Climate Chang Impacts on Water and Society and Adaptation ... · Climate Chang Impacts on Water and...

Toshio KoikeThe University of Tokyo

Climate Chang Impacts on Water and Societyand

Adaptation Strategy in Africa

Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, 15-16 August, 2013

- Climate and Water Changes, unequivocal and uncertain

- Date Integration, a science and technology challenge- GEOSS, a coordination mechanism for working together

Toshio KoikeThe University of Tokyo

Climate Chang Impacts on Water and Societyand

Adaptation Strategy in Africa

Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, 15-16 August, 2013

- Climate and Water Changes, unequivocal and uncertain

- Date Integration, a science and technology challenge- GEOSS, a coordination mechanism for working together

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.(IPCC AR4, 2007)

3

58 simulations by 14 models19 simulations by 5 models

Projected changesin extremes

It is very likely thatheavy precipitationevents will continue tobecome more frequent.

IPCC AR4

It is likely that areaaffected by droughtincreases.

5 5

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

6

Radiative Cooling

Radiative Cooling

Surface Heating

UpwardLong Wave Radiation

cloudDownwardLong Wave Radiation Radiative Warming

Stefan-Boltzmann Law: Material emits radiativeenergy with the forth power of the surface temperature.

7

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

warm wet

Warm Air - Cool Air and Dry Air - Wet Air

warmcool drywet

Regardless of kinds of gases,a same number of molecules isincluded in a certain volume of gasunder a certain temperature andpressure.

Dry air consists of nitrogen (MW=28)and oxygen (MW=16).The ratio is 4 to 1. Average MW=28.8In wet air, a certain number ofmolecules of nitrogen and oxygen arereplaced with the same number ofwater molecules of water (MW=18)

28.8

28.8

28.8

28.8 28.8

perfectly dry air

28.8

18.0

28.8

28.8 28.8

a little bit wet air

28.8

18.0

18.0

28.8 18.0

very wet air

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Which isHeavier?

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

warm wet

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

11 11

C02 increase

long-wave radiation

convection

sunshine

subsidence dry subsidence dryHeavyRainfall

radiation(green house effect)

--- convection equilibrium

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Temperature Saturated Water Vapor Pressure Cloud Formation

12 12

2XCo2

CO2

Heavier Rainfallin Smaller Area

Impacts of CO2 Increaseon the Water Cycle

Predicted by Models

Bigger Annual Variationof the Summer Rainfall in India

Heavy Rainfall around Japan（CCSR-NIES-JAMSTEC）

Variability of Climate and Water Cycle: Unique Roles of Water

Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections forextreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.

14

Toshio KoikeThe University of Tokyo

Climate Chang Impacts on Water and Societyand

Adaptation Strategy in Africa

Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, 15-16 August, 2013

- Climate and Water Changes, unequivocal and uncertain

- Date Integration, a science and technology challenge- GEOSS, a coordination mechanism for working together

mitigation adaptation

ClimateSystem

WaterResources

ManagementSystem

WaterCycle

Agriculture/FoodBiodiversity/Ecosystem

HealthEnergy

Coordinated and Integrated Efforts for Working Together

MDGsClimate Change Biodiversity

Climate Change

Sustainable Development

16

3rd GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI) Workshop : - El Jadida, Morocco4-5 February, 20133rd GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI) Workshop : - El Jadida, Morocco4-5 February, 2013

17

Reanalysis &Observations

20th CenturyGCM

Regional andSynoptic Changes

in Climate

Futureprojections

Select GCMsSelect GCMs

Numericalmodeling

Numericalmodeling

Global WeatherForecasts

Ground-basedObservations

Downscaling&

Bias correction

Downscaling&

Bias correction

CurrentFloods

Flood ForecastingAdaptation

FutureFloods

Downscaled ClimateVariables

Understanding ofLocal Circulation

MechanismsExtreme

weather events

Basin scale | Mesoscale | Regional scaleBasin scale | Mesoscale | Regional scale

FUTU

REPAST / PRESEN

T

Flood modelingFlood modeling

Satellite DataAssimilation

by Dr. Mutua

18

DB

DB

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020

A 1:高度成長社会

A2：多元化型

B1:持続発展型

B2：地域共存型

DB

DB

DB

DB

DB0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020

A 1:高度成長社会

A2：多元化型

B1:持続発展型

B2：地域共存型

DB

DB0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020

A 1:高度成長社会

A2：多元化型

B1:持続発展型

B2：地域共存型

DB

DB

DB

Meteorology

Ecosystem

AgricultureHydrology

LandUse

Climatology

Health

农业

เกษตรกรรม

농업

Where is data?How to access?

Technical Termsamong

DifferentDisciplines

Quality?Reliability?

18

10

10

10

10

10

10

9

10

11

12

13

14

10

10

15

16

1010 10 10 1010 10 10

Dat

a Si

ze,

Byte

s

2001

TeraFLOPSGigaFLOPS PetaFLOPS

109 1410 11 12 13 15 16 17 18

ExaFLOPS

Real Demonstrated Performance doing useful Science

10Compute Speed, FLOPS

2020

Computational Modeling in Two Stages;Computational Modeling in Two Stages;Driving Evolution & Enabling RevolutionDriving Evolution & Enabling Revolution

EvolutionaryEvolutionary

RevolutionaryRevolutionary

2010

2x 2 resolution;synoptic scales

2005

.25x .25 resolution;hurricanes, storm fronts

.25x .25 resolution;add cloud, chemistry,& radiation effects

Fully interactive (biology,chemistry, physics)ensemble simulations inan operational mode

2015

Nanotechnology

InformationPower Grid

HeterogeneousCluster

HomogeneousCluster

Interactivephysics, biology,chemistry;assimilation ofsatellite data

IPCC AR4 (2007): 40TB AR5 (2012): 2.6PB

19

20

Mejerda RiverPrecipitation Oct – Jan (1981-2000)

cccma_cgcm31

cccma_cgcm31_t63

Miroc32_hires

Mpi_echam5

Mri_cgcm23_2

Ukmo_hadcm3

GPCP

bccr_bcm20

cnrm_cm3

csiro_mk30

gfdl_cm21

csiro_mk35

gfdl_cm20

giss_model_eh

giss_model_er giss_aom iap_fgoals

1miroc32_

nedres

miub_echog

ncar_ccsm30

ncar_pcm1

ukmo_hadgem1

ingv_echam4

inmcm_30

ipsl_cm421

It is virtually certain thatdrought will become more severe.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

rain

fall

mm

/yea

r

Annual Average Rainfall

1986-20002051-2065

0

200

400

600

800

1000

rain

fall

mm

/yea

r

Annual Average Rainfall

1986-20002051-2065

0

200

400

600

800

1000

rain

fall

mm

/yea

r

Annual Average Rainfall1986-20002051-2065

AIN BEYA OUED SLOUGUIAKALAAT ESSENAM

Mejerda River

22

23

GCOM-W

GCOM-C

EarthCARE

GPM

ALOS-2 ALOS

Cryosat-2

SMOS

ADM-Aeolus

METEOSAT

MSGMTG

EPS Metop

Post EPS

SMAP

Satellite Observation Integration

26

m

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

0

2

4

6 Bir Lakhdar Souk Sebt 2

cm

Groundwater Level Variations (satellite-observed)

Groundwater Level Variations (ground-observed)

-10

-5

0

5

10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Future GW Variations

-1.3mm/year

GW

sto

rage

ano

mal

y (c

m)

18/20G

W s

tora

ge a

nom

aly

(cm

)GW (TWS – SM)GW (LDAS-WEBDHM)Inter-comparison

28

Soil Moisture Snow

MicrowaveRadiometer

Precipitation

Surface Emissivity & Temp.

Aqua

TRMM

Data Assimilation Coupled with Microwave Radiometer

LandSurfaceScheme

SnowPhysicsModel

CloudPhysicsModel

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

Prec

ipita

tion

pred

icta

bilit

y us

ing

DA

& P

MW

R/S

29

Surface roughnessField Experiment

Improved surfaceemission modeling

ARPS/LDAS

LA-RTM

Improvedsurface

conditions

IMDAS

DMRTw-t

A-RTMImproved

atmosphereconditions

Shadowing effectSatellite TBs

Low freq.

Satellite TBsHigh freq.

Obs. oper.

coupling

Feed back mechanism

GCM ReanalysisOutput

Research Framework by Dr. Kuria

3rd GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI) Workshop : - El Jadida, Morocco4-5 February, 20133rd GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative (AfWCCI) Workshop : - El Jadida, Morocco4-5 February, 2013

Experiments

TRMM (Obs.) No assimilation Assimilation (qv,qc,qs,qi)

After 1 hour

After 3 hours

TRMM (Obs.) • No assimilation poor simulation of theevent

• Simulates the eventwrong place• Persistent overestimation NW ~(32E,0N)

• Assimilation improves fore cast• Spatial pattern similar to observed(TRMM)• Quantitatively: still a way to go

by Dr. Mutua

1. Carbon Allocation Model allocates net primary production toleaf and root carbon pool.

2. Carbon-pool Update Model calculates carbon loss as normalturnover and drought stress loss.

3. Carbon-LAI conversion model calculates leaf area index,which is needed to run land surface model at next time step.

Hydro-SiB Dynamic Vegetation Model (DVM)

Seasonal Change of LAI by Coupled Model and Satellites

MODIS LAI

Simulated LAI

LAI: Simulated vs. MODIS

Standardized anomaly index (SA) for estimatedannual maximum leaf area index (green line) fromWEBDHM+DVM and observed annual crop productionin Tunisia (orange line).

River Runoff

33

Figure 5.7. Same as Figure 5.6., but for daily maximum land surface temperature.

Climate ChangeImpact Assessmentof Biomass Productionin the Volta River Basin

Precipitation Change Projected each Model

Air Temperature Change Projected each Model

issuesstake-holder

stake-holder

stake-holder

stake-holder

stake-holder

Sharing Data and InformationExchanging Knowledge, Experiences and Ideas

Working Together

Climate ChangeFlood, DroughtWater QualityFood SecurityBiodiversity

EnergyPolicyMaker

RiverManager NPO

Farmers

Public

HydrologyClimatologyEngineering

AgricultureEcology

RSGIS IT

Toshio KoikeThe University of Tokyo

Climate Chang Impacts on Water and Societyand

Adaptation Strategy in Africa

Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, 15-16 August, 2013

- Climate and Water Changes, unequivocal and uncertain

- Date Integration, a science and technology challenge- GEOSS, a coordination mechanism for working together

GEO, the Group on Earth ObservationsAn Intergovernmental Body

with 89 Members & 64 Participating Organizations• Earth Observation Summit I (July 2003: Washington DC)• EO Summit II (April 2004: Tokyo)• EO Summit III (February 2005: Brussels)• EO Summit IV (November 2007: Cape Town)• EO Summit V (November 2010: Beijing)

A Global, Coordinated, Comprehensive and SustainedSystem of Observing Systems

GEOSS

GEOSSGlobal Earth Observation System of Systems

Vision for GEOSSThe vision for GEOSS is to realize a future

wherein decisions and actions for the benefit ofhumankind are informed by coordinated,

comprehensive and sustained Earthobservations and information.

37

38

Jan. 2009

Feb. 2011

Sept. 2009

Feb. 2012

Jan. 2012

Feb. 2013

1st GEOSS African Water Cycle Symposiumin Tunis, Water-related Issues & Roles of EO

1st Task Team Meetingin Geneva, Strategyfor CoordinatedEO and CB

2nd African Water Cycle Symposium in Addis AbabaPlanning for Demonstration

GEO-UNESCO Joint Workshop in NairobiReport on Demonstrations and IWRM CB Program

3rd African Water Cycle Symposium in LibrevilleBasic Idea of Implementation, Statement to Rio+20

3rd African Water Cycle Coordination InitiativeWorkshop in El Jadida, Draft Implementation Plan

39Nov. 2013 1st GEOSS Africa & Asia Joint Water Cycle Symposium in Tokyo1st AfWCCI Implementation Plan and 2nd AWCI Implementation Plan

40

GEOSS African Water Cycle Coordination Initiative(AfWCCI)

Based on a collaboration between the Group on Earth Observations(GEO) and RBOs in Africa, Global Earth Observation System ofSystems (GEOSS) supports application of coordinated, comprehensiveand sustained Earth Observations and information across trans-boundary river basins in Africa, particularly focusing on:

Goal : To facilitate better managementin trans-boundary rivers in Africa

●Observation and data management●Capacity development on:observationdata archivingModelingPredictionclimate changeimpact assessmentdata integration

Improvement ofthe water resourcesmanagement capacity

ParticipatingMedjerda, Niger, Nile, L/Victoria, L/Chad, Okavango,Orange-Senqu, Senegal, Zambezi, Oum Er-Rabia,L’Ogooue