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RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020
CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020
Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts
The contents of this publication were made possible through the Strengthening Career
and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act (Perkins V) federal grant from the United States Department of Education
administered through Minnesota State Colleges and Universities.
In the chat field, please share your name, your role, and the organization that
you represent.
Who’s in the Virtual “Room”
RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020
CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020
Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts
MSP Metro Minnesota
Overview
4
• Community Profile• Workforce Impacts of COVID-19• Shifting Opportunities• Accessible Career Pathways
MSP Metro Minnesota
Access the full regional report here:http://www.realtimetalent.org/cte2020
IF YOU COULD DO ONE THING…
Of the following workforce-related
issues, which do you feel is the most important to be
addressed right now in your community?
Polling Question1. Improving broadband internet or technology
access2. Attracting younger talent / Addressing an aging
workforce3. Changing the variety or volume of local
educational offerings4. Providing immediate financial relief to small
businesses experiencing economic stress5. Increase supports for vulnerable populations
(this may include BIPOC communities, people with disabilities, disconnected youth, people experiencing poverty, the uninsured, or people who have become unemployed during the pandemic)
6. None of these issues need to be addressed in my community
Community Profile
6
6.3% Hispanic/Latinx
5.3% Hispanic/Latinx
American Community Survey 2014-2018.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
7American Community Survey 2014-2018.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
8
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
9NCES IPEDS 2017-18 awards and enrollment data.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
10
MSP Metro Minnesota
Community Profile
11DatabaseUSA, Accessed September 2020.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability
12
• Age• Race/ethnicity• Gender• Some medical conditions• Use of certain medications• Poverty and crowding• Certain occupations• Pregnancy
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability
13
MSP Metro Minnesota
When you think about the current economic
situation in your community, which of the following career fields do you feel has
the most challenging or pressing workforce
needs to be addressed right now? (select up to
two)
Polling Question
1. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources
2. Arts, Communications, and Information Systems
3. Business, Management, and Administration
4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology
5. Health Science Technology6. Human Services
When you think about your local school,
district, or consortium’s programming, how well
do you feel current program offerings
address your community’s most
challenging or pressing workforce needs right
now?
Polling Question
1. To a Great Extent2. Somewhat3. Very Little4. Not at all5. I do not know
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability
16
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability
17
MSP Metro Minnesota
Estimated 14% of local occupations by industry may
experience short-term job loss due to COVID-19.
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Occupational Vulnerability
18
Estimated 23% of local occupations are high
contact-intensity and may have higher than average exposure to COVID-19.
Based on analysis by Dingel, C. L., and B. Neiman (2020): “How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?” NBER Working Paper No. 26948.Leibovici, F., A. M. Santacreu, and M. Famiglietti (2020): “Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations,” FRB St. Louis Technical Report, URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/social-distancing-contact-intensive-occupations#:~:text=Food%20and%20beverage%20serving%20workers%20are%20at%20the%20bottom%20of,K%20to%2012th%20grade%20teachers.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast
19
5-Year Forecast Comparison in the MSP Metro
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast
20
COVID-19-Impacted High Contact-Intensity Occupation Employment 5-Year Forecast in the MSP Metro
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts
21
Unemployment Insurance Applicants as a Share of Total Labor Force by County, March 16 – August 27, 2020
Employment by County, 2020Q1
Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
MSP Metro Minnesota
August 2020 Unemployment (LAUS): 142,116 (8.1%)
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts
22Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts
23Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Mid-Term Occupational Impacts
24
MSP Metro Minnesota
COVID-19 has accelerated talent surplus anticipated in lower-wage, lower-education positions, particularly: 1) high contact-intensity
occupations and 2) positions that cannot be
done remotely.
Shifting Opportunities
25
Remote Work Jobs by County, 2020Q1
Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
26Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
27
Employment, Annual Openings, and Wages by Career Cluster
Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.
Career Cluster Employment Avg Ann Wages Job Ads
Ann Empl Growth
Ann Total Demand
Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics 29,930 $100,600 2,096 136 2,451
Information Technology 71,815 $92,800 7,107 755 6,219
Finance 93,624 $84,000 4,801 375 9,138 Health Science 166,062 $76,100 9,446 2,212 15,521
Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security 51,122 $69,900 1,436 155 4,987
Government & Public Administration 16,257 $69,900 502 67 1,511
Business, Management & Administration 342,196 $68,000 12,877 -57 36,986 Architecture & Construction 104,575 $65,700 2,284 900 12,350
Education & Training 111,023 $60,900 4,298 850 11,436
Arts, A/V Technology & Communications 35,963 $58,100 759 -124 3,772
Agriculture, Food & Natural Resources 70,063 $58,700 2,786 483 8,661 Marketing, Sales & Service 208,293 $55,200 14,204 258 27,561
Manufacturing 150,377 $48,600 5,864 -377 15,964
Transportation, Distribution & Logistics 136,739 $47,700 5,867 594 17,146
Human Services 123,350 $40,300 6,420 2,211 18,823 Hospitality & Tourism 216,694 $31,300 11,593 1,904 38,565
Total - All Occupations 1,875,117 $59,700 90,361 10,273 225,069
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
28
Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Registered Nurses• LPNs• Medical and Health Services
Managers• Medical Assistants• Physicians• Nurse Practitioners• Medical Secretaries• Physical Therapists• Medical Records Specialists• Nursing Assistants
Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Shifting Opportunities
29
Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Software Developers• Computer Systems Analysts• Network and Computer
Systems Administrators• Computer Occupations, All
Other• Computer Programmers• Web Developers and Digital
Interface Designers• Computer Network
Architects• Computer Network Support
Specialists
Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
MSP Metro Minnesota
Emerging Career Paths
30Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
Top Emerging Occupations March 1-August 31, 20201. Software Developers, Applications (+10%)2. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer and Truck Drivers (+15%)3. Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers
(+251%)4. Stock Clerks—Stockroom (+86%)5. Personal Care Aides (+108%)6. Insurance Sales Agents (+38%)7. Computer Systems Engineers (+5%)8. Nursing Assistants (+1%)9. Information Security Analysts (+19%)10. Loan Interviewers and Clerks (+131%)
New Job Postings by City, March 1-August 31, 2020
4,514
4,688
5,356
5,789
6,306
7,828
8,989
11,889
40,156
81,754
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Shakopee
Hopkins
Burnsville
Plymouth
Eagan
Minnetonka
Bloomington
Eden Prairie
St. Paul
Minneapolis
2020 2019
MSP Metro Minnesota
Emerging Skill Gaps
31Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.
Top 10 Skill Gaps in Twin Cities 7-County Metro
Name Candidates Openings Gap
Microsoft Excel 15,600 17,982 -2,382
Microsoft Office 14,643 16,489 -1,846
Microsoft Word 5,986 7,186 -1,201
Microsoft PowerPoint 4,718 5,909 -1,190
Finance 2,859 3,850 -991
Teaching/Training, School 5,373 6,326 -953
Manufacturing 2,851 3,566 -714
Microsoft Outlook 7,037 7,620 -583
Data Entry 1,259 1,767 -508
Automated External Defibrillators (AED) 401 862 -461
Top 10 Certification Gaps in Twin Cities 7-County Metro
Name Candidates Openings Gap
Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN) 555 1,100 -545
Class A Commercial Driver's License (CDL-A) 650 839 -189
First Aid Certification 1,143 1,322 -179
AED Essentials 133 253 -120
Commercial Driver's License (CDL) 628 747 -119
Certified Internal Auditor (CIA) 68 126 -59
AFAA Personal Fitness Trainer 77 132 -55
Certified Protection Professional (CPP) 12 66 -54
Certified Information Systems Auditor (CISA) 78 127 -49
Medical Technologist (Medical Technologists) 27 73 -46
MSP Metro Minnesota
Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less
32
MSP Metro Minnesota
33
MSP Metro Minnesota
Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less
Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher
34
MSP Metro Minnesota
Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher
35
MSP Metro Minnesota
Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher
36
MSP Metro Minnesota
Summary and Discussion
What piece of the data surprised, inspired, validated, or
challenged you?
Discussion Question 1
From your perspective, what are the most important
considerations in these data for Career and Technical Education
programs?
Discussion Question 2
What is one barrier that you can help remove for BIPOC
students?
Discussion Question 3
What additional information will you seek out next?
Discussion Question 4
What changes or evaluations to your program will you prioritize
next as a result of this data?
Discussion Question 5
43
Thank you!
If you have questions about this report, please contact:Erin Olson, Research Strategist, erin@realtimetalentmn.org
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