Campaigns and Campaign Finance. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008 Election in the...

Campaigns and Campaign Finance

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history

• Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

• There is an L in Public, but no L in FECA

Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission

• Not an issue in 2008, but may be in 2012

• Corporations and labor unions can spend unlimited amounts of money to call for the election or defeat of candidates all the way to election day.

Going for the Presidential Nomination

It will still cost you

The Need for Early Money in the Nomination

• It buys recognition and legitimacy

• It converts itself

• Provides Maximum flexibility

• The Lessons from 1990’s

The Lessons of Money in the Primary

• 1992

• 1996

• 2000

• 2004

The Consequences of Early Money

• A measure of success in the invisible primary

• The vicious cycle

• The candidates with the most money have won in recent years.

HOW TO PAY FOR IT: CAMPAIGN FINANCE IN 2008

From Uncle Sugar or on your own?

Campaign Finance in 2008

• The First Billion Dollar Presidential Election

– The Demise of Public Funding in the General Election

– The Rise of the Internet as a fundraising tool

• These produced a president who would spend ¾ of a billion for a job that pays 400,000.

Overall Spending in 2008

• Estimates are at $2.4 billion for the presidency

• $5.3 billion overall on 2008 Elections

Government Money in the Primary

• Federal Money is available in primary and general election

• There are Eligibility Requirements, caps on spending, and caps on raising

• 25 million from the G, and 50 million cap on spending

Federal Money in the 2008 Primaries

• Others have declined it in the past

• John Edward’s is the only serious candidate who goes for it

• The BCRA helped end this

• Candidate strategy helped end this

The Democratic Nomination

Democrats in the Invisible Primary

• Clinton

• Obama

Each had raised 100 million

The race begins

• Public Finance Plays a Minimal Role

• Edwards gets buried, Richardson gets crumbs

• The Rest drop out of the race

OBAMA VS CLINTON

The Clinton Strategy

• Knock out Blow on Feb 5th

• Reload for the Fall campaign

• Watch the Republicans fight it out all spring

Clinton What went wrong

• Maxed out donors

• Spent like a drunken sailor on shore leave

• Some real examples• By the end she has to borrow 11 million from

herself

The Obama Fundraising strategy

• Run the Long Campaign

• Rocky III- http://www.tubechop.com/watch/57772

• Build a lead, and continue to spend and raise

The Democrats in the Primary

Candidate Amount RaisedCompared to Spending Limit

Obama $414 Million 8x

Clinton $224 Million 4x

Edwards $53 Million 1x

Richardson $23 Million .3x

The Republicans

The Republican Invisible Primary

• Romney and Rudy

• McCain has problems

The Republicans in the Primary

Candidate Amount Raised Compared to Spending Limit

McCain $221 Million 4x

Romney $110 Million 2x

Giuliani $60 Million 1x

Paul $35 Million .7x

Thompson $24 Million .5x

Huckabee $16 Million .3x

The General Election

Money Rules the Day

Public Funding for General Election

• Each candidate could receive 84 million in public money

• No major party candidate had ever refused this money

• This money served to reduce campaign costs and remove any potential for corruption

Mc Cain and Public Financing• Runs as a reformer,

with BCRA as his primary reform achievement

McCain’s Decision to accept $84 million hindered his campaign

Obama and Public Funding

• Breaks his campaign promise to take public financing

• The 2008 DNC Platform says– “We support campaign finance reform to reduce

the influence of moneyed special interests, including public financing of campaigns combined with free television and radio time.”

• The DNC Stays mum on the issue during the campaign

Two simple statistics about the Obama campaign

• Obama raised more money than all other candidates combined

• Obama raised more than the RNC and DNC combined.

Other Sources of Money

• National Party Money– The RNC out raises the DNC– Limits on where they could spend it

• Third Party Groups

Obama has a huge Financial Advantage

McCain ObamaIndividuals $195,927,301 $656,610,810PACS $1,412,559 $1,280 Federal Funds $84,103,800 $0 Other $78,724,163 $83,450,000Total $360,167,823 $764,843,332

The Role of the Internet

• Publicity

• Instant Access

• Low Opportunity Costs

• Currently favors the Democrats

How Obama Raised the Money

• Increased use of internet

• Many donors (out of necessity)

• Early Announcement

The Myth of the Small donor

Money Converts itself• Obama used existing money to raise more

money and establish an unprecedented campaign force

• In September, Obama raised 150 million andObama raised an additional $104 Million in the last month of the Campaign.

What Obama did with the Money

He spent it, of course

Spending in the Battleground States

• Obama took the fight into McCain Territory• Obama Outspent McCain

– 4-1 in Indiana and Virginia– 3-1 in Florida– 2.5-1 in Ohio and Missouri

• Obama and the Democrats spent close to $100,000,000 on ads in October alone

• Outspent McCain by $100 million in the last week

Money Bought Infrastructure

• 2x as many campaign offices

• 5x-10x as many staff

• More Paid Workers

During the last week, McCain’s people are working for free

Money Provided the Ground Game Too

• Money enabled Obama’s campaign to contact 26% of voters.

• McCain’s campaign only contacted 18%

• 3.8 million on polling

• Resources enabled Obama to run a near-perfect campaign

Spending on Advertising

• 100 million more than McCain

• 5 million on an infomercial

• 4-1 in the battleground states

The Trickle Down Effect

• Helped other Democratic Candidates

• The DNC could focus on the Congressional Campaigns

What this means

The Future of Public Financing

• The party that championed it, served to kill it

• They have no strategic reason to favor it

Why Else Public Financing is dead

• The Internet

• The low federal limit

• The Taboo is broken

Money is not the most important thing in politics… but it is a close

second to whatever is