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© J. Gutt To answer thiese questions we have to: examine biological PROCESSES, define their TOLERANCE limits and determine RESISTANCE and RESILIENCE to change. How close to the cliff are we? Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we? What happens before we reach the cliff? What does the cliff look like? What happens behind the cliff?
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Biological processeson ecological temporal scales
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
A biology research program of theScientific Committee on Antarctic Reserach (SCAR)
studying
©: C. Cheng, P. Convey/BAS, J. Gutt, AWI/Marum, F. Hinz, H. Link, NASA, J. Turner
as of January 2014, partially updated January 2016,
provided by Julian Gutt
© J. Gutt
The Antarctic is changing, parts of it are changing rapidly:climate change & direct human impact
Rapid environmental change providesa globally significant opportunity
to understand ecosystem functioning.
Research demands unique but not isolated approaches.
Antarctic ecosystems are unique but not isolated.
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
© J. Gutt
To answer thiese questions we have to:
examine biological PROCESSES,
define their TOLERANCE limits and
determine RESISTANCE and RESILIENCE to change.
How close to the cliff are we?
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
What happens before we reach the cliff?
What does the cliff look like?
What happens behind the cliff?
Thresholds: when environmental changes cause rapidecological changes (similar to 'tipping point')
Resilience: self-repairing capacity of an ecosystem
Adaptation: adjustment of an organism to a changing or stabeenvironment.Modern biomolecular studies analyse the ratesat which genetic information is translated tometabolically relevant substances ("omics") and,thus, allow conclusions on the adaptation of organisms.
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Resistance: ability of an ecosystem to resist perturbations anddisturbances without being significantly changed
© J. Gutt
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
The scientific core of AnT-ERA are the three themes in the centrewith a cascadal flow of information from one level to the other,
and interacting with a broader scientific community.
© Gutt et al.
Theme 1:Physiological limits, biomolecular processes, and thresholds
Somero 2012. Ann Rev Mar SciBlue mussel, example from temperate intertidal (Califormia)
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Antarctic icefish: P. macropterus
© J. Gutt
© Gutt et al.
Theme 2: Population processes
© P. Convey, BAS; South Georgia
Introduced plants reproducedue to climate-inducedinvasion of pollinators.
Ecosystem functioning changeswhere predators invade
© BAS; South Georgia© J. Gutt, Peter I. Island
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
- carbon storage,- maintenance of biocomplexity,- production and regeneration- response to climate change- identification of drivers
Theme 3: Ecosystem functioning & services
• experiments• models• field work
Examples of simulations of benthic dynamics, e.g.disturbance by and recolonisation after iceberg impact (left) and SO deep-sea dynamics (right).
Model performance:M. Potthoff, AWI
© J. Gutt
• scientific (results and) reviews
• contributions to other initiatives, e.g., annual updates of theAntarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report
• capacity building (APECS & emerging national programmes)
• outreach
Communication - Dissemination - Coordination
Deliverables
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Additional:IASCANTOSAPECSSOOSIWCANTABIFSC-ATAS (SCAR)LGPANTOSGACS other nat. &internat. surveys
AntEco
ICEDbiodiversity patterns
system evolution,governance, mitigation
CCAMLR living ressources
ACCE
AnT-ERA
adaptation
SOOSbiological processes:thresholds & resilienceunder climate change
genes, populations,
pelagic, circumpolarclimate, fisheries,biogeochemistry
ecosystems
AntClim21
physical, biological,chemical parameters
predictions: atmosphere, cryosphere,ocean
EGBAMM
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Relationships to other scientific initiatives
© J. Gutt
© J. Gutt
Why now?
New tools
Globally significant
(Rapid) change expected to continue
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
© J. Gutt
Tools & Implementation
• in situ research (e.g. new key sites, new technology, experiments)
• laboratory approaches („-omics“, physiology)
• in silico analyses (process modelling, advanced data mining)
• Mini-grants
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
© J. Gutt
Scientific steering committee:L. Peck, C. Verde, B. Adams, I. Hogg, D. Wall, A. Takahashi, V. Cummings,I.-Y. Ahn, C. Smith, E. Isla, I. Schloss, J. Xavier, S. Ott, J. Gutt (chief officier)
AntClim 21 liaison: T. BracegirdleICED liaison: E. MurphyIASC liaison: M. KędraAntEco liaison: D. CowanAPECS representatives: C. Suckling & T. McIntyreEASIZ ex officio: G. di Prisco
Three preparatory meetings:Castiglionchello, May 2010; Delmenhorst, Oct 2011; Modena, Jan 2012
Draft of the proposal distributed for discussion and contributions toLS SSG & "SCAR community" plus approx. 100 external experts.
Three official reviews (rating 1-10): average 8.3, science: 9.0
Approved by SCAR delegates: July 2012 (Portland OSC)
Official start: July 2013 (Barcelona, Biology Symp.)
Re-evaluation: 2016/17
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Achievements (since 2013)
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Scientific output• peer-reviewed papers• special volumes edited by AnT-ERA SC members• official reports
Capacity building• AnT-ERA workshop Molecular and Genetic Advances, Napoli 2014• AnT-ERA workshop Interactions between Biological and Environmental Processes,
Barcelona 2015• Contributions to many workshops, e.g. APECS, ANTOS, 1st SCAR Horizon Scan.
Dissemination of scientific information• Web-site ( 52 000 clicks) & mailing list (>550 members)∼• Major contributions to SCAR conferences and symposia• Updates of the ACCE report to ATCM• Contributions to the Antarctic Environments Portal
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
Research projects under the leadership of or with major contributions from AnT-ERA SC members
• Polarstern 82 and 96 (Isla)• James Clark Ross 15004 (Xavier)• Cape Adare Expedition (Cummings)• TEAM-Fish (di Prisco)
Support of early career scientists through• travel mini-grants• supervision/teaching• chairing and orgganising APECS workshops
Achievements (since 2013)
Program Planning Group:Delmenhorst-workshop, Oct 2011, missing: L. Peck, V. Cummings
Join the ultimate scientific challenge! - How close to the cliff are we?
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