Baselines for Environmental Restoration: Species, Habitats...

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Steven Murawski University of South Florida College of Marine Science

March 7, 2012

Baselines for Environmental Restoration: Species, Habitats, & Ecosystems

Species Habitats Ecosystems

smurawski@usf.edu

Role(s) of environmental baselines in restoration planning for species, habitats and ecosystems

Examples of the use of baselines in specific restoration and recovery programs

Considerations in the choice and use of environmental baselines

Filling the baseline “Gap”: Importance of broad scale observing & research

Overview

Provide the scale against which to assess injury from specific natural or anthropogenic shocks

Can (under certain circumstances) aid in setting objective, achievable goals for environmental restoration (e.g., end points)

In combination with robust monitoring programs, baselines inform the choices of goals and trajectories to achieving societal aims of restoration

Importance of Environmental Baselines

Mangrove Losses in Florida

Percent Loss0 20 40 60 80 100

Biscayne Bay

Tampa Bay

All Florida

Mangrove ecosystems are a major nursery area for a wide array of biota and a carbon sink Much of west Florida’s mangroves have been

Lost, but can be restored using salt marsh restoration first as “nurseries” Chronic Resource Injury

Long-term wetlands loss Northern Gulf of Mexico Related to: Sediment starvation Channelization (oil & gas) Subsidence SLR

Boesch et al.

Broad-scale context: Overlap of fish larvae and the BP spill

Murawski/USF

Dissolved oxygen profiles for 419 validated profiles as compared to mean and standard deviation for 1o ocean climatology for area around the wellhead. Vertical red dashed line indicates the DO2 level for hypoxia (1.4 mL/L) source: World Ocean Atlas (NOAA)

Hyp

oxic

Lev

el

Acute & Local Resource Injury

Such as deep DO in the Gulf of Mexico

Shifting Baselines & the role of Complexity

Selecting Informative Baselines under environmental variation (un-achievable or set too low?

Timelines of degradation & recovery

Role of Adaptive Management Approaches

Considerations in the Use of Baselines

Carlos Duarte, et al. 2009. Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets. Estuaries and Coasts DOI 10.1007/s12237-008-9111-2

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When do we declare victory?

California Sea Lion

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Land

ings

(mt m

eats

)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Surv

ey b

iom

ass

(g/to

w m

eats

)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Sea Scallops, U.S. Georges Bank

Sometimes nominal baselines shoot too low….. Roles for models

A Typical Stock Undergoing collapse…..and recovery

Moratorium

Developing Indicators and Restoration Actions is an Exercise in Adaptive Management

Baselines

Annual Reprt 2007-2008

Skin Ulcers on Red Snapper ^

Conger eel

tilefish

Southern hake

West Florida Shelf

Northern Gulf Can we substitute space for time?

Northern Gulf West Florida Shelf

Importance of Filling the Baseline “Gap” • Many regions and issues have little to no

baseline monitoring • For example, wrt Deepwater Horizon,

confounds injury assessment

• Robust but directed Observing programs need to fill specific gaps