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© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.
Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified,
or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.
Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012
Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics
Join us today on Twitter
at #EXPAuto.
Or, follow us on Twitter
@Experian_Auto
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Presentation Overview
4th Quarter 2012 Automotive Market Overview
• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
• Vehicle Registrations
• New and Used
• New Vehicle Market Share
• Purchase Loyalty
• Corporate and Brand
• Additional Industry Insight
• Purchase Frequency
• Market Share and Loyalty Efficiency
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
Experian Automotive Driving the automotive industry forward
Experian Automotive enables clients to better understand the
market, the vehicles and the people who buy them.
MARKET VEHICLES PEOPLE ● ●
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets
National Fraud
Database
More than 700 million vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including more than 280 million vehicles in operation
Includes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events
Over 7 billion vehicle history records, incl. 295 million title brands and 125 million accident related events
Online Activity
Databases
Credit Databases
Consumer Marketing Databases
Simmons National
Consumer
Study
North American Vehicle
Database
Integrated Information Assets
50,000 + adults surveyed annually
8,000+ brands in 450+ product categories
Measures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile
700+ psychographic measures
Easily extrapolated to any target file
25 million Internet users interacting with one million Websites across 160+ industries
Average of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year
Consumer
2 million credit inquiries daily
1.3 billion transaction updates/month
99.9% system availability
1.3 second response rate
220 million credit active consumers
50 million public records
Business
22 million businesses
235 million
consumers,
113 million
households
1,500+ data
attributes per
record
Attitudinal
segments
and touch-points
3,200 public and
proprietary
sources
110 million catalog
buyers
148 million
magazine
subscribers
Approximately 600,000 known fraud records
186+ million cross-industry credit applications
215+ million consumer
200 +demographic and credit records
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
80.4 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less
There are 246,953,406 light duty vehicles on the road
80.4%
Average Age of Vehicles (years)
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Change in VIO vs. Q4 2011:
13,986,000 vehicles added
11,212,000 out of operation
There are 246,953,406 light duty vehicles on the road
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Length of Ownership
Average Length of Ownership (months) for New Vehicles
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
Current VIO – Vehicle Segment
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Top 5 Segments = 49.9 percent of VIO
Hybrid Vehicles represent 1.03 percent of current VIO
(nearly half are Prius)
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
Current VIO – Percent Share
Vehicles In Operation:
Share by Manufacturer
• Nearly 60 percent of all
vehicles in operation are
Domestic brands
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
Import Brand VIO Share
VIO
Sh
are
Current VIO – Import Share Trend
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
U.S. Vehicle Registrations - New
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
U.S. Vehicle Registrations - New
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
U.S. Vehicle Registrations - Used
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
U.S. Vehicle Registrations: New and Used
Q4 2012 up 295,000 units
(9.4%) vs Q4 2011
16
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive
Used Vehicle Registrations
Relatively stable quarter over
quarter, with Q4 2012 showing
third straight drop (-2.5%)
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
2011
2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive Corporation
New Vehicle Market: Calendar Year Comparison
Chrysler: +265k units
Honda: +247k units
Toyota: +431k units
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive Corporation
New Vehicle Market:
Honda: +65k units
Toyota: +74k units
VW: +25k units
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
Market Changers
Ranked by Unit Change
Source: Experian Automotive
Accord and Civic up a
combined 55,000 units
Compass and Liberty
down a combined
10,000 units
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
M&M’s (Market Movers)
Ranked by % change
Ne
w R
eg
istr
atio
ns
Source: Experian Automotive
Pathfinder up over
11,000 units GS350
up nearly 5,000 units
RDX up nearly 5,000 units
Fiat 500 also up
nearly 5,000 units
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 2012 Performance
New Vehicle Registrations Source: Experian Automotive
New entries equal nearly 94,000 additional sales
for 4th Quarter
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
Who is up?
• Toyota 1.6%
• Chrysler 0.7%
• Honda 0.7%
• VW 0.5%
• Kia 0.1%
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Other
2012
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
Who is down?
• GM -1.5%
• Ford -1.2%
• Hyundai -0.3%
• Nissan -0.2%
CY 2011 vs CY 2012 Market Share
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2011
Source: Experian Automotive
VW
Kia
Nissan
Hyundai
VW
Kia
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
Market Share Trend
24
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
Who is up?
• Subaru 0.3%
• M-Benz 0.05%
Subaru
M-Benz
Volvo
BMW
Mazda
Mitsubishi
2012 Who is down?
• Mitsubishi -0.2%
• Mazda -0.1%
• BMW -0.1%
Subaru
M-Benz
Volvo
BMW
Mazda
Mitsubishi 2011
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis – The ‘Others’ CY 2011 vs CY 2012 Market Share
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
Market Share Analysis: Segment Level
Full Size
Pickup
Small Car Economy
• Small Car Economy and Hybrid car
segments topped market share gains
• Upscale Luxury and Mid range cars
also had strong increases
Source: Experian Automotive
Ma
rke
t S
ha
re C
ha
ng
e
Q4 2011 vs Q4 2012 Market Share
Upscale Luxury
Hybrid Car
SUV Entry Level
• Pickups, SUVs and CUV segments
had greatest drops in share
Mid Range
Car Standard
SUV Large
CUV Mid
Range
Small
Pickup
Mid Range
Car Lower
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27
Market Share Analysis U.S. Imports vs. Domestics
Imp
ort
Bra
nd
M
ark
et
Sh
are
2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Experian Automotive
Reg
istr
ati
on
s
Import brands over 50 percent share
Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon
Cash For Clunkers
2011
Japan Tsunami
2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28
Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations and VIO
Import Brand Market Share
Mark
et
Sh
are
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 30
Loyalty Methodology
•Multiple Levels
Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.
Provides complete view of repurchase activity
Garage Loyalty at the Brand Level
BMW
BMW
BMW
Lexus
Loyal
Not Loyal
Disposed Vehicle: Subsequent Purchase
Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.
Essentially tracking vehicle replacement
Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
Disposal Loyalty at the Corporate Level
Dodge
Dodge
Chrysler
Ford
Loyal
Not Loyal
Disposed Vehicle Subsequent Purchase
Owned Vehicle:
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 31
Garage Loyalty at the Brand Level
BMW
BMW
BMW
Lexus
Loyal
Not Loyal
Disposed Vehicle: Subsequent Purchase
Loyalty Types
•Multiple Levels
Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella
Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level.
Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
Disposal Loyalty at the Corporate Level
Dodge
Dodge
Chrysler
Ford
Loyal
Not Loyal
Disposed Vehicle Subsequent Purchase
Corporate Loyalty Example:
Brand Loyalty Example:
Owned Vehicle:
Owned Vehicle:
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32
Market Overview - Loyalty
Source: Experian Automotive
Q4 2012 Corporate Loyalty
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33
33
Market Overview - Loyalty
Corporate Loyalty by Quarter
Source: Experian Automotive
2009 2010 2011 2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34
34
Market Overview - Loyalty
Corporate Loyalty by Quarter
Source: Experian Automotive
2009 2010 2011 2012
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35
Corporate Loyalty – Impact in Q4 2012 Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive
Corp
ora
te L
oyalty
Loyalty Impact on New Registrations
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36
Source: Experian Automotive
Market Overview - Loyalty
Q4 2012 Brand Loyalty
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 37
Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q4 2012
Source: Experian Automotive
• Cadillac had highest
increase, with their
brand loyalty jumping
nearly 5 percent vs.
Q4 2011
• Subaru had the
second highest gain, a
4.6 percent gain
• Luxury brands made
up 5 of top 10 gainers
Q4 2011 vs Q4 2012 Brand Loyalty: ranked by percentage increase
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 38
Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10
38
Source: Experian Automotive
• Ford Fusion owners
were most brand
loyal, with six out of
ten returning to Ford
• Ford vehicles made
up eight of the top ten
in brand loyalty
• In addition, Chevrolet,
and Kia both had
vehicles in top ten
Model Owned
Q4 2012 Brand Loyalty
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 39
Corporate Loyalty: 2011 vs 2012
39
Corporate Loyalty – Annual Summary
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 40
2007 – Who took from Whom?
Net Owner Migration
GM Ford
Toyota
Chrysler Source: Experian Automotive
Honda
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 41
2007 – Who took from Whom?
64,000
Net Units
Ford (471,254)
GM (330,313)
Chrysler (225,213)
Honda 325,555
Toyota 701,225
Net Owner Migration
GM Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 42
Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM Ford
Source: Experian Automotive
Toyota Honda
CY 2012: Who took from Whom?
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 43
CY 2012: Who took from Whom?
68,855
Net Units
GM (277,272)
Ford 6,957
Chrysler 23,713
Honda 105,848
Toyota 140,754
Net Owner Migration
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 46
Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases
Source: Experian Automotive
Vehicle Segment
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 47
Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases
Source: Experian Automotive
Avg = 56 mths
Vehicle Brand
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 48
Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases
Source: Experian Automotive
Vehicle Model
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 49
Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases
Source: Experian Automotive
Vehicle Model: Ford
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 50
Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases
Source: Experian Automotive
Vehicle Model: BMW
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 51
MARKET SHARE AND
LOYALTY EFFICIENCY
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 52
Market Share by Segment Coverage
Source: Experian Automotive
Mark
et
Sh
are
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 53
Corporate Loyalty by Segment Coverage
Source: Experian Automotive
Co
rpo
rate
Lo
yalt
y
© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 54
Conclusions
Average age of vehicles on the road continues to increase, while length of ownership drops since peak in 2009
Growth in new vehicles registrations continues, with Q4 having strong percentage gain (9.4%) than prior quarter, while 2012 annual registrations were up more than 1.5 million units vs 2011
Volume gains led by mid-size cars: Accord, Civic, Focus, Corolla, Camry
Toyota, Chrysler, Honda, VW and Kia gained market share, while GM, Ford, Hyundai and Nissan lost share
Ford on top in Corporate Loyalty, but battle continues to be tight with GM and Toyota.
New vehicle purchase frequency varies dramatically by brand and model
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