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Presented By:
11/15/16
Releasing the Full Capacity of DERs through Flexibility
Speakers:
JeffreyNorman,VicePresidentofIndustrySolutions,AutoGrid Systems
AdamTodorski,SeniorDirectorProductTechnology,AutoGrid Systems
Moderator:
Elta Kolo,Analyst,GridEdge,GTMResearch
2GTM Research
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Today’sSpeakers
4GTM Research
Agenda
DistributedEnergyResourcesEvolvinginDemandResponsePrograms1
ReleasingtheFullCapacityofDERsthroughFlexibility2
Q&A3
GTM Research
DistributedEnergyResourcesEvolvinginDemandResponsePrograms
6GTM Research
BuildingElectricityMarketsoftheFuture
Innovation for Market—Based Deployments of DERs
AggregationisakeyforDERintegrationatasystemanddistributionlevel,inthiswayincreasingthevalueoftheoffering.
AnimatingMarketsforDistributedEnergy
Resources
RegulatoryGuidance
ElectricityMarket(Re)design
ThirdPartyTechnologyandServiceProviders
EmpoweringcustomerstobecomeactiveelectricsystemparticipateswillcomefromappropriateadoptionofDistributedEnergyResources(DERs)
Affordableandreliableelectricitysystem
7GTM Research
ValueofFlexibilityfromDERs
FlexibilityCapability GridValue
Capacity Canreducethegrid’speakloadandflattentheaggregatedemandprofileofcustomers
• Avoidedgeneration,transmission,anddistributioninvestment
• Minimizegridlosses• Reduce therateofequipmentdegradation
Energy Canshiftloadfromhigh-pricetolow-pricetimes Avoidedproductionfromhigh-marginal-costresources
DERintegration Canreshape loadprofilestobettermatchrenewableenergyproductionprofiles
Mitigatedrenewableintegrationchallenges(e.g.,ramping,minimumload)
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
Value of Flexibility
Aggregated DER flexibility is valued under existing demand response program schemes for ISOs/RTOs and utilities. With DERs available atdifferent levels of the grid, opportunities and challenges arise with respect to markets and market design in addition monetizationstrategies for capacity and energy.
8GTM Research
61%23%
16%
DemandResponseAllocationinISO/RTOTerritories
Behind-the-Meter Generation in MISO, PJM and SPP in Delivery Year 2016/2017Makes up 21.2% of the System-Wide Flexibility
Source: MIS, PJM, ERCOT, CAISO, NYISO, ISONE, SPP1MW include maximum availability not maximumactivation.
31.3 GW16.6 GW
Total DR Available per ISO/RTO BTMG in MISO, SPP and PJM
38%
37%
8%
6%5%4%2%
9GTM Research
SystemNeedsAreChanging
January,140,510June,141,678
February,143,129 July,143,633
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
1 3 5 7 9 11
MW
Month2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Although PJM has traditionally been a summer peaking system, it is evident that this fact is slowly changing. For 2015, the winter peak in February andsummer peak in July were nearly equal in the RTO territory.
PJMMonthly RTO Peaks 2010 to 2016
Source: PJM
10GTM Research
For the July 25th peaking summer day, between the hours of 14:00 to 19:00 there was approximately 600MWof economically scheduled DR flexibility that provided relief in the BGE territory.
HeatDayPeakLoadTriggersEconomicDemandResponseinBGETerritoryonJuly25,2016
Load in PJM Territory During Heat Days Load in BGE Territory During PJMDeclared Heat Days
7/25/2016,
75,000
85,000
95,000
105,000
115,000
125,000
135,000
145,000
155,000
1:00 3:00 5:00 7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00
MW
Hour
7/21/2016 7/22/2016 7/23/2016 7/24/2016
PJM issued hot weather alerts for July 21 to July 27. System capacity peaked on July 25, reaching amaximum load of over 150,000MW in the RTO territory at 16:00 on July 25.
2,800
7,800
1:00 3:00 5:00 7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00
MW
Hour7/21/20167/22/20167/23/2016
Source:PJM
*Actualreductionsachievedwillbeknownafterallindividualcustomermeterdataisprovidedforsettlements– submissiondeadlineforeconomicenergysettlementsis60daysfollowingevent.
Source:PJM
Releasing the Full Capacity of DERs through FlexibilityJeff Norman, VP Industry Solutions, AutoGridAdam Todorski, Senior Director Product Technology, AutoGrid
Rise of the DERs at Grid Edge
A complex, real-time energy network (aka the Energy Internet)§ Distributed energy resources§ Renewables § Customers as consumers
and suppliers§ Value through optimization
12
Inherent Challenges with DERs
New Technologies Intermittency
Integration with Existing Grid Communications Business Model
New Approach: Flexibility Management14
Solar, DG
HVAC, Lighting
Combined Heat & Power Plants
Thermostats, Water Heaters
Battery Storage
Energy Resources
Electric Vehicles
Transmission & Distribution
Wholesale Energy Markets
Value Streams
Behind-the-Meter Cost Reduction
$$
Resource Flexibility
Unleashing That Potential Requires Challenging Some Common Assumptions
NEW THINKINGMYTHS
Distributed generation, storage, and demand response are separate categories
with different purposes
MYTH #1
New Thinking: All Are DERs18
Solar HVAC, LightingCombined Heat & Power Plants
Thermostats, Water Heaters
Distributed Energy Resources
Distributed Generation Energy Storage Demand Response
Battery Storage
Other DERs
Electric Vehicles
What others have said…
Yes, 20%
No, 80%
Is the electricity industry prepared for how the surge of DERs at the grid edge will change utility business models?
Source: GTM Squared “Annual Survey Report 2016: The Future of Global Electricity Systems”
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DERs are a threat to grid stabilityMYTH #2
What others have said…
33.9%
26.5%
9.2%
15.8%
4.6%
To what extent do you believe distributed generation represents a threat to your business?
Source: Black & Veatch 2015 Strategic Directions: U.S. Electric Industry Report
Major/ moderate threat
Minor threat, but with significant long-term repercussions
Minor threat, but with limited long-term repercussions
No threat
Don’t know
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Do you:• Get ready to pay millions or tens of millions for your new seasonal
capacity peak?• Spin up a peaker plant?• Curse your customers for having deployed solar, which has pushed
your daily load curve into the early evening and threatens to wreak all sorts of other havoc?
Scenario: it’s the third day of a late July heat wave and you’re about to eclipse your seasonal peak by 3%!
New Thinking
Or, do you help your customers buy batteries and:• Have a reliable load-shifting capacity resource right where demand is• Facilitate the integration of rooftop PV and leverage it as a distribution
asset• Opportunistically self-supply or sell ancillary services
Scenario: it’s the third day of a late July heat wave and you’re about to eclipse your seasonal peak by 3%!
<1 s2-4 s10-30 mins
Hours/Days
Months/Years
System Planning
Governor ResponseRegulationReservesCapacity
Event Based DRDR in Capacity Auctions/Resourc
e Adequacy Programs
ManagedSmart
Inverters
DERs with Real-timeControls
24
New Thinking: What Can’t You Do with DERs?
§ Active utility interaction with customer sited storage and generation can be the norm – just like DR
§ Good customer engagement tools can help expand DR programs and integrate DER programs
§ Existing DR resources can be forecast and controlled alongside storage and DG to respond at all time scales
Response Time of Resources
You can’t do much more with old assets like window A/C units and water heaters
MYTH #3
New Thinking: Sometimes a Cigar Isn’t Just a Cigar
With good software, these assets can deliver predictable, precise, targeted, and fast-acting load relief
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Flexibility Management
Predictable, flexible capacity
You can’t count on voluntary DR for grid operations
MYTH #4
New Thinking: “Dispatch-Grade” Load Shed Forecasts28
Forecast vs. Actual Curtailed LoadActual Load AutoGrid Forecast Single Methodology Forecast
kW C
urta
iled
Load
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.5
Erro
r (kW
)
DR Event
Load Forecasting Error Single Methodology ErrorAutoGrid Forecasting Error
Data from 20 Behavior DR events at a major utility
What others have said
Source: Utility Dive, State of the Electric Utility 2016
The best way to integrate these DERs is asset-by-asset to reduce risk
MYTH #5
New Thinking: It’s not about each asset or program, it’s about the network
C&I DR
BYOT
Smart Thermostat
Residential DLC
Building Optimization
Interruptible Gas Programs
MISO Registration
Storage
DERs
EVSEs
Flexibility Management
C&I DR
BYOT
Smart Thermostat
Residential DLC
Interruptible Gas Programs
MISO Registration
Flexibility Management: All Assets, All Services, All Customers32
Storage Mgmt
Behavioral DR
Bring-Your-Own-Thing
C&I Direct Load Control
Demand Charge Mgmt
All ServicesDERMS
All Customer ClassesResidential Commercial Industrial
Virtual Power Plant
All Assets
Flexibility Management
Solar
Thermostats
CHP
Water Heaters, HVAC
Storage
EV/EVSE
Lighting
DER
DR
All ServicesCapacity Energy Ancillary
ABOUT AUTOGRID
33
AutoGrid Company Overview
Company Facts
§ Established in 2011 at Stanford University
§ Headquartered in Silicon Valley
§ Operations in North America, Europe, APAC
§ ~50 employees
§ Strategic Investors include regulated and deregulated global energy companies
Leading Provider of Flexibility Management Applications
25+Global Energy Customers
2000MWDERs Contracted Globally
50 MillionEnd Customers
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AutoGrid Flex
• DERMS
• Demand Response
• Virtual Power Plants
• Storage Optimization
Use Cases
35
Solar, DG
HVAC, Lighting
Combined Heat & Power Plants
Thermostats, Water Heaters
Battery Storage
Energy Assets
Electric Vehicles
$$
Resource Flexibility
Wholesale Markets
Transmission & Distribution
Value Streams
Behind-the-Meter
To Learn More§ Contact us
§ jeffrey.norman@auto-grid.com§ adam.tordorski@auto-grid.com
§ Go to our website www.auto-grid.com for:§ White paper: “The Economic Value of Next-Generation DR”§ Lots of other info!
§ Meet with us at Energy Storage Summit (12/7) or DistribuTECH (1/31)
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