Assessing Needs of Technologies: Lessons from China Ji Zou Renmin University of China Liyan Li China...

Assessing Needs of Technologies: Lessons from China

Ji ZouRenmin University of China

Liyan LiChina National Development and Reform Comm

ission

Arnoma Hotel, Bangkok, ThailandJune 26-29, 2007

Contents

• Matching circumstances in China

• Strategies for TNA

Matching Circumstances in China

• Significant imbalance of economic development over different parts of the territory, population groups, and industrial sectors (most advanced and most underdeveloped)

• Diversity of potential technology needs: based on diversified economic sectors, income level/capital power, market demands, human resources, etc.

Strategies for Need Assessment

• In an integrative manner (globally and locally environmental, economic, energy, and social consideration);

• Consultation with technology experts;

• With a larger sample for survey or broad involvement of stakeholders; and

• Repeated and dynamic process: several rounds.

Main Elements for the Exercise• Establish working team: NDRC supported by

universities and research institutes• Develop criteria for assessment• Identify list of candidate technologies• Identify list of experts as questionnaire sample• Communication with the sample experts• Consultation with stakeholders from industries

and the public• Consultation with different departments of

national and local government to interact with the country’s strategies and policies

• Methodology for data and information processing: e.g., Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), synthesis of opinions; brain storming, etc.

Assessment Process• Establish interagency working team• Set up criteria for assessment• Gather and compile relevant information and

data from different sources• Design questionnaire and consultation

meetings and identify experts for survey• Hold scoping meeting• Determine priorities of technology needs by

series of techniques for assessment:– e.g., Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with equal

weights for different items of criteria

Assessment Criteria (1)

Root Objectives:

• Global climate protection

• Local sustainable development: improvement of local environmental quality; economic development; and social equity.

Assessment Criteria (2)

Elements of the criteria

• Environmental and resources concern: global and local

• Technological concern

• Economic concern

• Social concern

Assessment Criteria (3)

Environmental and resource Concerns• Resource availability/advantages• Mitigation: emission reduction against basel

ine/BAU emission level and carbon sink increase– GHGs mitigation;– Improvement of local environmental quality

• Adaptation– Risk assessment and management and plannin

g– Specific technologies in various areas

Assessment Criteria (4)Technological Concerns: Mature degree of

technologies• Function reliability of technologies;• Cost of technology application;• Matching local environment: e.g., resource

inputs, weather and geographic conditions, human capital, other enabling environment;

• Market penetration of technology application; and

• Easiness of wider use of technology in terms of technical know-how, transaction cost, and cultural acceptance.

Assessment Criteria (5)

Economic Concerns

• Internal Return Rate (IRR)• Payback period• Mitigation and adaptation costs• Impacts on competitiveness power

(dependency, lock-in, comparative advantage in international trade)

Assessment Criteria (6)

Social Concerns

• Broader links with other economic sectors and population groups

• Employment and poverty alleviation (substitution over manpower)

Priority Areas for mitigation• Industrial boilers

• District central heating and power cogeneration (CHP)

• Industrial waste heat and gas recovery in coal-mining, steel and cement sectors

• Oil saving and switching to bio-fuel;

• Electric motors

• Efficient buildings

Priority Area for mitigation (Cont’d)• Green lighting

• Energy saving in the public facilities (air conditioning, heating, and lighting in shopping mall, office buildings, museum, entertainment/sport facilities…)

• System optimization: streamlined design, retrofit and sound management

• Setting up energy saving monitoring and energy saving service system (ESCO, etc)

Priority Areas for Adaptation

• Systematic observation of climate and weather changes;

• Impact, risk and vulnerability assessment;• Early warning/forecasting system for

extreme weather events;• Water collection and water-saving

irrigation;• Crop and tree seed development and

transformation to fit changing climate

Candidate Technologies (1)

28 technologies are selected as candidates for assessment. The covering categories are as follows:

• Clean coal and power generation (Ultra supercritical, IGCC, etc);

• Motor technologies – fuel economy: engine, vehicle mass reduction,

gearing;– hybrid power;– electric vehicle technologies

• Metallurgy technologies;• Coal-bed methane recovery;

Continued

Candidate Technologies (2)• Cement technologies;

• Biomass technologies;

• Key technologies for wind-powered generation (material, control tech…);

• Solar heating;

• Solar Photovoltaic cell;

continued

Candidate Technologies (3)• Fuel cell;• Control technologies related to energy

efficiency, such as frequency conversion;• Amorphous transformer manufacturing;• Harmless waste-burned generation• Risk assessment and management technologies

on extreme weather events;• Modeling and forecasting technologies on

extreme weather events; and• Technologies on systematic optimization of

water resource management

Problems in the Exercise (1)

• Identifying the right experts to be in the survey sample;

• Determination the appropriate scale of survey sample;

• Knowledge limitation of experts on technologies employed in different sectors and fields (in case of overall integrative assessment);

Continued

Problems in the Exercise (2)

• Debate on incomparable indicators in developing assessment criteria (different weight over different.

• Failure in consistency test for significant amount of experts in pilot survey

• Low returning rate of questionnaires: awareness, weak incentives, etc.

• Update list of candidate technologies to be assessed: multi-round assessment

Challenge

How to link and coordinate the needs at levels of projects, companies, sectors, regions, and the whole country?

How to address the dynamics of technology changes and market changes?

Thank you for your attention

Comments are welcome!

zouji@ruc.edu.cnlily@ccchina.gov.cn