Arne Bjørlykke Seminar

Arne Bjørlykke Seminar5 okt.- 06

”Geologi for Samfunnet”

Geohazard ekspertise i Norge og internasjonalt utfordringer

Oddvar Kjekstad

Geohazards, hva legger vi i det?Hendelser forårsaket av geologiske forhold eller prosesser som

representerer alvårlige trusler for mennesker, eiendom/infrastrukureller naturen

På land• Skred• Jordskjelv• Vulkaner• Flom

Offshore• Undervannssked• Tsunami• Mud vulkaner • Grunn gass

Våre nasjonale ”Geohazard” problemer

200 m3 – 250 m3

Naturkatasrofer i Mellom Amerika

The Casita slide

Hurrican Mitch, Nicaragua1998

Venezuela Rainfall, 1999-

Haiti May 2004-

Earthquake El Salvador Jan.2001-

Guatamala 2005, Hurrican Stan

Naturkatastrofer i Asia

Pakistan 2005 Earthquake-

The Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

Leyte, Phillines March 2006 Utradit, Northern Thailand, May 2006

vMa

Bam Earthquake, Iran 2003

Natural Disaster Mitigation Contribution from Norway

• Risk Identification and Assessment– Landslides, flooding, earthquakes and tsunami

• Risk Reduction– Preventive measures, early warning, physical measures,

building regulations, awarness

• Training and Capacity Building/Development– Institutional co-operation

Naturskade Eksempler på “norske” prosjekter

VenezuelaNicaraguaEl Salvador

Central America Ethiopia

Norway / Sweden

India

Bhutan

Malaysia

Sri Lanka

Hong KongCaucasus Nepal

Canada

Madagascar

TajikstanKazakhstan

UK

CaribbeanThailand

Pakistan

Indonesia

Bhutan, et fjell land med mange utfordringer

Mange hovedveier blir vanskelig fremkommelig på grunn av skred i monsoon perioden

Vi undersøker om bruk av veitunneler erløsningen på skredproblemene

Alt arbeid i Bhutan gjøres i tett samarbeidmed de lokale ingeniørene/geologene

Lokalisering av nye skoler/sykehus i områdersom ikke kan rammes av flom eller skred vil være en del av prosjekt Fase 3

The Nicaragua Project

• Identification of the most landslide prone areas in 4 volcano slopes

• Pilot project on early warning based on rainfall measurements

• Capacity building within INETER

Threshold values for rainfall that triggers landslides

Challenges:

• Deforestation• Urbanization • More extreme weather

4-Year Central America Training Program2004 – 2008

“Management of Risks Caused by Landslides”

• Regional initiative, 6 countries

• 25 middle managers trained one week annually for 4 years.

• Focus on practical aspects in landslide mitigation, best practice for hazard/risk mapping

• Implementing landslide mitigation demonstration projects in 3 countries

• Yearly Dissemination Seminar, 50-100 participants

Global Landslide Hazard

Tsunami RiskMitigation Strategy

for ThailandSeminar in Phuket

February 2006

Elements in the project• Determine causes and consequences of Dec. 2004 event

• Establish future earthquake and tsunami-generating scenarios and their return periods (hazard)

• Model future tsunamis and their inundation levels

• Assess future risk to human life and acceptance criteria

• Recommend risk mitigation measures

• Ensure local involvement and dissemination of results

Conclusions from risk assessment

• Within next 50-100 years maximum credible earthquake affecting Thailand is M 8.5 giving inundation level +2.5 to +3.0 at high tide.

Such tsunamis will give small consequences in ThailandNo immediate mitigation measures strictly necessary, but increased public awareness is desirable

Conclusions from risk evaluation• In the Long term (100 – 400 years) the probability of occurrence of

a major tsunami will increase gradually with time.• If no risk mitigation measures are taken, the societal risk due to a

major tsunami will be unacceptably high after about 50 – 100 years, approaching catastrophic levels in 200 – 400 years.

Mitigation measures are needed to reduce long term risks

The Oil and Gas Industry

Failure scenarios Ormen Lange

Oil and gas related geohazard projects 1995-2005

Noen konklusjoner

1. Norge hevder seg bra internasjonalt innenfor gehohazard feltet.

2. Erfaringene hjemme er en god plattform

3. Vi har et godt grep både på kunnskapsutvikling og på praktiskanvendelse.

4. Etableringen av International Centre for Geohazards(ICG), en vesentlig inspirasjonskilde.

5. Vi klarer å samabeide (NGU, NTNU, NORSAR, UiO og NGI).

6. Tilfanget av nye internasjonale oppgaver er sterkt økende