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Army Reserve Mission Resilience and
Sustainability (ARMRS) Training
November 7, 2017
The Economics of Recycling and the Circular Economy
Agenda
• Sustainability
• Walton Sustainability Solutions Initiatives
• Seidman Research Institute
• Recycling
• Circular Economy
• Economic Impact
Sustainability Meeting the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs
Why it matters
• Current world population 7.5 Billion
• Estimated to reach 10 Billion by 2060
• UN Estimates by 2050
• 30 percent more water
• 40 percent more energy
• 50 percent more food
Rob and Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Initiatives
SOLVE global challenges
ENGAGE and inform the public EDUCATE future leaders
Solutions
Programs
Phoenix Metro Area
Resource Innovation
Campus
Phoenix
Guatemala
Nigeria
Netherlands
India
RISN HQ “Living Building”
RISN Incubator, Entrepreneurship
Solutions Delivery
Public-Private Collaboration
Community Outreach & Education
RISN HUB 80 acres at 27th Ave. &
Lower Buckeye
11/14/2017 7
11/14/2017 8
Resource Innovation Campus
Source EPA 9
MSW – Waste Generation
Source EPA 10
MSW – Recycling Rates
Source Waste Management 11
The Evolving Ton
• Per capita waste generation is down 8% since
2000, affecting recycling, landfilling and waste-to-
energy.
• Less paper, more plastic and no growth in metal.
• More discarded electronics
• More non-recyclable “Evil Hybrid” single use items.
Source EPA 12
What makes something recyclable?
• Source separation
• Convenient
• Minimal Contamination
• Collection
• Single Stream
• Cost Effective
• Markets
• International vs. Domestic
• China is by far the largest importer of recyclable
scrap in the world.
• China’s purpose for this campaign is an attempt to
clean up the type of waste entering their country.
• Increased focus on the quality of waste paper and
plastics.
13
China – National Sword
14
The Circular Economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI
15
Linear v. Circular Economy
http://storyofstuff.org/movies/story-of-stuff/
16
Linear v. Circular Economy
17
Industrial Platform
WHY A CIRCULAR ECONOMY
• Growing population
• Earth’s resources are finite
• Currently follow a linear model
• Cannot currently recycle, compost, or recover all our waste
• Ellen McArthur Foundation recommends a circular economy
• Require a radical rethinking of business models
BUT……
CAN OR WILL IT REALLY HAPPEN?
PLASTIC CARRIER BAGS
• 2014: Bisbee City Council ban local businesses using plastic bags
Supported by local businesses
Proven waste reduction strategy
• 2016: AZ Legislature disallows municipalities from instituting bans
• 2017: Attorney General declares Bisbee ban violates state law
Ban now becomes voluntary
1) What is the current impact of recycling, reuse and repair activities on the local economy?
2) What potential circular economy opportunities exist locally?
ADVANCING THE DISCUSSION
Geography: Maricopa County
Focus: Recycling, reuse, and repair & maintenance
Study Year: 2014
CURRENT IMPACT RECYCLING/REUSE/REPAIR
KEY STAKEHOLDERS
• Firms that collect the material
• Firms that process the material
• Firms that reuse, repair, or recycle the material
METHOD
MAXIMUM GROSS IMPACT ESTIMATE, 2014
$1.9 Billion 35,454 $1.2 Billion $158.5 Million
Gross State Product
Jobs Labor Income Tax Revenues
“MAXIMUM” AS IMPOSSIBLE TO DIFFERENTIATE WITHIN NAICS
MAXIMUM GROSS IMPACT ESTIMATE, 2014
GSP (Millions $)
JOBS LABOR INCOME
(Millions $)
Recycling $873.7 9,610 $560.2
Repair & Maintenance
$221.8 2,918 $152.9
Reuse $805.5 22,926 $528.4
CONTEXTUALIZING THE IMPACT
0.9% 2% 1.4% 2.6%
Gross State Product
Salaried Jobs
Labor Income State & Local Tax Revenues
CONTEXTUALIZING THE IMPACT
Large streams from little fountains flow,
Tall oaks from little acorns grow. David Everett
The Columbian Orator (1797)
WASTE CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES
• Characterizes and quantifies the different types of material within a waste stream
• Often single family residential solid municipal waste
• Can additionally include:
• Multi-family residential waste
• Industrial and commercial waste
• Self-hauled waste
• Used to reduce waste, set up recycling/diversion programs, and conserve money and resources
WASTE CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES
WHAT TYPES OF MATERIAL FEATURE?
PHOENIX SINGLE FAMILY WASTE STUDY (Tons)
2014 RECYCLED WASTE TOTAL
Paper 55,802 49,132 104,934
Plastic 16,379 38,127 54,506
Glass 9,820 7,250 17,070
Metals 4,695 10,352 15,047
Organics 4,027 187,991 192,018
Other 11,159 97,696 108,855
WASTE CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES
33%
67%
NYC 2013
Austin 2014
Phoenix 2014
21%
79%
33%
67%
Recycled Waste
POST-CONSUMER PLASTICS
• MRFs only separate PET & HDPE
• Demand correlated with crude oil price
• Manufacturers switch between virgin (prime) and recycled resins
• One local pre-consumer plastic processor handles 12,000 tons a year
• Phoenix collects sufficient supply for a PET flake or pellet processor
POST-CONSUMER GLASS
• One of the heaviest materials in municipal waste stream
• Phoenix already has a glass processor, capable of handling all of city’s waste
• Quality of glass supply is critical
• Demand for recycled glass exceeds current supply in U.S.
• Sometimes cheaper for waste mgmt. firms to landfill glass
POST-CONSUMER METALS
• Phoenix’s scrap metal mainly sourced from air conditioners, appliances, cars and other metallic objects that have ended their useful lives
• City has several brokers and dealers, and 2 shredders
• Additionally recoverable metals in waste stream could be handled locally
• But local availability of metals > local manufacturing demand
POST-CONSUMER PAPER
• Includes old corrugated boxes or containers, newspapers, magazines, and other printed papers
• Pulping is water-intensive
• Phoenix has insufficient OCC supply for a recycled corrugated box plant
• Consider a multi-state approach
SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES
LANDFILL
PROCESSORS & SHREDDERS
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPPORTUNITIES
Geography:
Maricopa County
Focus:
• New PET post-consumer flake/pellet firm
• Expansion of existing cullet operation
• Expansion of existing metal shredder
Study Time Horizon:
2017-2022
MARICOPA COUNTY GROSS IMPACT, 2017-2022
$123 Million 118-207 $61.3 Million
Cumulative Gross State
Product
Jobs per year Cumulative Labor Income
GROSS ECONOMIC IMPACT ESTIMATE, 2017-22
CAPEX (Millions $)
GSP (Millions $)
JOBS
PET $10-12 $112 110-188 per year (incl. 50 direct)
Glass Cullet $1.5 $11 8-19 per year (incl. 5 direct)
Metal Shredder
$0 $0 0
SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES
LANDFILL
PROCESSORS & SHREDDERS
CITY MUST SIMULTANEOUSLY SEEK AND ENCOURAGE LOCAL MARKETS FOR THE FLAKE, CULLET & SHREDDED METAL
Army Reserve Mission Resilience and
Sustainability (ARMRS) Training
November 7, 2017
Thank you.
Questions?
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