APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo...
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- APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS
Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant
Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015
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- ResultsToolsOverviewImpacts 2
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- OVERVIEW 3
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- 4 15 NEW MODELS 375 Residential Non-Residential
Multi-Sector
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- APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes
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- 45 STANDARDS 1,507 aMW (2010-2034) 6
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- IMPACTS 7
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- 2008 External Power Supplies Commercial Unit Heaters 2009 Metal
Halide Lamp Fixtures Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2010 Commercial
Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Package AC and HP including
Single Package Vertical Units 2011 2012 Dehumidifiers Incandescent
Reflector Lamps General Service Fluorescent Lamps Kitchen Ranges
& Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines
General Service Incandescent Lamps Commercial Refrigeration
Equipment WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?
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- 9 2015 Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Water Heaters Small
Electric Motors 2016 Electric Motors Distribution Transformers
External Power Supplies Microwave Ovens 2017 Walk-in Coolers &
Freezers Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Metal Halide Lamp
Fixtures 2018 Ice Makers 2013 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 2014
Refrigerators & Freezers Room AC 2019 Furnace Fans
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- STANDARDS & PROGRAMS INTERACT 10 DOE Standards Emerging
Tech Support Market Pull and Demand Creation
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- DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 11 New Standard Less Efficient
More Efficient Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard
Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up
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- INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 12 New Standard Less
Efficient More Efficient Before New Standard Less Efficient More
Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient
Roll-Up
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- PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS 13 $1,600 $800
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- STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS 14 Wattage Range
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- STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND % Improvement Over 2014 Market Baseline
Standard-size vented clothes dryers 3% Current Standards 32%
Maximum feasible efficiency 15
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- TOOLS 16
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- MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized
TemplatesFamiliarity 17
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- MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Centralized ModelsCohesion
18
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- MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES GuidesUsability 19
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- SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 20 Shipments Change in Unit Energy
Consumption Incremental Savings
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- SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 21 Annual kWh Per Unit Model
Pre-Case Shipment UEC Model Post-Case Shipment UEC
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- SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 22 Shipments Change in Unit Energy
Consumption Incremental Savings
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- FLOW 23 STOCK
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- 24 INSTALLED STOCK IN 2006INSTALLED STOCK IN 2007INSTALLED
STOCK IN 2008INSTALLED STOCK IN 2009INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010
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- STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW 25 Shipments Stock Lifetime
Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space
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- Shipments Incremental Savings SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 26
Change in Unit Energy Consumption
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- 27 Weighted Average UECs Usage Statistics Efficiency
Distributions Product Class Distributions
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- ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK 28
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- INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER
29
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- NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30
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- INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS 31
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- INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32
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- RESULTS 33
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- SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 34 End
UseResidentialNon-Residential Analysis CycleRound 1Round 2Round
1Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home
Appliances Motors Transformers Miscellaneous
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
RESIDENTIAL Other Heat Pumps Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters
8% 5% 28% 54% 2015
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Electric Furnace Fans Refrigerators
Water Heaters 12% 5% 14% 24% 45% 2020
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters Electric
Furnace Fans 5% 13% 18% 51% 2034
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- 85% Distribution Transformers 0% 2% 6% 7% Regional Incremental
Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Electric
Motors Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Commercial Washer 2015
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Ref. Equipments Walk-In Coolers
& Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 5% 2% 15%
20% 58% 2020
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar
NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Washer Walk-In Coolers &
Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 1% 3% 20% 75%
2034
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL
Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers 35% 65% 2015
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL
Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 36%
48% 16% 2020
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- Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL
Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 17%
31% 52% 2034
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- CONTACT Carrie Cobb clcobb@bpa.gov 503.230.4985 Ben Barrington
bbarrington@cadeogroup.com 781.354.7070 Angie Lee
Angie.Lee@navigant.com 415.356.7145 44