“Big Picture” Economic Development Study of Falls...

“Big Picture” Economic Development Study of Falls

Church

Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy

George Mason University

May 2005

Purpose and Objectives

Examine major trends at the national, regional, and local levels in terms of the implications and relevance of the development trends for the future of the City of Falls Church

Presentation Outline

1. U.S. Trends2. Washington Metro Trends3. Counter Trends4. Falls Church comparisons to U.S., Washington

Region, Arlington and Fairfax Counties5. Falls Church comparisons to its immediate

environs – adjacent areas in Arlington and Fairfax6. Development Trends and How they could impact

Falls Church

1 - U.S. Trends

The US Economy: GDP

0

10

20

30

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

36.8% 39.1% 38.0% 33.3% 29.7% 24.9%

Trillions of 2000 $

35.1%

05 15

Impending Crisis: Skilled Labor ShortageResulting from Workforce Age Wave

90100110120130140150160170

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010

Labor Force

Jobs

7.6 M More People than Jobs

Millions

10.0 M More Jobs than People

U.S. Trends Summary• GDP grows more slowly as population and

labor force growth moderate• Aging of work force generates labor

shortages over the next decade• Immigration and increased labor force

participation helped to meet demand in the past; diminished sources for the future

• Changing structure of the economy – favors services jobs with professional services jobs dominating

2 – Washington Metro Trends

Metro Comparisons Job Change Last Five Years

15 Largest Metro Areas

-109-103

-88-72

-2232363642

8688

103144150

191287

-150 -50 50 150 250

Chicago

Detroit

SF-Oakland

Boston

Seattle

Dallas

Atlanta

Minneapolis

Philadelphia

Houston

New York

Los Angeles

Phoenix

Miami

ThousandsWASHINGTON

Annual Data

No. Virginia

Structure of the Greater Washington Economy

LocalBusiness

42%

Non-LocalBusiness10%

Federal 34.5% Procurement

15.0%

Assn 2.5%Hosp. 2.5%

Int’l 5%

Other 3.5%

Other Federal19.4 %

Gross Regional ProductWashington MSA

1970 - 2030

83.3118.9

191.5268.8

479.2

597.4

370

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Billions of 2005 $

2005 = $311.3

2015 =$425.2

70-00 = +222.7% or 3.98%/Yr

00-30 = +115.6% or 2.70 %/yr

Jobs: DC and Suburbs1950 - 2002

000s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002002

82% 24%

Suburbs

DC

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Share of Washington Area Jobs1970-2005

No. Virginia

Sub MD

DC

% o

f Reg

iona

l Job

s

42%

21%

30%

28%

45%

34%

Year

Current and Projected Housing Demand –Nearby Jurisdictions

County -Year

Total Jobs HH-Job Equivalent

Housing Deficit

Arlington –Alexandria

2005 312,100 239,200 -45,6002015 358,600 251,900 -66,700

Fairfax Co2005 847,900 642,000 -128,7002015 1,118,500 761,200 -223,300

Workers Commuting into Beltway and Central Jurisdictions from Outer Counties:

1970-2000

64,200

172,000

300,000

440,700

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

PMSA Jobs and Populationby Decade

0100200300400500600700800900

50s

60s

70s

80s

90s

00s

10s

000s

JOBS

POP

Metro Trends Summary

• Area job trends tops nation• National capital functions and federal

spending dominate area economy• Area economic growth shift to Northern VA• Area economic growth moderates in out

years as population and job growth slow• Close-in housing shortages drive housing

price increases and commuting

3 – Counter Trends

• Business Cycles• 4 & 8-year Election Cycle + 1• Generational Cycle

US Economic Outlook:2005 – 2015

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4%Trillions

Of 2005$

4 - How does Falls Church compare to trends and

characteristics of the U.S., Washington metro, and its neighboring jurisdictions?

Falls Church Less Diverse Racially…

Percent White in 2000

75.1

60.169.9 68.9

85.0

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

And Falls Church has not experienced as much of foreign born growth as Arl/Ffx…

Percent Foreign Born in 2000

11.116.9

24.5 27.816.1

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Falls Church Has Fewer Children except for Arlington…

Percent Population 0-19 in 2000

28.5 27.8 27.418.2

24.8

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Falls Church 65+ More like U.S. Than Region and Neighbors…

Percent Population 65+ in 2000

12.4 9.1 7.9 9.4 12.2

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Falls Church more like Arlington in having more smaller households and fewer large

households

58.4 57.3 54.0

72.566.0

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

1-25+

%

Falls Church residents are better educated

Percent of Pop 25+ with a Bachelor’s andgraduate degree in 2000

8.918.8

24.4 30.6 33.8

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Grad.

Falls Church and Arlington lead in Labor Force participation by women…

Percent Women in LF in 2000

57.565.6 66.1 69.3 68.2

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Falls Church Leads all in percent who work at home and in self-employed…

3.2 3.7 4.23.4

5.06.1

5.4 5.54.5

7.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Solid bars = work at home; hatched = self-employed

And Falls Church Leads all in percent employed in management, professional

occupations…Percent in Mgmt. & Prof. Occ. in 2000

33.6

48.555.2 60.2 65.6

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

%

Falls Church leads in per capita income…Per capita Income in 1999

21.630.4

36.9 37.7 41.1

0102030405060708090

100

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

$ 000s

Falls Church housing values are higher

Median housing value in 1999

119.6

179.8

233.3262.4 277.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

U.S. Region Fairfax Arlington FallsChurch

$ 000s

% of Houses (Existing) Sold by Price Range in 2004Washington MSA and Falls Church

3.4

42.9

53.6

17.0

64.5

18.5

0

25

50

75

< $200K $200K - $500K > $500K

F ChMSA

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Percent All Units

Relative to the U.S., MSA, Fairfax, and Arlington – Falls Church …

• Is less diverse• Has fewer children (except for Arlington)• Is more like the US than the region in

retirement age population• Has smaller HH except for Arlington• Has higher education levels

Relative to the U.S., MSA, Fairfax, and Arlington – Falls Church …

• Has more 2-worker households• Has more workers working at home• Has more workers in management and

professional occupations• Has higher incomes• And higher housing values

5 - How does Falls Church compare to trends and

characteristics of its immediate environs – adjacent areas in

Arlington and Fairfax

Falls Church Immediate Environs – Tract Groups

F Ch 53

12 4

TYSON’SCORNER

R-B CORRIDOR

Falls Church and Its Environs

Measure Falls Church

Environs Diff

% White 85.0 65.1 + 19.9% Foreign Born 16.1 35.8 - 19.7% Pop < 20 yrs 24.8 23.4 + 1.4

% Pop 65+ yrs 12.2 10.1 - 2.1% 1 or 2-pers HH 66.0 61.8 + 4.2% HH with 5+ pers 6.6 11.9 - 5.4

Falls Church and Its Environs

Measure Falls Church

Environs Diff

% College Degree 63.7 48.3 + 15.4% LF Participation of Women

68.2 63.6 + 4.6

% Work @ Home 5.0 3.5 + 1.5

% Self-Employed 7.2 5.6 + 1.6% in Prof/Mgmt Jobs 65.6 50.7 + 14.9Per capita Income $45,800 $35,400 +$10,400

6 – Development Trends and How they could impact

Falls Church

Falls Church’s 2 Economies

• Internal Demand– Residents– Businesses– Government and Non-profits

• External Demand from Surrounding Markets– Federal Government/Contractors– Tyson’s Corner– Northern Virginia

Internal Market Demand(in millions of 2005$)

Category Current New* Total Sq Ft(000s)

Groceries $39.1 $12.9 $52.0 115.6

Retail 24.6 8.1 32.7 72.7

Health Care 26.8 8.8 35.6 142.4

Personal Care 7.7 2.6 10.3 22.9

Ent. & Restaurant 45.0 14.9 59.9 133.1

TOTALS $143.2 $47.3 $190.5 486.6

* + 1000 Households

External Market Demand

• Surrounding Households Disposable Income* .…….– Retail & Food Services…….– Personal Services &

Health Care ……………......– Entertainment ……………...

$1.602 billion$650 million

$259 million$163 million

* Excludes housing and other non-local spending

Projected Job Growth in Northern Virginia = 432,600

Office Worker Growth 210,460Office Space Demand 52.6 msf

Retail Worker Growth 38,500Retail Space Demand 17.3 msf

Hotel/Restaurant Worker Growth 46,720Restaurant Space Demand 14.7 msfHotel Space Demand 15,000 rm

msf = millions of square feet, rm = rooms

Key Trends Driving Falls Church’s Development

• Northern Virginia’s rapid growth• Growth of high quality jobs• Aging of population and growth of

“early” and “empty” nesters• Shortage of housing and increasing

housing prices

Key Trends Driving Falls Church’s Development

• Increased commuting and congestion costs making close-in areas even more in demand

• Changing patterns of density and mix of uses to meet the needs and preferences of an increasingly diverse and urban population

Public Policy Actions That Could Effect Trends

• Homeland Security• BRAC – DOD Agency Relocation

from Leased Office Space• Metro Extension to Dulles and

Loudoun County

Public Policy Actions That Could Effect Trends

• I-66 Widening • Doubling of Tyson’s Expansion• Redevelopment/Intensification of

East Falls Church Metro• City of Falls Church Land Use and

Economic Development Policies

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

TYSON’SCORNER

ROSSLYN-BALLSTONCORRIDOR

Rest of Northern Virginia

FALLSCHURCH

Falls Church is at a critical juncture in its development as a city and community with significant opportunities to shape its future.…