Advancing maps of ignorance on the distribution of biodiversity

Advancing maps of ignorance on the distribution of biodiversity

Visualising the future of our planet – Can we do better than heat maps?

Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), Spain

http://jhortal.com/; jhortal@mncn.csic.es / jqhortal@gmail.com

Joaquín Hortal

Microsoft Research Ltd.Cambridge, 16-17/2012

Summary

Biodiversity information

Quality (and quantity) of data: Wallacean

Shortfall

Mapping unknown species distributions

Mapping ignorance

Imagine a magnificent and omniscient GIS for all the Earth’s living species, with the capacity to display any level of the Linnaean hierarchy on any spatial scale, for any season of the year.

biodiversity and biogeography

Colwell & Coddington Phil Trans Roy Soc B 1994

digitize available distributional information: Natural History collections

▪ Institutional (Museums, Herbaria)▪ Private collections

gathering biodiversity information

digitize available distributional information: Natural History collections

▪ Institutional (Museum, Herbaria)▪ Private collections

Literature

gathering biodiversity information

digitize available distributional information: Natural History collections

▪ Institutional (Museums, Herbaria)▪ Private collections

Literature ad hoc surveys

gathering biodiversity information

integrate all information on the distribution of biodiversity

biodiversity databases

Map of Life

http://www.gbif.org/ ; http://www.mappinglife.org/ ; http://splink.cria.org.br/

Adequate distribution data is lacking for many of the known species and higher taxa (Lomolino 2004)

Whittaker et al. Div Distr 2005; Hortal et al. Conserv Biol 2007

Wallacean shortfall

Adequate distribution data is lacking for many of the known species and higher taxa (Lomolino 2004)

1,131 species1,084,971 records

960 records/species128 records/grid cell

Tenerife seed plants

Whittaker et al. Div Distr 2005; Hortal et al. Conserv Biol 2007

Wallacean shortfall

Tenerife seed plantsRecords Observed

Richness

Whittaker et al. Div Distr 2005; Hortal et al. Conserv Biol 2007

Wallacean shortfall

Adequate distribution data is lacking for many of the known species and higher taxa (Lomolino 2004)

taxonomic error

Lozier et al J Biogeogr 2009

taxonomic error

Lozier et al J Biogeogr 2009

taxonomic bias

Baselga et al Biodiv Conserv 2007

recorder’s home rangehotspots

spatial bias

Dennis & Thomas J Insect Conserv 2000

accessibility: ‘roadside bias’

spatial bias

Kadmon et al Ecol Appl 2003; Hurlbert & Jetz PNAS 2007

butterflies scarab dung beetles

bias differs between groups

Hortal et al Biod Conserv 2001; Hortal et al Ecography 2004

spatial bias

Onthophagus fracticornis

Lobo et al. Div Distr 2007

temporal bias

Historical survey process has been incomplete and biased:

Taxonomic bias Temporal bias Spatial bias

quality of distributional data

Pineda & Lobo J Anim Ecol 2009

Historical survey process has been incomplete and biased:

Taxonomic bias Temporal bias Spatial bias

quality of distributional data

Pineda & Lobo J Anim Ecol 2009

Current biodiversity picture depends on the survey process

Historical survey process has been incomplete and biased:

Taxonomic bias Temporal bias Spatial bias

quality of distributional data

Pineda & Lobo J Anim Ecol 2009

Current biodiversity picture depends on the survey process

Current knowledge on species distribution patterns may depend on survey unevenness rather than on their actual distributions

fill in the gapsexpert opinion

predictive models

mapping species distributions

Carabus granulatus Copris hispanus

Hortal J Biogeogr 2008; Penev et al The genus Carabus in Europe 2007; Chefaoui et al Biol Conserv 2005

neither the species are present everywhere within their range maps, nor all their known occurrences are within these range maps

inconsistencies with atlas data

Hurlbert & White Ecol Lett 2005

these mismatches are scale dependent

inconsistencies with atlas data

Hurlbert & Jetz PNAS 2007

prob

abili

ty o

f pre

senc

eenvironmental gradient

land classes

limited knowledge on the predictors

the actual responses of the species to the environment are unknown

data incompleteness

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1900 1935 1970 1998

Num

ber o

f spe

cies

Niche coverage100%

90%

75%50%

1900 1935 1970 19980

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1900 1935 1970 19980

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Tota

l

All species 23 First recorded species

the descriptions of the environmental responses of most species are incomplete and biased

Hortal et al Oikos 2008

Chefaoui et al Anim Biodiv Conserv 2011

expert-drawnobserved plots

predictive modelshybrid approach

fine

coarse

uncertainty in predictions

different techniques predict different distribution patterns

whorl snailVertigo mouninsiana

southern damselflyCoenagrion mercuriale

GLM GAM NNET

Araújo & Rahbek Science 2006; Lawler et al Global Change Biol 2006

uncertainty in future projections

other determinants of the distribution

historical effects

e.g., Lobo et al. Div Distr 2006Chefaoui & Lobo J Wildl Man 20º7

Spanish moon mothGraellsia isabelae

ensemble forecasting

Araújo & New Tree 2006

dealing with uncertainty?

maps of ignorance

Boggs Proc Am Phil Soc 1949

a region is an “area of ignorance” if the total library resources of the outside world do not cover it (Boggs 1949)

maps of ignorance

Boggs Proc Am Phil Soc 1949

a region is an “area of ignorance” if the total library resources of the outside world do not cover it (Boggs 1949)

accuracy of knowledge

Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

Kp = f ( [K0·C] , Lt , Ls )

Kp = accuracy of the knowledge about a given taxon or community at area pK0 = knowledge about such taxon or community at each area in the moment of the surveyC = degree of completeness of the surveyLt = loss of knowledge across time

Ls = loss of knowledge across space

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

em

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Sobs

– Taxonomic accuracy– Detectability (crypsis, phenology)– Adequacy of sampling method and dates– Interactions– Size of focal unit– Habitat heterogeneity– Sampling effort and success

quality of initial knowledge

Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

Temporal decay of similarity:- Changes in taxonomy- Turnover of species (mobility, phenotypic traits)- Area of unit (small higher turnover)- Range shifts (climate change)- Local extinctions (land use changes, biological invasions)

temporal loss of knowledge

Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

Magersfontein battlefield, South Africa

Magersfontein battlefield, South Africa(from Moustakas et al Front Biogeogr 2010)

1899

2005

Distance decay of similarity:- Taxon specific- Biogeographical changes- Environmental gradients- Metacommunity structure- Habitat specificity (niche width)

spatial loss of knowledge

Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

Magersfontein battlefield, South Africa

(from Green et al Nature 2004)

•Species: metacommunity structure / habitat specificity (niche width) / changes in climatic scenopoetic conditions

1. develop tools to map ignorance- how to measure taxonomic uncertainty- how to assess uncertainty in observations- how to map the degree of reliability of species distribution models in each point of space- how to determine when distribution is being extrapolated- how…

2. attach maps of ignorance as metadata for any distributional map

suggestions are welcome!

looking forward

1. develop tools to map ignorance- how to measure taxonomic uncertainty- how to assess uncertainty in observations- how to map the degree of reliability of species distribution models in each point of space- how to determine when distribution is being extrapolated- how…

2. attach maps of ignorance as metadata for any distributional map

suggestions are welcome!

looking forward

gracias thank youMuseo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), Spain

http://jhortal.com/ ; jhortal@mncn.csic.es , jqhortal@gmail.com

Joaquín Hortal

Richard J. Ladle

Geiziane Tessarolo

Jorge M. Lobo

Duccio Rocchini

and many others...