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7/27/2019 A Swedish Energy Strategy for Global
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/a-swedish-energy-strategy-for-global 1/17
THE GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVE
Jan Murray
Deputy Secretary General,
World Energy Council
Conference on: A Swedish EnergyStrategy for Global Competitiveness
Stockholm, 3 March 2005
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs
4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs
4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
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Oil prices and Chinese Imports
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Middle East Oil Exports by destination: 2002
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Asia Europe USA Africa
Source: BP Yearbook
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs
4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
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US OIL PRODUCTION 1900-2000
0
1
2
3
4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
B I L
L I O N S B A R R E L
S P E R
Y E A R
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NORTH AMERICA (US/CANADA/MEXICO) NATURAL GASAnnual productions vs. discoveries shifted by 20 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
raw production
(wet gas)
total dryproduction
dry production less
unconvent.
mean discoveries20-year shifted
Jean Laherrère
February 2003
Tcf/year
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
7/27/2019 A Swedish Energy Strategy for Global
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs
4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
7/27/2019 A Swedish Energy Strategy for Global
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
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WORLD ENERGY-RELATED SERVICES 1971-2000
0,0
500,0
1000,0
1500,0
2000,0
2500,0
3000,0
3500,0
10000 20000 30000 40000
StationaryUses
Mobility (oilonly)
ElectricityOutput
GDP PPP
Mtoe
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
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WORLD POPULATION - UN SCENARIOS
0
4
8
12
1950 2000 2050
B I L L I O N
P E O P L E
High
fertility variant
Mediumfertility variant
Low fertility variant
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Energy price drivers:
1. Rising demand
2. Capacity & resource constraints
3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives
5. Energy conservation6. Demographics
7. Economic growth
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WORLD 1850-2000
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
GDP PPP (after Maddison prior to 1950 and corrected for China since 1978)
M T O E
( O . R
e i c h f o r 1 8 5 0 - 1 9 7
0 , t h e n A I E
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WORLD OFFICIAL GROWTH RATES
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
First oil shock
Second twin
oil shockCounter
oil shock
Kuwait
invasion
China
coal
crisis
Price rise
to 25 $/b
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