A Structured Decision Support System For Flood Mitigation Raymond Laine 2011 ASFPM National...

A Structured Decision Support System For Flood Mitigation

Raymond Laine

2011 ASFPM National Conference

Welcome

• Australia’s recent floods

• The Australian floodplain risk management process

• Decision support system for flood management?

• FLODSS

• Case study / application

• Limitations

• Conclusion

La Niña & SOI values this year

Brisbane, QLD 2011 ($3.9b)

Wollongong, NSW 2011 ($1m)

Flooding in Australia

Victoria 2011 ($676m)

2011= $5.6 b +

Damages applied to US

"The best preliminary estimate of the direct cost to the federal budget of the summer's flood disaster is A$5.6bn”

Julia Gillard (Australian Prime Minister)

5,600,000,000 (Damage) / 21,874,000 (Australian Population)= $256 damage per person

$256 (Damage Per person) X 307,006,000 (US Population)= $78,593,000,000 damage

Since January 2011

The Australian FMP Process

Floodplain Management in Australia: Principles and Guidelines(SCRAM 2000)

The New South Wales FMP Process

Floodplain Risk Management

Plan

Floodplain Risk Management

Plan Implementation

Data Collection

Flood Study

Floodplain Risk Management

Study

Floodplain Risk Management Committee

Balanced plans deal with existing, future & continuing flood risk Take a long term viewpoint consider - future development Strategies & climate change Aim to achieve long term community goals

Proposed FMP Process

Flood Management Options

Property Management Options

Response Management Options

Why DSS in Flood Mitigation?

Floodplain risk management requires a robust understanding of flood risk and a comprehensive knowledge of flood management options

But

Quick staff changeover rates&

Retiring workforce

=

Loss of heuristic and organizational knowledge&

Limited understanding of flood risk and flood management measures∴

Continually relying on external experts

Decision Support System in Flood Mitigation

• Identify, examine and explore management options for floodplain management

• Transparent process

• Structured confirmation

• Centralised repository

• Education and training

• Flexibility to adapted to suit organizational and/ orstakeholder requirements

What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?

“An informed system whose primary purpose is to provide workers with information on which to base informed decisions” (Mallach 1994)

“DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in a semi-structured and unstructured situation by bringing together human Judgement and computerised information” (Turban 2001)

“A DSS is a system that can lend support to decision makers involved in solving problems of some complexity” (Srinivasan et al 2000)

“An interactive computer based system that utilises a model to identify and draw upon relevant data in order to aid decision making” (Lemass 2004)

What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?

“An informed system whose primary purpose is to provide workers with information on which to base informed decisions” (Mallach 1994)

“DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in a semi-structured and unstructured situation by bringing together human Judgement and computerised information” (Turban 2001)

“A DSS is a system that can lend support to decision makers involved in solving problems of some complexity” (Srinivasan et al 2000)

“An interactive computer based system that utilises a model to identify and draw upon relevant data in order to aid decision making” (Lemass 2004)

Previous Applications

•Flood hazard mapping (FLOOD DSS, HAZUS etc.)

•Flood response routing (GCC, River Thames etc.)

•Water Quality (WATERCAST etc.)

•Aquatic ecological models (CAEDYM etc.)

•Water Sensitive Urban Design (MUSIC etc.)

•Forest Dynamics (SORTIE etc.)

•Soil and water models (SWIM etc.)

•...etc.

Decision Support System Application

Flood Study Understand the Flood Behaviour & What Controls it (Flood and Hazard Maps)

Management Study Understand the Local Impacts of Flooding on People, Property & Infrastructure Identify the Options Available to Manage Risk Assess, Compare & Decide on Options Determine How these Can Be Implemented

Management Plan How to Implement & Fund Options

Robust Solutions need to Consider Long Term Catchment Conditions including the Environment, Development and Climate Change.

NEED to INVOLVE COMMUNITY CONSULTATION

Decision Support System Application

Flood Study Understand the Flood Behaviour & What Controls it (Flood and Hazard Maps)

Management Study Understand the Local Impacts of Flooding on People, Property & Infrastructure Identify the Options Available to Manage Risk Assess, Compare & Decide on Options Determine How these Can Be Implemented

Management Plan How to Implement & Fund Options

Robust solutions need to consider long term catchment conditions including the environment, development and Climate change.

NEED to INVOLVE COMMUNITY CONSULTATION

The system: FLODSS

Start

Selection of management measure

Property management measures

Response management measures

Flood management measures

Constraint weighting

Select input measures

Recommendation

Constraint weighting

Select input measures

Recommendation

Investigate measures

Detailed management measure review

Help

The system: FLODSS

Step 2: Management option selection

Step 2: Management option selection

Fact sheet example

Step 3: Constraint weighting

Step 4: Recommendation

Its application: Cooma case study

400 km south west of Sydney 800m. above sea level Population of 8000 Floods in 1956, 1961, 1969, 1991 and 2007

Inundation common Limited flood warning time Erosion and sedimentation problems in the catchment

Its application: Cooma case study

FLODSS: Step 1

FLODSS: Step 2

FLODSS: Step 3

FLODSS: Step 4

Cooma Results

Limitations

The DSS can’t:

• Determine the “BEST” option• Replace the need for decision makers• Prevent the actions of a poor decision maker• Provide detailed option applicability or placement

The system is based on case-based reasoning, as a result It has been hard to quantify some constraints (i.e. Social and Political)

Plans are underway to further investigate such constraints, to increase the certainty of the system results

Conclusion

• Identify, examine and explore management options for floodplain management

• Transparent process

• Structured confirmation

• Centralised repository

• Educate and train

• Flexibility to adapted to suit organizational and/ orstakeholder requirements

Questions?

Contact: Ray Laine

rtl103@uow.edu.au