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A Maintenance Program for a bus fleet
Lessons from a Potential CDM Project in India
Kaushik Deb, TERI
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Structure of the presentation
The policy contextCDM and transport: Synergies Key barriersThe Project Need for an effective maintenance Inspection Systems: CDM project Emission savings Cost estimates
Lessons
Urban transport in IndiaLarge urban population Over 1/3 in 2001
High vehicle density in urban areas 33% concentrated in cities with 10% population 82% are personal vehicles
Inadequate public transport Effective public transport in only 10 cities Rail in only 3 cities
No urban transport policyDiffused institutional arrangementsImplications for economic sustainability Cities are vertices of continued growth
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Trends in vehicle population
Rapid growth in vehicles...
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
'000 vehicles
Personal
IPT
Bus
… large share of old vehicles
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
% of vehicles < 5 yrs
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Vehicle Ownership
Per capita income (US $)
Cities Vehicles Per 1000 Persons
London (1990)
Paris (1990)
Tokyo (1990)
$22,000
$34,000
$37,000
356
383
266
Delhi (1998) $850200
Shanghai (2000) $4,00069
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
DISHA 2047Year 2019
5% GDP growth
Sundar & Deb (2000)
7% GDP growth
MoST (1999)
Urban travel demand projections
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
bpkm
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Vehicular Growth
2 Wheelers
4 Wheelers
Buses3 Wheeler
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1980 1985 1990 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Thousands
2 Wheelers 4 Wheelers Buses 3 Wheeler
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Policy response in IndiaLargely technology based response Vehicle emissions Fuel quality Mandating alternative fuels
Inadequate attention to demand management NMT discriminated against in resource Land use development haphazard, not in sync
with transport planning Public transport not encouraged, personal
vehicles have become more accessible
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Emission normsNew vehicles
1991: First mass emission norms (CO & HC)1995: Catalytic converters for cars in 4 metros1996: Further tightening of norms (CO, HC & NOx) 2000: Bharat Stage I (~EUROI)2001: Bharat Stage II in Delhi (~EURO II)Sustained progress!!!
In use vehicles1989: Idle emission regulation2004: Some tighteningPiece meal efforts
No Statutory Maintenance & Fuel Efficiency Requirements !!!
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Government’s Auto Fuel Policy
April 201011 major cities
April 200511major cities
April 20037 cities other than metros
Entire countryEntire countryAll other new vehicles
Entire country(preferably from April 2008)
Entire country2 & 3 wheelers
Bharat Stage IV
Bharat Stage III
April 2010
Bharat Stage II April 2005
Category
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Need for an effective system for in use vehicles
Norms very lax No consistent improvement
Limited coverage Only idle tests for CO (petrol) Free acceleration tests for smoke (diesel)
Limited regulatory ability Equipment not calibrated No auditing/ training
Weak maintenance system
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Synergizing Objectives
Global Significant potential for GHG mitigation in
transport in India
National Positive impacts on local air quality, health &
safety High priority for urban centres Revenue from carbon credits
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
GHG emissions from transport
Industry24%
Others13%
Transport24%
Power 39%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1971 1990 1995 2010 2020
Million tones
North America EuropePacific East AsiaSouth Asia Latin AmericaAfrica Middle EastChina
OECD & IEA 20011999
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Fuel consumption & GHG emissions in Urban India
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
HSD(thousandtonnes)
MS (thousandtonnes)
CNG (millioncubic metre)
2000 2025 (BAU)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CO2 eq emissions
2000 2025 (BAU)
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Air quality is a concernAir Quality Monitoring Stations Exceeding NAAQS
more than 5% of the time
0
5
10
15
20
25
SO2 NOX SPM
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Transport contributes 3-22% of PM emissions
UrbAir Mumbai (WB 1995)
Resuspension dust21%
Domestic refuse burning30%
Domestic wood18%
Transport31%
Delhi (CPCB 1994)
Domestic4%
Industry74%
Transport22%
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Financial performance of public transport operators in India
Costs per km
Revenue per km
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Rupees
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
BarriersBaselines data availability uncertain sectoral forecasts
Leakages Fuel efficiency Vs VOCs
Monitoring and verification costs dispersed and large number of mobile sources
Additionality Mandated use of alternative fuels Comprehensive I&C regime proposed
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Project descriptionExisting maintenance regime inadequate and primitive
Even minor improvements would have large benefits
GHG savings from Better maintenance Result: Improved energy efficiency. Hence
GHG savings, Local emissions benefits
Impact: Range estimate of GHG reduction 5% improvement in fuel efficiency in US (Das et al 2001) 5.5% improvement in Jakarta (Cornie) 12.6% improvement in fuel efficiency (USEPA IM240
Program) 10-20% improvement in fuel efficiency in India (Das et al)
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Project structure
Project proponent: Thane Municipal Transport Undertaking Statutory public bus company Owned by Thane Municipal Corporation
Mandate: Provide transport services to ThaneActivities Bus operation Depots and terminals Bus maintenance
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Bus fleet covered in the program
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
2005 2010 2015
Standard Bus (1991-1996) Standard Bus (1996-1999)Standard Bus (1999-2000) Standard Bus (2000-2002) Standard Bus (2002-2007) Standard Bus (>2007)
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Maintenance checklistVisual safety tests
Steering Chassis Fuel tank & piping Engine mountings Battery terminals etc Seatbelts Lighting Oil leakages Leaf springs…
Automated safety tests
Headlamp beam Brakes Sideslip
Emissions Volumetric
concentration for gasoline
Opacity for diesel
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Design issuesProject boundary
Government owned bus company. Reduces institutional complexity data requirements, thus project development costs
Operational lifetime Life of equipment = 15 years
Crediting period: 10 years Reduced uncertainty
Monitoring & verification Fuel consumption already monitored daily Hence, no expense on monitoring
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Emission savings: MethodologyGHG emissions
Vehicle kms
Baseline projections based on Existing travel trends Expected changes in emission factors, fuel efficiencies
Increasingly stringent norms Improved technology
Sustained improvements in efficiency:5%Reference years: 2005 & 2015
( _ ) EmissionsVehicle kms km
( )Vehicles Utilisation
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
GHG savings
Baseline
Reduction scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
'1000 tons
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Project costs
Net present value of project — US$ 0.13 million
Project cost US$ 0.54 million
Cost of CO2
~ US$ 8.5
Substantial local benefits
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Transport CDM projects: LessonsBaselines
Carry out pilot tests to estimate fuel efficiency gains
Leakages Captive fleet with fixed mobility Independent of VOCs, exogenously determined demand
Monitoring and verification costs Data already monitored independently Preexisting statutory auditing: CAG
Additionality Comprehensive I&C regime proposed in India But no maintenance guidelines, requirements
26 August 2004 Transport CDM Workshop
Structure of a CDM projectThe Executive Board
Baselines Additionality Leakages
Monitoring & verification
CER marketPrice of CERs
Total CERs Cost of project
Cost issues Equity/Debt Vs
revenue streams CER revenues only as
revenue streams!!!
Structure the project well!!!
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