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8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
1/20
A Long Term View on the
Doha Round and the WTO
Patrick A. Messerlin
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
2/20
2007 The German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
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in writing rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
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copies are also available. To request a copy, send an e-mail to ino@gmus.org.
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The GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the
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sarily represent the view o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by
e-mail to ino@gmus.org.
About GMF
The German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institution dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between the United States
and Europe.
GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders
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maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC,
GMF has six ofces in Europe: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, and Ankara.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on theDoha Round and the WO
Pck A. M1
Ic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1 A L Ppcv. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2 A W Rc B? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3 D N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 Fx-p WO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Rc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1 P Ecc, Scc P, Dc Gp Ec M Scc P (GEM).
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO
bc c Gv b
p cc D R. Mv,
pby y cc p
q qy y . I
c, pp
p bck c b
pp c pp
ppcv.
Sc 1 c p: pcp
c. Sc 2 c
v p (PA) pc, b cc pc
. Sc 3 c ky
W Oz (WO)
pc, .., bc b bz
( c) pcy
xcp c. Sc 4 x
WO pc,
c x-p.
Introduction
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States
My D R v y k , WO
bp ,
p-D p La Belle Epoque.
1.1La Belle Epoque?
b 1 k cc c
. M bv p . B,
c ,
k cc pcv
b pc. A b
v c v by c , c
v (y vy c) c
pcvy.
.
F, pcvy py
b v y, xc Gv
I Ky R. xpc
ky cy. z G
A GA/WO
bp c ( vp
c bp)
pbper se.2 cc ,
Ky R, b GAbp,
jy vp b. Wy, ,
D R vc z
WO bp, y 25
b, y c,
C y pcp
Uy R? pb cy v
c , , q
bp z. Sc 4 pp
c c c p
WO S Uk.
Sc, pcvy Gv I y
xp: , pv q,
xc- c
2 Iy, c cc[G 2007].
c vy . Exp pcvy Ky R
c. Ky R
pv pc by b
bz xc --
q b
p [B 1986]. Hv, xp
q : bz
cp ( ) pcy
xcp. I c, Ky R b
xcp ccc
xcp . M xcp k
vp c, c v
GA , Jp
, c qcky b
y c vy xp . A
, Ky y b
xcp xy D
R y v.
Fy, b 1 c v
c D R. O c, b
c ypc. I pc, v
c (65pc) pvy Gv. Hv,
v , pcvy
xpc D R by
pcvy pc. I
, D R c pb
qcy b b
c , c , b
( Sc 3).
1.2 Domestic constraints
Pv R , b y v
. B, R b?
( ), b cpcy
WO b k c.
I pc, D c y
c.
A Longer Term Perspective
1
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO
I pp
cc v c pp
. B, b
by pbc p p, c
cy b pp p [GM F 2006]. I -
bz p v b.
Hv, vb yc vc
cp v -
p 50 y. Mv, y
cpx y. I y b c
U.S., b b v
pp C P ccy
(O) Lb Sc Dcc P
Ep (p, ,
v) k p. Fy, b pp
b k b. B , b by
y vc.
By c, c c c xp
ck p WO . Lp
q cpcy v , b
b p v ,
cpcy q b jy v py v c. b
2 jy py
c p c,
cc
c py GA/WO
pc. Gv j
b p , v y
cvc b. M p
c c ( x
y U.S. P; U.S. S
v-p ; c
cy v bc b EpC (EC) b EU
y, c.) py pb.
Table 1: A Productivity Indicator of the Rounds
Dates Length
()
Tariff
cuts2Round Productivity Number of Members
A G77
1 2 3 4 5 6
Gv-I 1947 8 26.0 39.0 19 7
Acy 1949 8 3.0 4.5 20 8
qy 1950-51 8 4.0 6.0 33 13
Gv-II 1955-56 16 3.0 2.3 35 14
D 1960-61 10 4.0 4.8 40 19
Ky 1963-67 42 37.0 10.6 74 44
ky 1974-79 74 33.0 5.4 84 51Uy 1986-94 91 38.0 5.0 125 88
D 2001-071 74 50.0 8.13 146 981 A Dcb 2007.2 Av c b .3 B S25 ( c) S10 (vp c) x.Sc: M M 2007. M 2007.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States
Table 2: The Erosion of the Margins of Majority, 1950s2007
Highest peak Lowest level Average margins1
year margin1 year margin1 before 90 after 90
U.S.
P (EV) 1984 97.6 2000 50.5 78.2 58.1
P (Pp) 1972 61.8 2000 49.7 55.3 51.9
S 1965 68.0 2007 50.0 57.3 53.6
H 1965 67.8 2001 50.9 59.2 54.3
Fc
P (1-) 1969 65.7 1974 43.0 56.5 50.0
P (2-) 2002 82.2 1974 50.8 54.0 67.4P (/)2 1965 44.7 2002 19.9 36.8 20.4
Gy
B () 1957 61.2 2002 50.0 54.7 52.8
V (/)2 1983 48.8 2005 34.5 44.9 39.8
UK
P () 1997 71.7 1974 50.3 55.7 65.6
V (/)2 1955 49.7 2005 35.2 44.4 40.21 W v, pc v c.2 W v, pc v xp.Sc: M 2007.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO
Wk v v PA, pcy y py
pc p (c
p, .. EC ky, U.S.
A).
2.1 Comparing apples and oranges
y v PA k c
c b j
WO 1960 211
2006. Sc p c xy
c , y vy p
y PA, b
b. I , c
PA b .
Hv,
v c WO c
pp. F,
y - PA c
-Ep
cpc y Ep b
S Mk. Ay by
EC ccy c by
Ep c k EC c EC Mb S
b cc, Ep F
Ac (EFA) c, ky,
Bk c. F vy PA by
EC, PA by
Ep c.
Sc, c b PA p
WO c, p, c WO
bp. D by
c b PA 2006
b 50.
L b , WO c
b b p
. A PA c 1995
b. By c, c
1960 y R y R vc.
qv x b, 15. A b
c PA b
21 y 1960 cp
b 50 y. O c, y c
c per se, b
p b WO
c, pc c
pc.
2.2 Trade diversion and preference erosion
F c, b c
c-b v jy c
c b y c. B
c y 10 pc k
p cc b 1983 2003,
cp 65 pc bz,
25 pc WO-b bz
[W Bk 2005].
Sc p pc p
p-1990 b, c y vv
c c p
(-v , MFN, ). H pc ( c
b MFN p )
bc c c by
c pc c c
c, cy
pc .
MFN (p)
b y b.
c b (cp )
c pc p
p, pc b
by pc , c c
k b cp.
Sc 1980, y c v
MFN , c k
v ( , cy,
A World Race to Bilaterals?
2
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States
b). Wy, , c cc b? I y py c
c c c 1980 v
. y cv pp, b,
( WO , y b c b
cp c
p). y v c
v pc. M py, vc
v y pc,
b cv
cv p-
1990 b : pc.
S , b c 1995
vv c ( pc cy
) c v b
c cvy PA b
[Fb 2003, B 2007], b by
q M
b U.S. EC WO Cc M, y
b vc b k
bz j b.
Hv, c EC pp [2006]
b 24 c (
by Cc
pck) y p p. I
c c c, b 3
p v pc
b c,
pcy EC, , x, C. Av (pp b)
p
c . k
p y pc
vy , v -cpv y
pcc - b ( c
Table 3: Selected Indicators for the Trading Partners to be Involved in Bilaterals
Under Negotiations or Under Consideration by Seven Selected WTO members
Numberof
partners
Market size Average
industrial tariffb
Regulatory rankingc
c
USD
PPP
USD
c
b
cc
b
-
ppy
pc-
vpp b
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sp 12 90.6 81.2 5.7 9.0 40.0 68.9 43.5 42.3 41.0
C 9 81.6 77.7 6.4 10.3 43.2 77.8 49.4 45.5 45.1
K 11 49.1 57.4 7.3 13.3 43.3 85.3 57.6 39.8 40.4
Jp 18 13.4 16.4 7.5 20.0 53.5 58.3 54.8 60.6 56.6
USA 14 14.9 16.5 8.8 21.3 54.1 69.7 52.2 64.7 44.2
C 12 10.4 17.0 10.1 25.5 83.1 96.4 83.5 76.1 47.2
EC 24 23.4 44.2 10.3 17.8 71.1 125.6 91.2 61.8 64.8 GDP ( USD, 2004) GDP.b WO P.c D B 2007. C EC.
Sc: M 2007b.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO
b, cc), vc ( b) v
( ppy pc v).
Sc b j pb.
pc c, pcy c
D R. Wy
p b p pc k
cy xp kp c
xp ? Sc,
c b v bc ( b
bc pc c) y qcky b c
p c
( v c). I , y
c c pc
p j ( c
pc ). b
y c pp p
b [B 1995] c c
c c.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States10
Cy pp Ky R, D R bz
xcp bc S
Uk ( cy p, Sc 4)
q c b.
3.1 The negotiations in manufacturing (NAMA)
2005 H K M
p pv pc -
c k cc (NAMA) by p
S b
c.3 , NAMA
(Ep)b cy k
bv 15 pc. Sc
k cc . I
pk c bc
c by c xp
pc c p
c. I c vy cy
k cc c k
c xp. c
v
b cy [Wb 2006] p
, D R y p ( Sc
4). F, b q,
k xcp p
pcb pb
c D A.
15 pc q S cc
y 25 (S 25) b bz
p
c ( S cc c b
vp c). H
xcp c ( xcp
c)? p p c
bound c (300
pc) applied (50 pc). A
3 T bc S = [/(+)] , p- , c c-c ( S cfc). T S cfc y .
S 60 jb. xcp c c S 60 pc
b p (y, 5 pc). Cc
c xb v b
6.7 14.7 pc, x b
50 pc (b y y p
b b 30 pc).
3.2 The negotiations in agriculture
I p c NAMA, D
v c y cpc
b 4. c c S
negotiatingc (y q 16 c
S ). F economic
p v, y
, c pv
. F domestic p v,
cy , c EC
pp, 49.9 pc b c
27.4 pc, 50.1 pc
b c 25 pc, c c
cc b vv.
F 1 c ,
cb p C
WO Ac C [Ap 30, 2007]. A
cp b c b
(EC) (U.S.) b
k cc vp c. C
y cc
c p b. F c v c
b , F 1 c cv
v S . A S 60 c EC
pp p-D bc
cy c U.S. pp p-
D c. A S 40 c U.S.
pp, b pc c EC p
c . Fy, v
S 404 c vy c
4 T v by = /( + )1/ pc cfc ( b ) c c , c b pc pp cc c. T v F 1 S40 pc cfc 1.4.
The Doha Negotiations
3
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO11
b by EC pp
vy c b by U.S.
pp .
S ppc pb.
py . D v
c b .
B c ppx S cv by
ppp .
c pb c . I bc c by S
cv ( c
, c ) pcy
b? Myb , z
c .
c y
foodpc ( q
) farm
pc (y q). p
k, v p
c c cc ,
c ()
pc by ( ) .
I, EC c
( cc WO b k
cc) cc pc.
EC pp p-D average
10.7 pc pc, cp
16.9 pc pc , p-
D maximum 43.7 105.7 pc,
pcvy.5 A p. I cy
v c p
5 T EC pc pc D R b p pc ( c , y, c), vy p (y) q-b pc (ccb, k, c).
Table 4: Tabled Proposals on Farm Tariff Cuts, 2005
EC proposal G20 proposal U.S. proposal
c(%)
c
(%)
c(%)
1 2 3 4 5 6
c b p vp c
>90% 60 >75% 75 >60% 85-90
60-90% 50 50-75% 65 40-60% 75-85
30-60% 45 20-50% 55 20-40% 65-75
0-30% 35 0-20% 45 0-20% 55-65
c b p vp c
b >130% 40 >130% 40 >60% []
80-130% 35 80-130% 35 40-60% []
30-80% 30 30-80% 30 20-40% []
b 0-30% 25
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States12
cp Ep pc
-c c pc.
b , xcp
b p? S , D v b
b pv c xcp
D R.
p xcp -
q (RQ). W , y
p bc RQ (ck
c, y --
q , q , q)[M 2007]. A y RQ -
farmersppcv c
y y cy
b b c .
A , ppc
NAMA ( , ppx
S S cc
xcp) pb. F
c, cc b x S
60 S 70 Ep
b c EC pp.
M, c p y 220
, c py ppxy
850 c pcy
b, cz
v y Ep
pc. I c cx, bc
c EC pp c
,
cv v, even EC ppcv.
I cc, p
ky c
p D R
cpcy c, cpby
v b k cc Ac
NAMA c.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
0.0 44.1 88.2 132.4 176.5 220.6 264.7 308.8
EC tiered formula
Swiss60 formula
Swiss40 formula
VariantSwiss40 formula
US tiered formula
Post-Doha
tariffs
(percent)
Pre-Doha tariffs (percent)
Figure 1: Assessing the Tiered Formulas for Tariff Cuts: The EC Case
US tieredformula
EC tieredformula
Swiss40
VariantSwiss40
Swiss60
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO1
I p ccy WOprocess c .
F c, by vk S
Rp [2004], c c
institutions. c
pc p p c v
b p p, y
vy . Hv, pc bc
cpcv y, c b c
b WO pcp. I ,
y pb c c ccy.
4.1 Shooting for shorter rounds
Hv kp
c. B j by
cvc , c p
pbc p. B
c b j c
. c pc
c, c U.S. c pc,
67 y
k pc c c
U.S. P.
p b ppcv. L
cc c
b p 1520 y
. Sc q
bz c k 20 y
. q c b,
v c. F c,
Ep b y v
S 25 ( ), c c by
S 15, c D R y b y
p by 2025 b.
4.2 The WTO should focus on its core
business: market access
WO c k cc
vc b b by
c, , v b b.
c vb Sp 2003 Cc M
vy c c cc.
c k cc
j by c c
v k cc
cc. B, p by
c v cc v
vp c [L 2002]. Dvp
c v b
c , pcy
v. A v vc yc, p 70 pc c
c GDP y
WO b. I , py
b c k cc.
b y pc
k cc v
WO. y b cz by
WO c, c
cy c .
B, c c,
(c IMF Bk I
S v k)
c v.
4.3 Market access in goods: Peeling
the Onion
S bjcv
c . I WO cc
- k c
pc. c v, b
vc pp . F c,
Uy R y
bz cp ( b 1) b bz ppcv v
b p
p pp.
I, -? I pc,
D R ( pbby cc)
Flexi-plining the WTO
4
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States1
vy pc. y ( cb b pp )
vp c. p
b vy v b
v c v x pp
c. A b c v
b q.
P py pc q
bz ( S
py) -
xcp ( p
pcb S cc).Hv, xcp
p p b b c.
A bz
y b pc b p p
pcb xcp. Sc ppc
v cx bc
pc b, b c
b p by p
b cb
q .
4.4 Market access in services: plurilaterals
and the coalitions of the willing
Op k vc q
p y k q
p-cpv y .
cy bc y c
yc pc c c c
vy c
. WO b
pc b c c c
b vc.
A H K M, D v p c
WO pc vc y
k p
k c p
k c-by-c b. I y
p cy b (pp), WO b- p
cp b b y-
.
M q cv vc. A
b y b y p
b , b
vy q v p
pby z
x b.
4.5 Re-interpreting the single undertaking
principle: positive discrimination
pv p S
Uk pcp vy WO b
. pcp p
Uy R, cy p
k
c. A , c p
.
y , c c p
bck. I y cp pb by WO bp
by k WO pc vb
b by b
bz. I pc yc
xp WO k
p WO b
b v pcc WO b:
L Dvp C (LDC), N
F Ip Dvp C (NFIDC),
S Vb Ec, C
Pc, Rcy Acc Mb, c.
A k , cc, y j WO y. S p WO
b jy LDC ; y WO
b p p
NFIDC, c. Sc v c
y cy.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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A Long erm View on the
Doha Round and the WO1
WO c. E, cc p S Uk
pv b p cp
c p, k p xp
via v c
WO. O S Uk pcp
v b -p y pc
c c p. I ppcv,
b ccv cb
p , b py. B
c, WO pc b c pvy
by p k v p
, y-
. -p S
Uk pcp cy c
v p c c c
p p WO pc.
8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States1
B, Rb E., 1986. cpc .
Aussenwirtschaft, 41(H II/III): 379-94.
B, C., 2007. U.S. Trade Policy: Balancing
Multilateralism, Regionalism and Bilateralism.
M, Ac Ep I,
W, DC.
B, J, 1995. U.S. Pcy:
I F A, B
J A O. K, ., The Dangerous
Drift to Preferential Trade Agreements, Ac
Ep I, W, D.C.
Ep C, 2006. Global Europe:
Competing in the World. Staff Working Document.
Ocb 4 SEC(2006)1230. p://.p.
Fb, R.E., 2003. Pc Ecy
U S F A. The
World Economy 26(7): 1019-40.
G M F, 2006. Perspectives on Trade
and Poverty Reduction. A survey of Public Opinion.
W, DC.
G, , 2007. Saving the Doha Round:
The Need for Political Leadership. Sv D
R Dv Dvp, N D.
L, S, 2002.Market Access Issues and the
WTO: An Overview, Hk, B., M, A.
E, P., E, Dvp,
WO: A Hbk. W Bk,
W, DC.
M, W, 2007. Tariff-cuts and flexibilities in the
presence of tariff rate quotas. M, Ap 6. W Bk, W, DC.
M, W, P. M, 2007. Why is it sodifficult? M, Gp Ec M
Scc P (GEM), P, Fc, W
Bk, W.
M, Pck, 2007. How Much Further
Can the WTO Go? Developed Countries Issues.
Pcy M C (CEPR K
I). F Gp Ec
M Scc P (GEM) p://.
cc-p.
M, Pck A., 2007b.Assessing the EC Trade
Policy in Goods: The Case of the Doha Negotiations.
ECIPE (Ep I I
Pc Ecy) B. Db
p://.cp.
S Rp, 2004. The Future of the WTO
Addressing Institutional Challenges in the New
Millenium, W Oz, Gv.
Wb, Mc, 2006. Business and Trade
Liberalization. A ECIPE Lc
Cc, Nvb 7, 2006. ECIPE (Ep
I I Pc Ecy) B
W Bk, 2005. Global Economic Prospects 2005:
Trade, Regionalism and Development. W
Bk, W, D.C.
W Oz, C, C
Ac, 2007. Communication, Ap 30.
W Oz, Gv.
References
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8/8/2019 A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO
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