44 th Annual Mid-Pacific Region 2011 Water Users Conference Water Supply Outlook Reno, Nevada...

44th AnnualMid-Pacific Region

2011 Water Users ConferenceWater Supply Outlook

Reno, NevadaJanuary 26-28, 2011

Central Valley Project OperationsSacramento, CA

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011

Folsom Dam Flood Releases December 2010

Chart from California Data Exchange Center

8-Station Index Precipitation

Chart from California Data Exchange Center

5-Station Index Precipitation

Sierra Snow Pack

Chart from California Data Exchange Center

Chart from California Data Exchange Center

Three-Month Precipitation OutlookFeb – Apr 2010

Chart from NOAA - CNRFC

Current Reservoir Storages

Chart provided by California Data Exchange Center

CVP ReservoirStorage (TAF)

Reservoir Capacity 15-yr Avg WY2010 WY 2011

Trinity 2,448 1,688 1,018 1,796

Shasta 4,552 3,097 2,413 3,457

Folsom 977 454 295 458

New Melones 2,420 1,661 1,208 1,579

Fed San Luis 966 762 558 888

Total 11,363 7,662 5,492 8,178

January 24, 2011

Key Water Supply Assumptions

• Hydrology based on January 1 conditions• Operations to meet SWRCB WRD-1641• Use of current Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives of NMFS BiOp and FWS BiOp• Use of approximately 270 TAF of Rescheduled Project water in San Luis Reservoir• San Joaquin River flows/Mendota Pool operations not included in supply• Capacity for Joint Point of Diversion operations at Banks Pumping Plant is not available• Water supply augmentation actions are available

Key CVP Operations Points

• San Luis Reservoir fills in early February

• Jones Pumping Plant is at maximum capacity in July, August, and September

• Roe Island water quality is not triggered for February (x2)

Water Supply OutlookStanislaus River

90% and 50% Exceedence100% Project Water (155,000 acre-feet)

Mid-Pacific RegionInitial Water Year 2011 Supply Forecast

January 18, 2011

Probability ofExceedenceForecasts

Percent ofHistorical AverageSacramento ValleyIndex & Year Type

North of Delta South of Delta

Ag M&I R WR Ag M&I R WR

50% 111%Wet 100 100 100 100 50 75* 100 100

90% 88%Below Normal 100 100 100 100 45 75* 100 100

Recent Historic Average(5-Year Average Allocation) 76 90 100 100 49 77 100 100

WY 2011Water Supply Outlook

*Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries

Shasta ReservoirAnnual Inflow Projections

• Inflow to date: 1,696 TAF• Average Inflow to date: 1,883 TAF

• 90% Exceedence Projection: 4,960 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 6,380 TAF

• Historical WY Average: 6,107 TAF

New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections

• Inflow to date: 385 TAF• Average Inflow to date: 256 TAF

• 90% Exceedence Projection: 1,126 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 1,504 TAF

Thank You

South Central California Area OfficeFresno, CA

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011

2011 Friant Division Outlook

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct – Jan

2011-To-Date 11.65 5.53 17.57 3.48 38.23

2010 6.12 0.56 6.19 7.70 8.08 4.87 7.22 2.07 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 20.57

Average77-07

2.15 4.62 6.61 8.40 8.48 7.19 3.82 2.09 0.66 0.45 0.20 0.97 21.78

Crane Valley 22,895 AF45,500 AF

Mammoth Pool 85,836 AF122,000 AF

Edison Lake 75,728 AF125,000 AF

Huntington Lake62,555 AF89,000 AF

Florence Lake38,067 AF64,000 AF

Shaver Lake 28,553 AF136,000 AF

Kerckhoff Reservoir3,584 AF4,188 AF

Redinger Lake20,261 AF26,000 AF

Millerton Lake396,666 AF520,500 AF

San Joaquin Basin Upstream Storages

 January 25,

2011Total

Capacity2011 % Capacity

2010 % Capacity

Total Upstream Storage 337,479 611,688 55% 53%

Millerton Lake Storage 396,666 520,500 76% 45%

Total Storage 734,145 1,132,188 65% 49%

Maximum Upstream StorageJuly 21, 2010: 576,964 AF50%: 554,300 AF (July)90%: 554,300 AF (July)

Note:January 25, 2011: 337,479 AFJanuary 25, 2010: 323,839 AF

Note:January 25, 2011: 396,666 AFJanuary 25, 2010: 234,436 AF

Maximum Lake StorageJuly 6, 2010: 496,382 AF50%: 520,400 AF (July)90%: 497,450 AF (June)

2011 Cachuma Project Outlook

  Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-Jan

2011-ToDate

2.24 1.42 9.48 1.5814.72

2010 2.20 0.00 3.00 10.34 4.92 0.26 3.15 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.54

Average 0.68 1.92 3.09 4.38 4.65 3.50 1.57 0.38 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.21 10.07

Maximum Lake StorageApril 28, 2010: 178,075 AF10%: 192,895 AF (April)50%: 181,677 AF (March)90%: 174,108 AF (Jan)

Note:January 26, 2011: 174,959 AFJanuary 26, 2010: 152,005 AF

100% Water Supply – 25,714 acre feet

2011 Cachuma Project Water Supply Outlook

Thank You

Klamath Basin Area OfficeKlamath Falls, OR

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011

Klamath Basin Outlook

Snowpack Average and Peak1/26/2010 1/26/2011

Average Peak

Natural Resources Conservation Service January Klamath Basin Forecast

Average Probability (50% Exceedance) • Upper Klamath Lake Inflow (April – September)

• 585,000 acre-feet• 114% of average

• Clear Lake Inflow (February – July)• 125,000 acre-feet• 119% of average

• Gerber Reservoir Inflow (February – July)• 55,000 acre-feet• 117% of average

Thank You

Lahontan Basin Area OfficeCarson City, NV

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2011

Hundreds Attend Global Warming Protest

Current Snowpack Conditions(Snow Water Equivalent)

Total Precipitation To Date

Soil Moisture Content

Previous4-Year Average

Jan. 01, 2011 near60% Saturation

• Soils are very wet due to above avg. precip.

• Will improve runoff potential in the spring/summer

• Similar conditions in Tahoe and Truckee Basins

Range of HistoricalData (shaded)

Modified from NRCS

40%

30%

25%

Reservoir Storage

April-July Runoff Forecasts

Historical Truckee River Runoff April-July

Thank You

The 44th WUC Presentation Online at:

http://www.usbr.gov/mp/pa/wuc

Q and A