2012 4 4 0 0 7 ALTERNATIVAS POPULARES PARA VARIABLE DE … · 2017-10-23 · x'x 26...

ALTERNATIVAS POPULARES PARA VARIABLE DE INTERES

Y(IMPORTACIONES)

años x(ingreso) y(consumo) Ŷ e e^2

1991 1,92558E+13 2,24006E+14 40.961.045.766.484,20 21.705.263.432.984,20- 4,71118E+26

1992 2,7222E+13 2,35279E+14 49.267.536.538.465,00 22.045.528.609.265,00- 4,86005E+26

1993 3,92843E+13 2,40845E+14 53.368.571.946.312,00 14.084.308.390.312,00- 1,98368E+26

1994 4,63638E+13 2,549E+14 63.724.724.247.394,00 17.360.969.628.194,00- 3,01403E+26

1995 4,97302E+13 2,68161E+14 73.495.672.132.480,60 23.765.463.537.480,60- 5,64797E+26

1996 5,08694E+13 2,73674E+14 77.557.748.090.492,40 26.688.379.429.692,40- 7,1227E+26

1997 5,40199E+13 2,83062E+14 84.474.860.726.948,70 30.454.954.358.348,70- 9,27504E+26

1998 5,19061E+13 2,84675E+14 85.663.230.565.764,60 33.757.167.795.364,60- 1,13955E+27

1999 3,90953E+13 2,72707E+14 76.845.169.492.547,00 37.749.855.293.447,00- 1,42505E+27

2000 4,3878E+13 2,84761E+14 85.726.493.372.700,90 41.848.493.372.700,90- 1,7513E+27

2001 4,7713E+13 2,89539E+14 89.247.002.075.813,40 41.534.002.075.813,40- 1,72507E+27

2002 4,787E+13 2,96789E+14 94.588.920.890.707,80 46.718.920.890.707,80- 2,18266E+27

2003 5,1781E+13 3,08418E+14 103.157.358.669.798,00 51.376.358.669.798,40- 2,63953E+27

2004 5,71E+13 2,24006E+14 40.961.045.766.484,20 16.138.954.233.515,70 2,60466E+26

2005 6,3896E+13 2,35279E+14 49.267.536.538.465,00 14.628.463.461.535,00 2,13992E+26

2006 7,6655E+13 2,40845E+14 53.368.571.946.312,00 23.286.428.053.688,00 5,42258E+26

2007 8,7422E+13 2,549E+14 63.724.724.247.394,00 23.697.275.752.606,00 5,61561E+26

2008 9,658E+13 2,68161E+14 73.495.672.132.480,60 23.084.327.867.519,40 5,32886E+26

2009 8,7744E+13 2,73674E+14 77.557.748.090.492,40 10.186.251.909.507,60 1,0376E+26

2010 9,726E+13 2,83062E+14 84.474.860.726.948,70 12.785.139.273.051,30 1,6346E+26

2011 1,18158E+14 2,84675E+14 85.663.230.565.764,60 32.494.769.434.235,40 1,05591E+27

2012 1,2888E+14 2,72707E+14 76.845.169.492.547,00 52.034.830.507.453,00 2,70762E+27

2013 1,36584E+14 2,84761E+14 85.726.493.372.700,90 50.857.506.627.299,10 2,58649E+27

2014 1,47336E+14 2,89539E+14 89.247.002.075.813,40 58.088.997.924.186,60 3,37433E+27

2015 1,49425E+14 2,96789E+14 94.588.920.890.707,80 54.836.079.109.292,20 3,007E+27

2016 1,40128E+14 3,08418E+14 103.157.358.669.798,00 36.970.641.330.201,60 1,36683E+27

0,00 3,10012E+28

X'X 26 7,03364E+15

7,03364E+15 1,91797E+30

(X'X)^-1 4,853878914 -1,78003E-14

-1,78003E-14 6,57992E-29

X'Y 1,95616E+15

5,40386E+29

B - 124.090.078.164.974,00

0,74

σ^2 1,34788E+27 0

0 1,35E+27

V(B) 6,54243E+27 -2,39926E+13

-2,39927E+13 0,08868946

V(B) D(B) t

6,55E+27 8,09583E+13 - 0,00

0,08868946 0,297807757 8,31

INTERPRETACION:

Se tomó 13 datos para la repetición y proyectar el grafico donde se obtuvo un incremento en el consumo observándose así si se utiliza la

repetición de datos se puede observar un sesgo de 8,09583E+25. Si se obtiene un ingrese de cero.

0

5E+13

1E+14

1,5E+14

2E+14

2,5E+14

3E+14

3,5E+14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26x(ingreso) y(consumo)

años x(ingreso) y(consumo) Ŷ e e^2

1991 1,92558E+13 2,24006E+14 19.255.782.333.500,10 -0,05 0,00299072

1992 2,7222E+13 2,35279E+14 27.222.007.929.200,00 0,00 0

1993 3,92843E+13 2,40845E+14 39.284.263.556.000,00 0,00 0

1994 4,63638E+13 2,549E+14 46.363.754.619.200,00 0,00 0

1995 4,97302E+13 2,68161E+14 49.730.208.594.999,90 0,00 0

1996 5,08694E+13 2,73674E+14 50.869.368.660.800,00 0,00 0

1997 5,40199E+13 2,83062E+14 54.019.906.368.599,90 0,07 0,00494385

1998 5,19061E+13 2,84675E+14 51.906.062.770.399,90 0,06 0,00390625

1999 3,90953E+13 2,72707E+14 39.095.314.199.100,00 0,00 0

2000 4,3878E+13 2,84761E+14 43.878.000.000.000,00 0,00 0

2001 4,7713E+13 2,89539E+14 47.713.000.000.000,00 0,00 0

2002 4,787E+13 2,96789E+14 47.870.000.000.000,00 0,00 0

2003 5,1781E+13 3,08418E+14 51.780.999.999.999,90 0,06 0,00390625

2004 1,92558E+13 3,24866E+14 19.255.782.333.500,10 -0,05 0,00299072

2005 2,7222E+13 3,40156E+14 27.222.007.929.200,00 0,00 0

2006 3,92843E+13 3,62938E+14 39.284.263.556.000,00 0,00 0

2007 4,63638E+13 3,87983E+14 46.363.754.619.200,00 0,00 0

2008 4,97302E+13 4,01744E+14 49.730.208.594.999,90 0,00 0

2009 5,08694E+13 4,08379E+14 50.869.368.660.800,00 0,00 0

2010 5,40199E+13 4,24599E+14 54.019.906.368.599,90 0,07 0,00494385

2011 5,19061E+13 4,52578E+14 51.906.062.770.399,90 0,06 0,00390625

2012 3,90953E+13 4,7088E+14 39.095.314.199.100,00 0,00 0

2013 4,3878E+13 4,93831E+14 43.878.000.000.000,00 0,00 0

2014 4,7713E+13 5,15528E+14 47.713.000.000.000,00 0,00 0

2015 4,787E+13 5,31262E+14 47.870.000.000.000,00 0,00 0

2016 5,1781E+13 5,41675E+14 51.780.999.999.999,90 0,06 0,00390625

0,28 0,03149414

X'X 26 1,13798E+15

1,13798E+15 5,23618E+28

(X'X)^-1 0,788403775 -1,71343E-14

-1,71343E-14 3,91478E-28

X'Y

1,13798E+15

5,23618E+28

B 0,125000

1,000000

σ^2 0,00136931 0

0 0,00136931

V(B) 0,00107957 -2,34622E-17

-2,34622E-17 5,36055E-31

V(B) D(B) t

1,08E-03 0,032856811 115,79

5,36E-31 7,32158E-16 1865480221245950000000000000000,00

INTERPRETACIÓN: se puede observar que el repetición de datos que de un total de 26 fueron repetidos 13 datos de la

Variable del PIB generándose así un sesgo si tuviésemos un ingreso de 7,32158E+16 se genera un resultado de 0,0328566811

0

1E+14

2E+14

3E+14

4E+14

5E+14

6E+14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

x(ingreso) y(consumo)

Promedio de importaciones X(PIB)

años x(ingreso) y(consumo) COEFICIENTE Y(CONSUMO) Ŷ e e^2

1991 1,9256E+13 2,24006E+14 1 2,24006E+14 13.737.764.432.263,50 5.518.017.901.236,50 3,04485E+25

1992 2,7222E+13 2,35279E+14 1 2,35279E+14 21.646.380.484.499,50 5.575.627.444.700,53 3,10876E+25

1993 3,9284E+13 2,40845E+14 1 2,40845E+14 25.550.979.351.531,40 13.733.284.204.468,60 1,88603E+26

1994 4,6364E+13 2,549E+14 1 2,549E+14 35.411.079.672.597,20 10.952.674.946.602,80 1,19961E+26

1995 4,973E+13 2,68161E+14 1 2,68161E+14 44.714.006.433.223,70 5.016.202.161.776,31 2,51623E+25

1996 5,0869E+13 2,73674E+14 1 2,73674E+14 48.581.511.979.043,20 2.287.856.681.756,82 5,23429E+24

1997 5,402E+13 2,83062E+14 1 2,83062E+14 55.167.300.073.376,70 1.147.393.704.776,75- 1,31651E+24

1998 5,1906E+13 2,84675E+14 1 2,84675E+14 56.298.747.882.234,20 4.392.685.111.834,22- 1,92957E+25

1999 3,9095E+13 2,72707E+14 1 2,72707E+14 47.903.065.365.077,20 8.807.751.165.977,16- 7,75765E+25

2000 4,3878E+13 2,84761E+14 1 2,84761E+14 56.358.980.447.848,40 12.480.980.447.848,40- 1,55775E+26

2001 4,7713E+13 2,89539E+14 1 2,89539E+14 59.710.859.406.817,30 11.997.859.406.817,30- 1,43949E+26

2002 4,787E+13 2,96789E+14 1 2,96789E+14 64.796.904.290.141,80 16.926.904.290.141,80- 2,8652E+26

2003 5,1781E+13 3,08418E+14 1 3,08418E+14 72.954.920.282.994,40 21.173.920.282.994,40- 4,48335E+26

2004 5,71E+13 3,24866E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 47.001.859.148.473,80- 2,20917E+27

2005 6,3896E+13 3,40156E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 40.205.859.148.473,80- 1,61651E+27

2006 7,6655E+13 3,62938E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 27.446.859.148.473,80- 7,5333E+26

2007 8,7422E+13 3,87983E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 16.679.859.148.473,80- 2,78218E+26

2008 9,658E+13 4,01744E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 7.521.859.148.473,84- 5,65784E+25

2009 8,7744E+13 4,08379E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 16.357.859.148.473,80- 2,6758E+26

2010 9,726E+13 4,24599E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 6.841.859.148.473,84- 4,6811E+25

2011 1,1816E+14 4,52578E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 14.056.140.851.526,20 1,97575E+26

2012 1,2888E+14 4,7088E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 24.778.140.851.526,20 6,13956E+26

2013 1,3658E+14 4,93831E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 32.482.140.851.526,20 1,05509E+27

2014 1,4734E+14 5,15528E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 43.234.140.851.526,20 1,86919E+27

2015 1,4943E+14 5,31262E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 45.323.140.851.526,20 2,05419E+27

2016 1,4013E+14 5,41675E+14 1 3,53E+14 104.101.859.148.474,00 36.026.140.851.526,20 1,29788E+27

9,17324E+15 0,00 1,38493E+28

3,52817E+14

X'X 26 8,10344E+15

8,10344E+15 2,57722E+30

(X'X)^-1 1,920364343 -6,03811E-15

-6,03811E-15 1,93734E-29

X'Y 1,95616E+15

6,45888E+29

B - 143.407.533.623.928,00

0,70

σ^2 6,02146E+26 0

0 6,02E+26

V(B) 1,15634E+27 -3,63582E+12

-3,63582E+12 0,011665596

V(B) D(B) t

1,16E+27 3,4005E+13 - 4,22

0,011665596 0,108007389 6,50

INTERPRETACIÓN:

En este caso se realizó un promedio de los datos de importaciones dando un principio de datos de 13 para hallar los cambios realizados en el

promedio

De dichos datos como se puede observar en el grafico generándose un sesgo de 3,4005E+13 si en los datos se percibe un ingreso de 0,1080.

0

5E+13

1E+14

1,5E+14

2E+14

2,5E+14

3E+14

3,5E+14

4E+14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26x(ingreso) Y(CONSUMO)

años x(ingreso) X(INGRESO) COEFICIENTE y(consumo) Ŷ e e^2

1991 1,92558E+13 1,92558E+13 1 2,24006E+14 40.565.811.913.122,00 21.310.029.579.622,00- 4,54117E+26

1992 2,7222E+13 2,7222E+13 1 2,35279E+14 42.223.149.773.041,40 15.001.141.843.841,40- 2,25034E+26

1993 3,92843E+13 3,92843E+13 1 2,40845E+14 43.041.401.599.579,50 3.757.138.043.579,52- 1,41161E+25

1994 4,63638E+13 4,63638E+13 1 2,549E+14 45.107.694.546.002,90 1.256.060.073.197,08 1,57769E+24

1995 4,97302E+13 4,97302E+13 1 2,68161E+14 47.057.225.617.761,70 2.672.982.977.238,34 7,14484E+24

1996 5,08694E+13 5,08694E+13 1 2,73674E+14 47.867.704.129.071,20 3.001.664.531.728,80 9,00999E+24

1997 5,40199E+13 5,40199E+13 1 2,83062E+14 49.247.828.777.183,30 4.772.077.591.416,72 2,27727E+25

1998 5,19061E+13 5,19061E+13 1 2,84675E+14 49.484.936.164.589,20 2.421.126.605.810,77 5,86185E+24

1999 3,90953E+13 3,90953E+13 1 2,72707E+14 47.725.528.146.341,30 8.630.213.947.241,31- 7,44806E+25

2000 4,3878E+13 4,3878E+13 1 2,84761E+14 49.497.558.564.100,50 5.619.558.564.100,48- 3,15794E+25

2001 4,7713E+13 4,7713E+13 1 2,89539E+14 50.199.981.828.028,70 2.486.981.828.028,68- 6,18508E+24

2002 4,787E+13 4,787E+13 1 2,96789E+14 51.265.818.718.669,00 3.395.818.718.668,99- 1,15316E+25

2003 5,1781E+13 5,1781E+13 1 3,08418E+14 52.975.421.091.256,10 1.194.421.091.256,06- 1,42664E+24

2004 5,71E+13 7,52E+13 1 3,24866E+14 55.393.474.219.152,90 19.843.325.780.847,10 3,93758E+26

2005 6,3896E+13 7,52E+13 1 3,40156E+14 57.641.287.468.517,10 17.595.512.531.482,90 3,09602E+26

2006 7,6655E+13 7,52E+13 1 3,62938E+14 60.990.514.508.871,20 14.246.285.491.128,80 2,02957E+26

2007 8,7422E+13 7,52E+13 1 3,87983E+14 64.672.429.671.090,10 10.564.370.328.909,90 1,11606E+26

2008 9,658E+13 7,52E+13 1 4,01744E+14 66.695.461.595.517,90 8.541.338.404.482,12 7,29545E+25

2009 8,7744E+13 7,52E+13 1 4,08379E+14 67.670.886.115.434,90 7.565.913.884.565,09 5,72431E+25

2010 9,726E+13 7,52E+13 1 4,24599E+14 70.055.420.510.770,90 5.181.379.489.229,09 2,68467E+25

2011 1,18158E+14 7,52E+13 1 4,52578E+14 74.168.668.836.733,00 1.068.131.163.266,97 1,1409E+24

2012 1,2888E+14 7,52E+13 1 4,7088E+14 76.859.282.184.663,90 1.622.482.184.663,94- 2,63245E+24

2013 1,36584E+14 7,52E+13 1 4,93831E+14 80.233.354.250.468,90 4.996.554.250.468,89- 2,49656E+25

2014 1,47336E+14 7,52E+13 1 5,15528E+14 83.423.073.287.189,30 8.186.273.287.189,30- 6,70151E+25

2015 1,49425E+14 7,52E+13 1 5,31262E+14 85.736.159.857.856,20 10.499.359.857.856,20- 1,10237E+26

2016 1,40128E+14 7,52E+13 1 5,41675E+14 87.266.995.656.785,50 12.030.195.656.785,50- 1,44726E+26

1,95616E+15 0,00 2,39052E+27

7,52368E+13

X'X 26 9,17324E+15

9,17324E+15 3,48278E+30

(X'X)^-1 0,543838062 -1,4324E-15

-1,4324E-15 4,05991E-30

X'Y 1,54707E+15

5,82042E+29

B 7.634.278.727.462,25

0,15

σ^2 1,03936E+26 0

0 1,04E+26

V(B) 5,65242E+25 -1,48878E+11

-1,48878E+11 0,000421971

V(B) D(B) t

5,65E+25 7,51826E+12 1,02

0,000421971 0,020541933 7,16

INTERPRETACIÓN:

Se obtiene un dato y cálculo sobre el promedio de los 13 datos que son de la variable del PIB que generan un sesgo de 7,51826E+12 generando

ingreso de 0,020541933

0

1E+14

2E+14

3E+14

4E+14

5E+14

6E+14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

X(INGRESO) y(consumo)