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Ms Gwen Andrews Chief Executive
Some practical approaches to implementing the Kyoto Protocol
ISO Sydney - September 2001
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature last 1000 years
200
250
300
350
02004006008001000years before 2000 AD
CO
2 (
pp
m)
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
tem
pe
ratu
re (o
C)
Cape Grim and South PoleLaw Dome ice corestemperature change
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature last 420,000 years
100
150
200
250
300
350
0100,000200,000300,000400,000years before present
CO
2 (
pp
m)
-10
0
10
20
tem
pe
ratu
re (o
C)
5
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Observed Climate Change IPCC TAR 2001 Findings
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warmingobserved over the last 50 years is attributable to humaninfluences.
Global average temperatures have increased by 0.4oC - 0.8oCsince 1861 – most in the last 50 years.
snow cover has decreased by 10% since the 1960s arctic sea ice cover has decreased by 40% in recent
decades. global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres projections are for 1.4oC – 5.8oC temperature rise and sea
level rise of 0.09 – 0.88m by 2100 depending on level ofworld action
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Impacts and Vulnerabilities IPCC TAR 2001 Findings
• Average rainfall in Australia will decrease and water resources will be stressed
• Some agricultural production may initially benefit , but this benefit will disappear over time
• Tropical vector borne diseases will spread south
• Tourism will be affected by sea rises, ocean warming and snow cover reduction
• Insurance industry will factor in weather related risk
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Total National Emissions 1990 - 1999*
390 393 394 396 399413
424434
453 458
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Mt
CO 2
-e
*Excludes Land Clearing
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Emissions by Sector1990 & 1999
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300S
tatio
nary
ener
gy
Tra
nspo
rt
Fug
itive
Indu
stria
l P
roce
sses
Agr
icul
ture
For
estr
y an
d O
ther
Was
te
Land
Cle
arin
g
1990
1999
Mt C
O2 -
e
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UNFCCC & Kyoto ProtocolUNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol
How targets can be met:
1. Reductions in emissions in own country
2. Sequestration from sinks
3. International emissions trading (IET)
4. Joint Implementation projects with another country which has a target (JI)
5. Projects within a developing country (CDM)
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Australia’s Kyoto ProtocolTarget and Status
Principle of differentiation/equal effort
Limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 8% above 1990 by 2008/2012
Reduction of about 30% from BAU projection(EU windfall - UK/Germany & USSR sitution)
1999 situation 17.4% above 1990 not including land clearing or 7.3% accounting for land clearing / sinks under KP accounting basis
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Australia’s circumstances
heavy reliance on fossil fuels
production of energy and greenhouse intensive exports
significant transport needs
changing land use patterns
higher projected population growth than other developed countries
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Government Response Overview
$ 1 Billion over Five Years
Safeguarding the Future: Prime Minister’s $ 180 million 5 year package of November 1997 (25 programs, including establishment of the AGO, the world’s first dedicated greenhouse agency)
Measures for a Better Environment: $796 million additional funding over 4 years announced in May 1999 in conjunction with the New Tax System, including the $400 million GGAP
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The Policy Framework
To meet Australia’s greenhouse commitment in the most cost-effective manner possible without compromising economic competitiveness
Basically a three pronged, but overlapping approach: Voluntary Action (eg GHC, CCP, GES, GF) Regulated Mechanisms (eg MEPS, VFL, ABC) Market Measures (eg MRET, GGAP, EC, ET)
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Standards and GreenhouseStandards and Greenhouse
• Sinks
• Renewable Energy systems
• Building and Construction standards
• Sulphur Hexaflouride
• Emissions abatement projects
• Others?
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Outcomes from COP 6 Outcomes from COP 6 BonnBonn
Agreement on implementation issues under the Protocol and the Convention, including:
• assistance to developing countries in adaptation and technology transfer
• a compliance package
• the operation of the market mechanisms
• inclusion of sinks
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International agenda International agenda - - what next?what next?
• Finish “translating” Bonn agreement into the detailed rules needed for implementing the Protocol (COP 7 in Marrakech)
• Resolution of outstanding ratification issues for Australia, e.g. pathway towards participation by all major emitters
• Response to any alternative proposals by the United States
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The Australian Greenhouse Officeis the lead
Commonwealth agency on greenhouse matters
www.greenhouse.gov.au
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