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1980s- present: Peace Process and Challenges of the Future
Chronology
• 1982: Israeli invasion of Lebanon
• 1987: Palestinian uprising (intifada) in the Occupied Territories
• 1991: Gulf War and Madrid Conference
• 1993: Oslo Accords
• 1996: election of Netanyahu and beginning of breakdown of Accords
• 1998: Wye River
• 2000: the other Camp David and al-Aqsa intifada
• 2002: invasion and re-occupation of Palestinian lands
• 2003: new Israeli and possibly Palestinian elections
Background: situation in the Occupied territories, 1970s-1908s
(L) Beach Camp (Gaza), (M) Identity cards for Palestinians, (R) Gaza alley
House demolition Israeli Soldiers, al-`Amari CampRamallah
Occupied Territories, 1970s-1980s
• Economic situation
– Captive labor force
– taxes
• Political situation
– Settlements: 1967-1977: 770 1978-1977: 6,000 • Repression and control
– Land confiscations, house demolitions
– Movement restrictions (identity cards, etc)
– Imprisonment: administrative detention
– 1976 elections
• Palestinian politics and development of civil society
Light gray = IsraeliCivil and securityControl
Dark gray = Palestinian autonomous area
Medium gray = PalestinianAutonomous area but joint controlWith Israel
Blue circles, square, triangles =Israeli settlements
Israeli invasion of Lebanon, 1982
• Goals of “Peace for Galilee”
• Issue of deceit (Sharon)
• Chronology of events
– June 6 attack
– Siege of Beirut (summer)
– Ceasefire, Aug. 18
– Election (Aug) of Gemayel, assassination (Sep. 14)
– Sabra and Shatila massacre (Sep. 15-16)
• Marines and bombing, 1983
Effects of invasion
• PLO and Palestinians
• Israel
• Lebanon
• Groundwork for intifada
The intifada: some points
• Political opening
• Standing of Palestinians
• Gulf War and change of course
The intifada• “There was something in the air”
• Stages and tactics: organized resistance; civil disobedience; strikes; leaflets; economic boycott; demonstrations
• Unified National Leadership of the Uprising (UNLU)
• Islamist element; Hamas
• Gaza: 42% land expropriated since 1967. 70% population on land one fifteenth size of West Bank
Political demands and international arena
• Fourteen Points– Independent state/PLO– Coexistence w/Israel (recognition; two-state)– International conference (UN)– Stop settlements and land confiscations– Cancel special taxes
• 1988 Palestine National Council (Algiers– Declaration of Palestinian state (recognition)
– Acceptance of 242 and 338• US-PLO dialogue (called off 1989)• Repression, 1989• Labor withdrawal from national unity
government, 1989• Changing directions, 1990 and invasion of
Kuwait
The Gulf War: background
• Regional tensions• Iraq-Kuwait tensions• Iraq’s appeal to
deeper grievances in the region
• All of above led to attack, Aug. 2, 1990
The war
• Desert Shield (Oct. ’90)• Desert Storm (Nov.);
offensive begins Jan. 16• War finished: Feb. 27, 1991• The Aftermath: uprisings
(Shiites, Kurds)• “Safe havens,” May 1991
Aftermath
• UN Security Council Resolution 687:
– UN inspections
– Return of stolen property/compensation
– 1963 boundaries
– Embargo on food &emergency goods lifted
– Ban on oil and export to be negotiated
• Casualties, damage, politics, refugees
• “New world order”?
Toward Peace….?
• Situation of PLO• Madrid Conference
(Oct., 1991)• Situation of Israel (loan
guarantees, Labor victory, June 1992)
• Oslo: secret talks (winter 1993)
Haidar Abd al-Shafi and Hanan Ashrawi
Oslo Accords: in theory
• Declaration of Principles (DOP)
• 5-yr interim agreement:– Withdrawal from Gaza-
Jericho
– Council election
– Redeployment
– Permanent status negotiations (slated for 1995-1998)
Oslo Accords: reality
• 1994 Jordan agreement
• Nov. 4, 1995 Rabin assassination
• Spring ’96: bus bombings, Lebanon adventure, Netanyahu elected
• March 1997 settlement construction
• More bombings
Problems/critique of Oslo
• Inequality; lack of reciprocity
• Vagueness; unequal balance
• Autonomy: people not territory
• Military law
• Israeli control issues (Council, e.g.)
• Israeli security issues
Effects
• Restrictions and closures• Land expropriations• Economy• Disillusionment• Failure of Wye, Camp David II (August 2000)• Sharon’s visit to Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount (Sep. 2000) and
al-Aqsa intifada• Invasion and re-occupation
Proposed map of Camp David II (summer 2000)
Orange = proposedPalestinian sovereignty
Light tan = initially Israeli-designatedSecurity zone, to be transferred toPalestinian sovereignty
Blue areas and blue triangles = Israeli Cities and settlements shownprojected size
Blue lines (==) = network of existingOr planned Israeli thoroughfares
Where are we now?
Bus bombing by Hamas
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