View
32
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
- PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
10 January 2013
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model and Production Advancements for 2013 with
Targeted Improvements for Reliable Convective Weather Guidance in the
National Airspace System
NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB
Curtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Tanya Smirnova, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann, Ming Hu, John Brown, and Georg Grell
13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale)
13km RUC (mesoscale)
3km HRRR (storm-scale)
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RAP, hourly 15-h fcst
Replaced RUC at NCEP 05/01/12WRF, GSI, RUC features
Hourly Updated NWP Models
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 2
Model Version Initialized Forecast Length Run Time # CPUs Disk Space
RAP WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 18 hrs ~30 min 200 230 GB (per run)
HRRR WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 15 hrs ~50 min 1128 800 GB (per run)
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Height Lowest Level
Pressure Top Initialized
RAP GSD,NCO
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 8 m 10 mb Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 8 m 20 mb Hourly
(no-cycle)
RAP and HRRR Resources
NOAAHigh-Performance Computer System
Number of Filesystems
Total Reserved Disk Space CPU Type Total Reserved
CPUsPerformance
Increase
Jet (current) 3 190 TB Intel Nehalem 1736 -
Zeus (new) 2 443 TB Intel Westmere 2774 30%
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 3
13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast
13-kmResolution
ParameterizedConvection
3-kmResolution
ExplicitConvection
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesKey Advantage of 3-km HRRR
ACCURATESTORM
STRUCTURE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OFPERMABILITY
NOSTORM
STRUCTURE
NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY
07 June 2012
5 PM EDTobserved
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 4
Verification of RAP-ESRL vs HRRRCold Season (29 Jan 2012 – 31 Mar 2012)
HRRR vs RAPLeadTime Clouds Precip
(13 km)Reflectivity
(40 km) Upper-Air Surface
Ceiling < 500 ft
Vis < 0.5 mile
> 0.1 inch
> 1.0 inch 25 dBZ 35 dBZ Temp RH Wind Temp Dewpt Wind
3-hr HRRR HRRREqual RAP
Equal HRRR HRRR Equal RAP HRRR RAP HRRR6-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR Equal RAP HRRR Equal HRRR
12-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP HRRR HRRR HRRR
Warm Season (01 May 2012 – 31 Aug 2012)HRRR vs RAP
LeadTime Clouds Precip
(13 km)Reflectivity
(40 km) Upper-Air Surface
Ceiling < 500 ft
Vis < 0.5 mile
> 0.1 inch
> 1.0 inch 25 dBZ 35 dBZ Temp RH Wind Temp Dewpt Wind
3-hr HRRR HRRREqual RAP
HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP Equal RAP Equal6-hr HRRR Equal HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP Equal Equal Equal
12-hr HRRR RAP HRRR HRRR HRRR RAP RAP HRRR Equal Equal
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 5
3-km Interp
Hourly HRRR Initialization from RAP
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
Cloud Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcs
tHMObs
ReflObs
18 hr fcst
15 hr fcst 3-km Interp
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
Cloud Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcs
t
HMObs
ReflObs
18 hr fcst
15 hr fcst 3-km Interp
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
Cloud Anx
DigitalFilter
HMObs
ReflObs
18 hr fcst
15 hr fcst
13 km RAP
3 km HRRR
13z 14z 15z
Reflectivity
Convergence Cross-Section
RAPHRRR
RADAR
RAPHRRR
no radar
00z 12 Aug 2011
00z init
Convergence Cross-Section
Reflectivity
01z 12 Aug 2011
+1h fcst
RAPHRRR
RADAR
RAPHRRR
no radar
Eastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ11-21 August 2011
• 3km HRRR forecasts improve upon RAP 13km forecasts, especially at coarser scales much better upscaled skill
• Radar DDFI adds skill at both 13km and 3km
CSI 13 km CSI 40 km
HRRR no radarRAP no radar
HRRR radarRAP radar
HRRR no radarRAP no radar
HRRR radarRAP radar
Radar Reflectivity Verification
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 9
Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum Param PBL LSM
RAP WRF-ARW v3.3.1+ GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/
Goddard Thompson G3 + Shallow MYJ RUC
HRRR WRF-ARWv3.3.1+
None: RAP I.C. No RRTM/
Dudhia Thompson None MYJ RUC
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Pressure Top
Boundary Conditions Initialized
RAP GSD,NCO
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 10 mb GFS Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 20 mb RAP Hourly - RAP
(no-cycle)
RAP and HRRR Config 2012
Model Horiz/VertAdvection
ScalarAdvection
Upper-LevelDamping
SW RadiationUpdate Land Use MP Tend
Limit Time-Step
RAP 5th/5th Positive-Definite
w-Rayleigh0.2 10 min MODIS
Fractional 0.01 K/s 60 s
HRRR 5th/5th Positive-Definite
w-Rayleigh0.2 5 min MODIS
Fractional 0.07 K/s 20-23 s
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10
Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum Param PBL LSM
RAP WRF-ARW v3.4.1+ GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTMG/
RRTMG Thompson G3 + Shallow MYNN RUC9-level
HRRR WRF-ARWV3.4.1+
None: RAP I.C. No RRTMG/
RRTMG Thompson None MYNN RUC9-level
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Pressure Top
Boundary Conditions Initialized
RAP GSD,NCO
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 10 mb GFS Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 20 mb RAP Hourly - RAP
(no-cycle)
RAP and HRRR Config 2013
Model Horiz/VertAdvection
ScalarAdvection
Upper-LevelDamping
SW RadiationUpdate Land Use MP Tend
Limit Time-Step
RAP 5th/5th Positive-Definite
w-Rayleigh0.2 10 min MODIS
Fractional 0.01 K/s 60 s
HRRR 5th/5th Positive-Definite
w-Rayleigh0.2 5 min MODIS
Fractional 0.07 K/s 20-23 s
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 11
HRRR Forecast Behavior
2013 Targets
(1) 3-km scale at 00-hr
(2) Reduced “spin-up”
during forecast period
(3) Optimal echo top bias
(4) Reduced latency of 1-2
hrs
(5) Dual HPCS reliability
RAP/HRRRModelDevelopment andEvaluation
2012
(1) Coarse 00-hr analysis
(2) Convective “spin-up”
during forecast period
(3) Low echo top bias
(4) Latency of 2-3 hrs
(5) Single HPCS reliability
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 12
Model Data Assimilation
RAP-ESRL(13 km)
WRFv3.4.1+ incl. physics changes (convection, snow-radiation fix)Numerics changes: 6th-order diffusion near surfacePhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer) Modified roughness length RRTMG short/longwave radiation Thompson microphysics update
Merge with GFS trunk
GFS ensemble background error cov
Cloud fraction assimilation Full column cloud building
Radiance bias correction
Reduced observation error(sharper inversions, low-level thermo)
HRRR (3 km)
WRFv3.4.1+ incl. physics changes (convection, snow-radiation fix)Numerics changes: 6th-order diffusion near surfacePhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer) Modified roughness length RRTMG short/longwave radiation Thompson microphysics update
3 km/15 min reflect assimilation3 km cloud cycling3 km land-surface cycling
RAP and HRRR Changes 2013
3-km Interp
2013: Cycled Reflectivity at 3 km
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
Cloud Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcs
t
HMObs
ReflObs
18 hr fcst
3-km Interp
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
Cloud Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcs
t
HMObs
ReflObs
18 hr fcst
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
Cloud Anx
DigitalFilter
HMObs
ReflObs
18 hr fcst
3 km HRRR
13z 14z 15z13 km RAP
15 hr fcst1 hr pre-fcst
Refl Obs
1-hr Reduction In Latency for 14z HRRR
Latent Heating (LH) Specification
Obse
rved 3
-D R
adar
Reflect
ivit
y
Tim
e (
min
)
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)
Temperature Tendency (i.e. LH) = f(Observed Reflectivity)LH specified from reflectivity obs applied in four 15-min periodsThe observations are valid at the end of each 15-min pre-fcst periodNO digital filtering at 3-kmHour old mesoscale obsLatency reduced by 1 hr
LH = Latent Heating Rate (K/s)p = PressureLv = Latent heat of vaporizationLf = Latent heat of fusionRd = Dry gas constantcp = Specific heat of dry air at constant pf[Ze] = Reflectivity factor converted to
rain/snow condensatet = Time period of condensate formation
(600s i.e. 10 min)16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 15
Observed Radar Reflectivity (3-D)Based Latent Heating
Model MicrophysicsLatent Heating0
Weig
ht
1
-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)
0
Weig
ht
1
-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)
Experiment 1a “Fixed” Experiment 1b “Ramp”
0
Many options for weighting LH specification vs model LHTwo approaches including:(a)100% specification for the entire pre-forecast hour (b) Time-varying with linear ramp down to 0% specification at 1 hr
Option (b) permits more “free model” behavior before additional DA
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 16
Latent Heating (LH) Specification
0-h fcstwithout 3-km
radar DA
Obs0000 UTC11 June
2011
0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(fixed)
0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)
Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration
1-h fcstwithout 3-km
radar DA
Obs0100 UTC11 June
2011
1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(fixed)
1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)
Convective systems more mature even by 1-hr
3-day retrospective period 09-12 June 2011 (36 runs)Forecasts every 2 hours
> 25 dBZ Composite ReflectivityEastern half of US
Upscaled to 40-km grid
With 3-km fixed radar DAWith 3-km ramp radar DAWithout 3-km radar DA
Bias = 1.0
Native3-km grid
Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr
Benefit persists until 4 hrsVery similar skill at longer lead times
HRRR Reflectivity Verification
14-day retrospective period June 2011 (160 runs)Forecasts every 2 hours
> 25 dBZ Composite ReflectivityEastern half of US
Upscaled to 40-km grid
With 3-km ramp radar DAWithout 3-km radar DA
Bias = 1.0
Native3-km grid
Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr
Benefit persists until 4 hrsVery similar skill at longer lead times
HRRR Reflectivity Verification
0-h fcstwithout 3-km
radar DA
Obs1800 UTC29 May 2011
0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)
Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration
0-h fcstwith fully
cycled 3-km DA
6-h fcstwithout 3-km
radar DA
Obs0000 UTC30 May 2011
6-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)
6-h fcstwith fully
cycled 3-km DA
Fully Cycled 3-km DA shows improved structures
CoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LLProvide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community
HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTC
VIL
Ech
o T
op
CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTC
ObservationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011
Blend with CIWS
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Forecasts for Aviation
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 23
New HRRR ET Diagnostic
Calibration of echo tops to produce improved bias
Current 2012 HRRR ET Diagnostic
(1) In each column starting from the top model level, locate the height of the first model level (if any) where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 18 dBZ
Proposed new HRRR ET Diagnostic
(1) In each column starting from the top model level, locate the height of the first model level (if any) where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 18 dBZ
(2) If and only if (1) is satisfied, repeat search through model column and locate the height of the first model level whereHRRR reflectivity ≥ 11 dBZ
(3) Interpolate between modellevel height identified in (2) and height of next level
above to estimate exact 11 dBZ height
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 24
HRRR 4 hr forecast
Observation01z 21 June 2012
Old2012
Echo Tops (kft)
New HRRR ET Diagnostic
Current 2012 low bias in echo tops
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 25
NEW2012
New HRRR ET Diagnostic
HRRR 4 hr forecast
Observation01z 21 June 2012
Echo Tops (kft)
Calibration of echo tops to produce improved bias
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 26
HRRR ET Diagnostic VerificationEastern US 03-km BIAS 344 runs 08-25 July 2012
25 kft 30 kft
35 kft 40 kft
Optimal Optimal
OptimalOptimal
New ETOld ET
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 27
HRRR ET Diagnostic VerificationEastern US 40-km CSI 344 runs 08-25 July 2012
25 kft 30 kft
35 kft 40 kft
New ETOld ET
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 28
Public UsersESRLJet
HRRRPrimary
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesCurrent “Single” HPCS Dataflow
Zeus
Obs Data(Radar, Satellite,
Lightning, Conventional)
NCEP/NCO
Obs
HRRR grids
Obs
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 29
RAPPrimary
HRRR grids
HRRRBackup
RAPBackup
Everything Depends on Jet and ESRL Availability
Public UsersESRLJet
HRRRPrimary
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesPlanned 2013 Dual HPCS Dataflow
Zeus
Obs Data(Radar, Satellite,
Lightning, Conventional)
NCEP/NCO
Obs
HRRR grids
Obs
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 30
RAPPrimary
HRRR grids
HRRRBackup
RAPBackup
Obs
HRRR grids
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 31
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 32
CoSPA Evaluation Periods
Development and Upgrade Periods
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR ReliabilityHRRR 12 hr fcst availability
Includes all missed/incomplete runs
3 month running average
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 33
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability
CoSPA Evaluation Periods
Development and Upgrade Periods3 month running average
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes three (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 34
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs
Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 35
Jet Maintenance
Jet or Zeus (union)
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 36
Jet or Zeus (union)
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes three (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 37
• Current – 1 computer running HRRR– NOAA/ESRL – Boulder– Current reliability: 97% for last 12h months
(allowing up to 3h gaps)
• 2013-14 – 2 computers running HRRR – interim solution– Boulder – computer 1– Fairmont, WV – computer 2– Expected reliability to increase further to 98.5-99% via coordination of
downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers
• Est. 2015 – NCEP running HRRR– NOAA/NCEP computing budget – will allow no increase before 2015
• Conclusion: Interim HRRR computing for 2012-14 on 2 sites to provide “real-time experimental” HRRR from NOAA for NWS, FAA, DOE/energy users
HRRR Transition to NCEP
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 38
• Moist bias reduced in 2012 RAP and HRRR– Reduced false alarms, lower precipitation bias– GSI enhancements and WRF upgrade to v3.3.1– Reflectivity diagnostic consistent with microphysics
• Science: Focus on 3-km assimilation for 2013– 3-km variational analysis– 3-km non-variational cloud analysis– 3-km radar reflectivity data assimilation
• Technical: Reduced latency for 2013 (2-3 hrs now)– Approximate 1-hr reduction in execution time (1-2 hrs)– Faster post-processing with parallelization– Direct GRIB2 generation
Summary and Plans
16th ARAM Conf 10 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 39
Recommended