13 shapiro ccsa

What next for CCS – CCSA perspective

Judith Shapiro

UKCCSC Early Career Winter

School, Cambridge

Thursday 12th January 2012

The Carbon Capture & Storage Association

www.ccsassociation.org info@ccsassociation.org

Agenda

• The CCSA

• 2011 – what happened

• 2012 – what to expect

• CCSA Strategy

• Opportunities

• Key issues

What is the CCSA?

It is:

A Business Association formed in the UK to represent the interests of its members in promoting the business of geo-CCS wherever opportunities may exist, as well as assisting policy developments in the UK, EU and internationally towards a long-term regulatory framework for CCS, as a cost-effective means of abating CO2 emissions

It is not:

A technical forum, a professional institute or an environmental or climate campaign group.

Vertical slice of policy

influence

• UK

• Europe

• International

CCSA Members (74)

2Co Energy Air Liquide Air Products Aker Clean Carbon Allen & Overy Alstom Power AMEC Anthony Veder Group Arup BG Group BOC BP Calix Camco International CCS TLM Chevron Clean Energy Group CMS Cameron McKenna CO2 Sense (Yorkshire) CO2Tech Centre Mongstad

ConocoPhillips Costain DNV Doosan Power Drax Power Durham University EDF Energy EON ERM ESB Fluor Gassnova GDF Suez GE Energy Herbert Smith Howden Group Jacobs Engineering Linklaters Lloyd’s Register Maersk Oil & Gas Masdar Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

MMI Engineering N8 Nottingham Centre for CCS National Grid National Physical Laboratory Norton Rose Peel Energy Perenco Petrofac CO2DeepStore Poyry Progressive Energy PWC Rhead Group Rio Tinto RPS Sasol Schlumberger Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage

Scottish Enterprise Scottish European Green Energy Centre ScottishPower Senergy SGS United Kingdom Shell Siemens Statoil Tata Steel Tees Valley Unlimited Total Vattenfall Wood Group Energy Zurich

2011 – what happened

A turbulent year:

Demo 1 not proceeding

Funding

Delays

…But:

Ferrybridge CC Pilot 100+

Demo 1 Feed studies

Electricity Market Reform

CCS in CDM

Electricity Market Reform

• Feed in Tariff Contract for Difference

CCS on equal footing other low-carbon technologies

World’s first mechanism to incentivise CCS beyond demonstrations

Transitional arrangements

• Carbon Price Floor

£30/tCO2 (2020)

£70/tCO2 (2030)

• Emissions Performance Standard Set at 450g CO2/kWh

• Capacity payments

2012 – what to expect (1)

Launch of Demo programme

Aim: cost-competitive CCS in the 2020s

(comparable to other low carbon technologies) Projects operational 2016-2020

Flexible approach

Consideration of part-projects and cluster (+ industrial)

Contract signature within 6-9 months

what’s still on the table? £1bn reallocated

EMR (FiT CfD)

NER300

£125m CCS R&D Programme

CCS Roadmap – Published Q1 2012

• More clarity on EMR FiT CfD

• NER300 Selection process to conclude 2H 2012

12 CCS projects submitted in total (6 from UK)

Challenges (NER300)

Taking longer to implement than expected

Uncertainty over level of support; EUA price & MS support

Number of early projects delayed

•Launched 8th September 2011

•Sets out CCS industry view on the ambition for CCS to reach 2030 decarbonisation of the power sector

•How to get from Demos to commercial roll-out of CCS in the 2020s

•Download from CCSA website:

http://www.ccsassociation.org/

CCSA Strategy

CCSA Strategy - Ambition

• UK Climate Change targets: Reduce GHG emissions by at least 34% by 2020 Reduce GHG emissions by at least 80% by 2050

• Committee on Climate Change (CCC) recommends decarbonised power sector by 2030 • 70GW of low carbon electricity required by 2030 • EMR noted 1/3 of electricity from renewables by 2030. Remaining 2/3 should be met by nuclear, CCS abated fossil fuels and some unabated fossil fuels.

CCSA therefore believes 20-30 GW CCS by 2030 is an appropriate ambition

1.6 GW in 7

UK Demos 1-4

UK target

20 GW by 2030

CCS in o

tion (

Trajectory

Trajectory – ‘Progressive Roll-Out’

3GW/yr

1.6 GW in 7 yrs

0 2015

2025 2030

CCS in o

tion (

2GW/yr

1GW/yr

Initial projects will enable networks to de-risk and lower costs of

further projects

2 -4 networks established by 2020 & Retrofits underway

All Regional networks initiated by 2025

First industrial CCS Demo

before 2020

Many industrial

CCS projects

underway by 2025

Large scale storage in saline

formations as well as depleted gas fields likely to be needed by 2020

UK target

20 GW by 2030

Costs of CCS – Power

• Latest levelised COE data show CCS with gas or coal to be a competitive low carbon electricity option

• CCS Investment costs (£1-2Bn/GW) are lower than nuclear (£3Bn/GW) or offshore wind (£7 Bn/GW)

•CCS is reliable and flexible, and able to complement nuclear and renewables

•CCS causes much less of an increase on Overall System costs (grid, interconnectors, back-up) than alternatives (+15% vs +40%)

•Source: Committee on Climate Change.

•CCC Calculations based on Mott MacDonald (2011) Costs of low carbon generation technologies

Costs of CCS - Industrial

Source: DECC Clean Coal industrial Strategy based on IEA Technology Roadmap for CCS

• Industrial CCS costs between 20 and 100 USD/t

•There is rarely a renewable alternative

•Some of these costs are less than the ETS carbon price floor* so CCS may be a cheaper option than buying certificates

•*UK Carbon Price Floor will be £70 (113$ ) in 2030

Total Jobs

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

UK Possibly UK Non UK

Opportunities

Source : IPA Scotland

UK plc business could be valued at more than £10Bn/yr by 2025

Potentially more than 50,000 jobs in UK by 2035

Potentially more than 20,000 jobs in UK by 2020

• Infrastructure Right-sized infrastructure (transport and storage)

Cluster/network solutions

Power and industrial

• Industrial Increasing costs of climate change policies

Few alternative options

Maintaining UK competitiveness

• Storage

• Regulations Third Party Access, Marine Planning, Petroleum to CCS licence transition, Financial Security provisions…

Key Issues

Contact

Judith Shapiro Policy & Communications Manager The Carbon Capture & Storage Association Suites 142-152 Grosvenor Gardens House 35/37 Grosvenor Gardens London, SW1W 0BS United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7821 0528 Mob: +44 (0) 7719 763 133 Email: judith.shapiro@ccsassociation.org Website: www.ccsassociation.org

13 shapiro ccsa

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