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7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Dr. Mark Seeley
1/24
How climate change
is playing out inMinnesota: Some data
and consequences inour own backyard
Dr. Mark Seeley
Extension Climatologist
Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate
University of MinnesotaMN Senate Environment and Energy
Committee
(Jan 22, 2013)
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Topics to be covered
Perceptions of climate behavior related to infrastructure
Evidence of vulnerability
Data trends in three climate attributesCharacter change in precipitation
Simultaneous extremes
Impacts and consequences
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Stationary (1)
Cyclical (2)
Variability (3)
Trend Shift (4)
Changnon et el
Perceptions of climate behavior
are built into the design of our
infrastructure (1,3)
Climate Science Fundamentals
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Vulnerability and Consequences Remain Key Societal Issues
Implications for land use, building codes, insurance, and infrastructure
Nearly $1.0 trillion in losses from the past 32 years (current dollars)
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RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNALCYCLE SHIFTS
DEWPOINTS: CHANGE IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKEATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR
MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY),HIGHER FRACTIONAL THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
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Temp trend is upward and more frequently above the
90th
percentile
*
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Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN
1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change Max Change Mean Change
January +3.0 +2.1 +2.5
February +0.1 +0.2 +0.1
March -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
April +1.3 +0.2 +0.7May +0.9 -0.8 +0.1
June +1.6 -0.4 +0.5
July +1.1 +0.2 +0.7
August +1.6 +0.4 +1.0September +1.3 +0.6 +1.0
October +1.7 -0.3 +0.7
November +2.1 +1.7 +1.9
December +2.2 +1.4 +1.8
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Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Willmar
1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)
Month Min Change Max Change Mean Change
January +3.4 +1.5 +2.9
February +0.8 +0.9 +0.8
March +0.9 +1.2 +1.0
April +0.7 +1.5 +1.1May +0.1 -0.1 NC
June +0.5 +0.2 +0.3
July +0.7 +0.5 +0.6
August +0.4 +0.7 +0.5September +0.9 +1.0 +0.9
October +0.5 +0.5 +0.5
November +1.3 +2.3 +1.7
December +2.1 +1.7 +1.8
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Amplified trends in average winter minimum
temperatures International Falls, MN
Period of Record
1951 - 1980
1961 - 1990
1971 - 2000
1981 - 2010
1951 - 1980
1961 - 1990
1971 - 2000
1981 - 2010
1951 - 1980
1961 - 1990
19712000
1981 - 2010
Ave Min Temp in Deg. F
Jan -11.0
Jan -8.4
Jan -8.3
Jan -6.6
Feb -4.8
Feb -0.7
Feb -0.6
Feb -1.3
Mar 8.9
Mar 12.3
Mar 12.6
Mar 12.5
7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Dr. Mark Seeley
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RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNALCYCLES SHIFTS
DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKEATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR
MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY),THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
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Trend in dewpoints of 70 F or higher in the Twin Cities
Hours with dewpoints of
70 degrees F or higher
at Voyageurs National
Park
Latitude 45 degrees
Latitude 48.5 degrees
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Frequencies of July tropical dew points (70 F or higher) andassociated Heat Index values for the Twin Cities since 1945
Year Hours with DP of Range of Heat
70 F or greater Index Values (F)1949 223 98 - 112
1987 223 98 - 104
1955 206 98 - 113
1999 192 98 115 (116*)
1957 192 99 114
2001 182 98 - 110
1977 160 100 - 108
1983 157 102 - 110
1995 110 98 - 1162002 305 98 109
2004 108 98 - 105
2011 243 98 118 (*134)
2012 186 99 - 117
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1883, 1894, 1901,1910, 1917, 1921,
1931, 1933, 1934,
1936, 1937, 1947,
1948, 1949, 1955,1957, 1959, 1964,
1976, 1977, 1983,
1988, 1995,1999,
2001, 2005, 2006,2007, 2010, 2011,
2012
(pattern is episodic but
increasing in frequency)
Historical Minnesota
Heat Waves:
Red denotes dewpoint driven
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RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TEMPERATURE: WARMER WITH SEASONALITY AND DIURNALCYCLES SHIFTS
DEWPOINTS: SHIFTS IN FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKEATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR
MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL (VARIABILITY),THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
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Change in Annual Precipitation
Normals at Willmar, MN
PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)
1921-1950 23.01
1931-1960 24.471941-1970 27.63
1951-1980 27.71
1961-1990 28.21
1971-2000 28.231981-2010 29.46
28 percent increase since 1921-1950
period
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Change in Annual Precipitation
Normals at Brainerd, MN
PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)
1921-1950 23.03
1931-1960 24.681941-1970 25.59
1951-1980 26.02
1961-1990 26.40
1971-2000 27.55
1981-2010 28.38
23 percent increase since 1921-1950 period
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Hi t i l i t l f 2 i h i i th IA d th
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Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in northern IA and southern
MN is once per year.
Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991
2012 and maximum single day value for various
communities:Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date)
Rosemount 42 5.80 (7/23/1987)Albert Lea 39 7.50 (6/15/1978)
Waseca 43 5.63 (9/23/2010)
Winona 35 4.95 (8/19/2007)
Zumbrota 43 6.46 (6/27/1998)Winnebago 41 8.64 (9/25/2005)
Bricelyn 39 9.22 (9/14/2004)
Amboy 36 9.48 (9/23/2010)
Hokah 33 15.10 (8/19/2007)
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Shift in Precipitation
RecurrenceIntervals?
Three 1000 year
events since 2004
(According to DNR-
State Climatology
Office)
Hi t i D ht
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1829, 1852, 1856
1863-1864, 1871-1872
1894, 1896, 1900,
1910, 1918, 1921-1923
1926, 1929-1934,
1936-1939, 1948,
1954-1956, 1961,
1976, 1980, 1984,
1987, 1988, 1997, 2005-
2006, 2007 2008
2009, 2010, 2011,2012
Historic Droughts(Associated fires)
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
XXX
X
X = 24 counties included in
USDA drought disaster
declaration of August 7, 2007
Note: adjacent 32 counties
were also eligible for
assistance
X= Counties included in
federal flood disaster
declaration of August20, 2007 and eligible
for FEMA assistance
Climate Singularity
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MN Counties
designated for
federal disaster
assistance in
2012
All areassociated with
drought except
those with
Which designatesfor flood or severe
storm
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Some Consequences of Climate Change
Longer growing seasons-change in plant hardiness zonesShorter duration of soil and lake freezing
Later fall nitrogen applications (soil temp too high)
Change in over winter survival rates of biological organisms
Change in fisheries management (stocking, fishing opener, etc)
Opportunities for invasive species (insects, pathogens, etc.)
Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles (damaged roads)
Longer mold and allergen season (health care)
Amplified moisture variability-impacts on tile drainage, irrigation,
surface and ground water systems-growing list of impaired watersMore heat advisories and heat warnings (health care/livestock)
Increased risk of soil erosion
Work on flood mitigation and storm sewer runoff
Recommended