1 Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy Bill.Reimer @concordia.ca Bill.Reimer @concordia.ca...

1

Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy

Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy

Bill.Reimer@concordia.ca

nre.concordia.cawww.crrf.ca

2009/01/302009/01/30

Tom Beckley

Ray Bollman

David Bruce

Omer Chouinard

Ivan Emke

Greg Halseth

Bruno Jean

Patrice LeBlanc

Dianne Looker

Diane Martz

Solange Nadeau

John Parkins

Steve Plante

Doug Ramsey

Richard Stedman

Ellen Wall

Derek Wilkinson

Anna Woodrow

OutlineOutline

•What is rural-urban interdependence?What is rural-urban interdependence? Trade and exchangeTrade and exchange InstitutionsInstitutions EnvironmentEnvironment IdentityIdentity

•What strategic actions does it suggest for What strategic actions does it suggest for communities, urban centres, provinces? communities, urban centres, provinces? 8 Suggestions8 Suggestions

2

3

Canadian Rural Revitalization FoundationCanadian Rural Revitalization FoundationThe NRE Rural ObservatoryThe NRE Rural Observatory

…an International

Network

…an International

Network

Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade

4

Population trends: Rural minority in Canada in 1931

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

Rural (centres under 1,000)

Urban (centres 1,000+)

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 - 1996.

6

Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade

•Price of transporting goods has Price of transporting goods has dropped, transporting people has dropped, transporting people has increasedincreased

•Commodity communities shrinkingCommodity communities shrinking•Urban dependent on commoditiesUrban dependent on commodities

7

Canadian Balance of Trade 2007Canadian Balance of Trade 2007

8

Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade

•Price of transporting goods has Price of transporting goods has dropped, transporting people has dropped, transporting people has increasedincreased

•Commodity communities shrinkingCommodity communities shrinking•Urban dependent on commoditiesUrban dependent on commodities•Rural manufacturing remains strongRural manufacturing remains strong

Interdependence through Trade:Improving competitiveness

Interdependence through Trade:Improving competitiveness

9

http://www.warnerhockeyschool.com/http://www.warnerhockeyschool.com/

http://www.villagedeslilas.com/index.phphttp://www.villagedeslilas.com/index.php

10

Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade

•Price of transporting goods has Price of transporting goods has dropped, transporting people has dropped, transporting people has increasedincreased

•Commodity communities shrinkingCommodity communities shrinking•Urban dependent on commoditiesUrban dependent on commodities•Rural manufacturing remains strongRural manufacturing remains strong•Metro-adjacent communities growMetro-adjacent communities grow

11

Institutional InterdependenceInstitutional Interdependence

• Services regionalize, specialize, standardize, Services regionalize, specialize, standardize, professionalizeprofessionalize

• General policies insensitive to local conditionsGeneral policies insensitive to local conditions• Bureaucratic norms are challenging for ruralBureaucratic norms are challenging for rural• Innovations in governance can create opportunitiesInnovations in governance can create opportunities

Institutional Interdependence:Innovation

Institutional Interdependence:Innovation

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Nelson HydroNelson Hydro

http://www.mwmc.ca/http://www.mwmc.ca/

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Interdependence through Environments

Interdependence through Environments

•Water, food, footprints, global warming Water, food, footprints, global warming restructure interdependence understandingrestructure interdependence understanding

http://cwconline.org/http://cwconline.org/ http://www.fraserbasin.bc.cahttp://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca

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Interdependence through IdentityInterdependence through Identity

•New interdependence challenges local New interdependence challenges local identitiesidentities

• Immigration reinforces urban hegemonyImmigration reinforces urban hegemony

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Trade and exchangeTrade and exchange

Rural and Urban are InterdependentRural and Urban are Interdependent

InstitutionsInstitutions

IdentityIdentityEnvironmentEnvironment

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StrategiesStrategies• Look to urban demandLook to urban demand• Identify global niche marketsIdentify global niche markets• Integrate strangersIntegrate strangers• Build social infrastructureBuild social infrastructure• Build all capacitiesBuild all capacities• Make interdependencies visibleMake interdependencies visible• Consider regional opportunitiesConsider regional opportunities• Create venues for collaborationCreate venues for collaboration

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Strategy:Look to urban demand

Strategy:Look to urban demand

Strategy: Identify niche marketsStrategy: Identify niche markets

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http://www3.sympatico.ca/remi.rioux/lacledeschamps/http://www3.sympatico.ca/remi.rioux/lacledeschamps/

http://www.fibroconcept.com/http://www.fibroconcept.com/http://www.ccare.ca/http://www.ccare.ca/

Strategy: Integrate strangersStrategy: Integrate strangers

19http://www.scses.winkleronline.com/http://www.scses.winkleronline.com/

Strategy: Build Social InfrastructureStrategy: Build Social Infrastructure

• HealthHealth Public health nursesPublic health nurses Alcohol/Drug counselingAlcohol/Drug counseling Safe House ProjectSafe House Project Victim AssistanceVictim Assistance Block parentsBlock parents Al-AnonAl-Anon Literacy GroupLiteracy Group Take-Off-poundsTake-Off-pounds

• RecreationRecreation Darts clubDarts club Minor hockeyMinor hockey TR Boards, BikesTR Boards, Bikes Curling clubCurling club Happy HookersHappy Hookers Red Hat SocietyRed Hat Society Quilt GuildQuilt Guild Museum FoundationMuseum Foundation Ornothology GroupOrnothology Group Legion Legion Community Arts CouncilCommunity Arts Council

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• EducationEducation• Books Lapsit ProgramBooks Lapsit Program• TR Children’s CentreTR Children’s Centre• Northern Lights CollegeNorthern Lights College

Tumbler Ridge ExamplesTumbler Ridge Examples

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Strategy: Make Interdependencies VisibleStrategy: Make Interdependencies Visible

•FoodFood

•WaterWater

•EnvironmentEnvironment

Strategy: Think RegionallyStrategy: Think Regionally

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Strategy: Venues for collaborationStrategy: Venues for collaboration

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MRCsMRCs REDAsREDAs

Collaboration lessonsCollaboration lessons

•Strong regional institutionsStrong regional institutions

•Multiple venues of interactionMultiple venues of interaction

•Clear rules of accountability and Clear rules of accountability and representationrepresentation

•Common language and understandingCommon language and understanding

•Patience and tolerancePatience and tolerance

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Budget for BreakageBudget for Breakage

ConclusionsConclusions

•Rural and Urban are interdependentRural and Urban are interdependent

•Commodity economics are a rural burdenCommodity economics are a rural burden

•Agglomeration economies are trumpAgglomeration economies are trump

•Look for local assets and competitive Look for local assets and competitive advantage advantage

•Facilitate regional collaborationFacilitate regional collaboration

•Build local capacities (including social Build local capacities (including social infrastructure)infrastructure)

25

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Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy

Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy

Bill.Reimer@concordia.ca

nre.concordia.cawww.crrf.ca

2009/01/302009/01/30

Tom Beckley

Ray Bollman

David Bruce

Omer Chouinard

Ivan Emke

Greg Halseth

Bruno Jean

Patrice LeBlanc

Dianne Looker

Diane Martz

Solange Nadeau

John Parkins

Steve Plante

Doug Ramsey

Richard Stedman

Ellen Wall

Derek Wilkinson

Anna Woodrow

Population trends: Rural minority in Ontario in 1911

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Rural (outside centres of 1,000 or more)

Urban (centres 1,000+)

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 - 2001. Return

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Truck transport prices have fallen since the late 1970s

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

196

1

196

3

196

5

196

7

196

9

197

1

197

3

197

5

197

7

197

9

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

Implicit price index of the output of the truck transportation sector,relative to the GDP implicit price index (1986=100)

Source: Statistics Canada, GDP Implicit Price Index.

Figure 3

Return

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Global exposure means low population growth

Global exposure means low population growth

-5

0

5

10

15

20

low medium high

Exposure to the Global Economy

%popchg

1986-911991-961996-01

Constant boundary CSDsConstant boundary CSDsReturn

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Ontario International Balance of Trade 2007

Ontario International Balance of Trade 2007

Return

Auto

Auto

Rural and Small Town Canada has been gaining manufacturing employment,

relative to Canada as a whole

y = 0.1316x + 21.624

R2 = 0.6503

y = 0.1344x + 16.512

R2 = 0.47

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

*

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

Percent of Canada's manufacturing workers residing in rural and small town areas

Rural and Small Town = NSRU

Rural and Small Town = non-CMA/CA

Rural and Small Town = non-CMA/CA

Linear (Rural and Small Town = NSRU)

Linear (Rural and Small Town = non-CMA/CA)

Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. Non-self representing units (NSRUs) are smaller municipalities (generally less than 10,000 population). A Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) has a core population of 100,000 or more and includes neighbouring muncipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes to the core. A Census Agglomeration (CA) has a core population of 10,000 to 99,999 and includes neighbouring municipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes to the core. Rural and small town areas are non-CMA/CA areas. An asterisk (*) indicates some of the change may be due to a change in the survey design.

Return

Interdependence through Trade:Commuting

Interdependence through Trade:Commuting

32http://crerl.usask.ca/infrastructure/maps.phphttp://crerl.usask.ca/infrastructure/maps.php

Return

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Communal

Build all types of capacitiesBuild all types of capacities

Market

R ob sonE con om ic

Jon esS oc ia l

P o lsonP o lit ica l

S m ithP res id en t

Bureaucratic

Associative

Associative-based:Shared interests

E.g. recreation, charity, religious groups

Market-based:Contractual, short-term, supply and demand

E.g. commerce, labour, housing, trade

Bureaucratic-based:Rationalized roles, principles

E.g. government, law, corporations

Communal-based:Generalized reciprocity, identity, birthE.g. families, cultural groups, gangs

Return

Health Professionals - LocalHealth Professionals - Local

Services – All Sites (% yes)Services – All Sites (% yes) 19981998 20052005

DoctorsDoctors 47.447.4 42.142.1

NursesNurses 52.652.6 36.836.8

DentistsDentists 36.836.8 31.631.6

OptometristOptometrist 15.815.8 21.121.1

Dental surgeonDental surgeon 15.815.8 10.510.5

Home care visitsHome care visits 47.447.4 68.468.4

Social workersSocial workers 42.142.1 26.326.3 Return

Boards of Directors & FundingBoards of Directors & Funding

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

GovernmentFunding

CommunityFunding

MembershipFunding

Revenue fromServices

Board 2003Board 2005No Board 2003No Board 2005

ReturnNext

Staff & FundingStaff & Funding

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

GovernmentFunding

CommunityFunding

MembershipFunding

Revenue fromServices

Mixed vol & pd 2003

Mixed vol & pd 2005

Strictly vol 2003

Strictly vol 2005

Return

Source: Statistics Canada, Based on Catologue Nos. 91-213 and 91-520Source: Statistics Canada, Based on Catologue Nos. 91-213 and 91-520

Immigration is an increasingly important component of population growth.Immigration is an increasingly important component of population growth.

ReturnNext

Source: Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada.Citizenship and Immigration Canada.

Canada has welcomed over 1 million immigrants during the first five years of the millennium Canada has welcomed over 1 million immigrants during the first five years of the millennium

2002: Immigration 2002: Immigration and Refugee and Refugee Protection ActProtection Act

ReturnNext

Recent and new immigrants represented a low share of the predominantly rural population

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Predominantlyurban regions

Intermediateregions

All predominantlyrural regions

Rural metro-adjacent regions

Rural non-metro-adjacent regions

Rural northernregions

Percent of total population who are immigrants, 2001

New immigrants (1996-2001)

Recent immigrants (1981-1996)

Predominantly rural regionsStatistics Canada, Census of Populaton, 2001

Return

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Social Cohesion mitigates external context

Social Cohesion mitigates external context

Fluctuating Economy

Market-based SoCo

Bureaucratic-based

SoCo

AverageHH Income

Global with Bureaucraticor Local with non-

Bureaucratic

-$7,000

+$4,500 -$680

+$2,000

External factors have significant effects

Social cohesion can mitigate these effects

The relations are often conditional

$47,000$47,000

Return