1. 2 Sons and Daughters, August 22, 2013 A Shift in Performance Means Cautious Optimism August 21,...

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Sons and Daughters, August 22, 2013

A Shift in Performance

Means

Cautious Optimism

August 21, 2013

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Thoughts for Today

Some recent market trends.

What can we expect for 2013 and 2014?

Issues that will affect your efforts.

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Stronger Then Weaker

Date % of Increases

Nov 9 25

Nov 16 23

Nov 23 40

Nov 30 31

Dec 7 36

Dec 14 37

Dec 21 43

Dec 28 50

Jan 11 36

Jan 18 33

Jan 25 41

Feb 1 36

Feb 8 41+

November 2012-February 2013 May 2013-August 2013

Date % of Increases

May 24 28

May 31 27

June 7 26

June 14 28

June 21 18

June 28 26

July 3 22

July 12 15

July 19 23

July 26 18

Aug 2 19

Aug 9 16

Aug 16 19

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Vehicle Adjustments 2011-2012

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Vehicle Adjustments 2012-2013

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Vehicle Adjustments 2012

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Vehicle Adjustments 2013

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Vehicle Adjustments 2012

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Vehicle Adjustments 2013

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Vehicle Adjustments 2011-2012

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Vehicle Adjustments 2012-2013

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Vehicle Adjustments 2013

7 above norm

5 below 1.0%

7/1/13 to 8/1/13

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August 2013 trending - Cars

Cars: Better than trucks past 3 weeks Greater declines 8/2 to 8/16 for 6 of 10 segments

Average decline: -.41%Average increase: +.06%

Increasing segments: mostly upper end vehiclesNLCPLCPSCFSCYear ago average car change greater overall:

-$63 in 2012 and -$57 current change

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August 2013 trending - Trucks

Trucks: larger overall declines than cars but more consistent

CPT, MPT, & FPT: better retention segments

Averaged -$19 or -.15%

Biggest trend change: CSU increased 6 of 7 weeks then most current 3 week avg change of -$103

Minivans greater declines during August

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Where is the Used Market Going?

New sales continue to prosper. Supports more used.

At 15.5 to 15.6M creates 9.3 million trade-ins

Prerecession sales of 16.5M created 9.9M trades

Only 600,000 fewer used cars appearing C4C eliminated 750,000

11.4 years old. The older cars will seek a new $ point.

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Where is the Used Market Going?

Termed very rational at this time

Increasing used inventory volume

Less aggressive bidding: physical and online auction venues

Gas prices

Last 3 weeks trucks softer than cars

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Hybrid/Electric Demand

2012: Only 2.0 - 2.7% penetration

2013: Growing to 3.0 – 3.38% due to more players

CAFÉ 2015 & 2025

More players 2009: 20 hybrid vehicles* 2013: 45 hybrid vehicles, 13 electric vehicles and 1 NGV*

Held back by sub $4.00 gas

How much of a game changer will $5 be?

*Source: hybridcars.com

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Just call or emailRicky Beggs VP, Managing Editor

770.533.5221Rbeggs@BlackBookUSA.com

Tim West, VP, North American Auction Director770.533.5230

Twest@BlackBookUSA.com

Questions?