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“Multi-functional Mesoscale Observing Networks in Support of Integrated Forecasting Systems”
A Report on a USWRP WorkshopOrganized by:
Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma Walt Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc.Tom Schlatter, NOAA/OAR/FSL & CIRES
Presentation to: WSN05Toulouse, France
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 2
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 3
Workshop Goals
Develop a roadmap that leads to designing, testing and implementing integrated mesoscale observing-forecasting systems that:
– yield improved mesoscale forecasts
– utilize optimal observing system configurations
– serve multiple applications
– recognize the capabilities, interests and resources
of the public, private and academic sectors
Explore appropriate business models that will support and enable these systems
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 4
Workshop Factoids
Private Sector
Public Sector
TOTAL PARTICIPANTS
Academia and NCAR
Domestic Int’l. Total
37 4 41
49 3 52
25 4 29
111 11 122
Nowcasting -- Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS (now
U.No.Florida) Jim Wilson, NCAR
Modeling and Data Assimilation -- Steve Koch, NOAA/OAR Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University
Test Beds -- Marty Ralph, NOAA/OAR Dave Jorgensen, NOAA/OAR
Implementation -- Joe Friday, University of Oklahoma (ret.) Maria Pirone, AER, Inc.
Working Group Leaders:
Dates:8-10 Dec. 2005
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 5
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 6
Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations:Scope
What is the optimal mix of observations at the meso-, storm- and urban scales?
Examples of mesoscale forecast applications requiring improved observing capabilities include:
severe weather systems in both cold and warm seasons; air quality and chemical emergency response; aviation, marine and surface transportation; and hydrology and more.
Modelers should be involved in the observing network decision process by designing observing system experiments to determine:
the most important variables to measure; the minimum spacing and resolution requirements (network design); adaptive and targeted sampling strategies; and data assimilation techniques to effectively use these new measurements.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 7
Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations: Remedy Deficiencies in Current Observational Networks
Most desirable additional measurements: Lower tropospheric measurements:
– Mass, winds, moisture fields (3D) ~10 km horizontal; ~200 m vertical; 1-3 hrs– PBL turbulent fluxes, PBL heights– Turbulent flow and stability ~2 km; 15 min– Aerosols, chemical tracers, emissions data
Quantitative precipitation estimate:– Better accuracy, good and consistent quality control
Upper tropospheric measurements:– State variable measurements at 100 km spacing (0.5 km vertical), 1-3 hours– improved winds from satellite and regional aircraft – vertical profiling of state variables and hydrometeors in cloudy regions– increased vertical resolution from satellite– ozone profiling; – tropopause topology
Land surface properties: – Soil moisture and temperature profiles, snow cover and depth, SST, vegetation type/state updated daily
Radiative transfer inputs: – Ozone, CO2, water vapor, clouds
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 8
Modeling & Data Assimilation: Overarching Recommendations
It may be more cost effective to sample only the boundary layer with denser coverage than to similarly enhance observations in the upper troposphere for improving mesoscale analysis and prediction.
It may be cost effective to deploy intermittent, targeted observations at high resolution. Testbeds built around prototype observing networks need to be in place to provide real-data tests of proposed strategies
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 9
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
The Helsinki Testbed
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 10
Advanced Operational Nowcasting – Scope
Forecast Period: 0-6 hr
Forecast High Impact Events Winter weather: heavy precipitation (precipitation type – major
challenge), high winds, icing Summer weather: high winds, heavy rain, lightning, hail Air quality; dispersion of airborne toxins
Forecast Techniques Extrapolation Statistical Numerical (process models) Expert systems
Observing Systems - “All”
Important parameters to measure:
low-level moisture; detection of sharp gradients; boundary-layer height; strength of capping inversion; energy potentially available for convection
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 11
Nowcasting Recommendations
Top priority: Establish a national mesonetwork of surface stations. NOAA should take the lead to establish this network, and set standards for
data quality. Resolution needed: 5min and 10-25km (topography-specific). Basic measurements:
winds temperature humidity pressure precipitation amount and liquid equivalent
Application-specific options: precipitation type and size distribution soil temperature and moisture radiation fluxes ceiling height visibility
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 12
Nowcasting Recommendations
Priority Radar Recommendations: NWS should proceed without delay with the (approved) addition of dual
polarization capability to the WSR-88D network. Pursue the National Research Council Study recommendation to integrate other
radars into the WSR-88D network. Support studies to investigate means for improving boundary-layer coverage in
the future through the use of closely spaced X-band radars. NWS should pursue vigorously plans for a national expansion of the NOAA
Profiler Network with emphasis on boundary-layer observations. A research field project should be conducted that tests the utility of radar
refractivity measurements to improve nowcasting.
Other Priority Recommendations: Continue support for collaborative research projects aimed at using total lightning
data to improve severe weather warnings and nowcasts. Provide real-time near-surface water vapor fields to demonstrate how high-
resolution water vapor fields can improve nowcasting.
Establish testbeds for very short period forecasting (0-6 hr, nowcasting) of high impact weather.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 13
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
The Helsinki Testbed
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 14
Mesoscale Weather Forecasting -- Testbeds
Testbed Definition: “A working relationship in quasi-operational framework among forecasters, researchers, private-sector, and government agencies aimed at solving operational and practical regional problems with a strong connection to end-users.”
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 15
Testbed Recommendations
Testbeds are crucial in transitioning observing and modeling research into operations; a successful testbed must satisfy the following criteria:
Address the detection, monitoring, and prediction of regional phenomena of particular interest.
Engage experts in the phenomena of interest. Involve stakeholders in planning, operation, and evaluation of the
testbeds. Define expected outcomes, including transition to operations,
strategies for achieving them, and measures of success. Provide special observing networks (and people,
communications, and databases) needed for pilot studies and research
Provide resources for the generation and delivery of experimental products based upon these observations.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 17
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 18
Mesoscale Observing Programs Are Proliferating: How can we build on them?
x
•Mesowest •ARM CART• Oklahoma Mesonet• Texas Mesonet • AIRMAP
• Hi-res temperature forecasts for energy sector
North American Monsoon Experiment
• Land-falling storms (PACJET)• Air Quality• Fire Weather• Energy, Water, & Air Quality Issues
Coastal Storms
Coastal Storms
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 19
Helsinki Testbed 2005-2006
Mesoscale weather research Forecast and dispersion models: development and verification Observing systems and strategies: test and design Information systems and technology integration End-user product development and demonstration Data distribution for public and research community
Observing Facilities (preliminary)
1 dual-pol Doppler radar
4 C-band Doppler radars
101 surface wx stations*
191 road weather stations
42 two-level AWS masts
3 shipboard weather stations
11 backscatter lidars
1 UHF wind profiler
3 RAOB sounding stations
34 precipitation sites (part of 101)*
satellite obs. (GS and PO)
COSMIC RI soundings
EUCOS operational network
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 20
Beijing Observational Network Development Plan (2006-08)
150
km
Source: CMA, July 2003
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 21
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 22
Implementation of Integrated Mesoscale Observing-Forecasting Systems
Focus: Explore the potential for forming a consortium of public-private-academic partners to implement a national mesoscale observing network based on the needs of the user communities, including:
Modeling communityGeneral publicCommercial markets
Drivers: What are the major drivers of partnerships for mesoscale observing networks?
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 23
Implementation Recommendations:
A partnership arrangement was proposed for creation of consortia to develop, maintain and support regional mesoscale networks or even a composite national network.
The proposed network(s) would consist of a mix of privately owned measurement systems, publicly owned systems and newly acquired systems supplied by the consortia.
Each consortium collects and quality-controls the data, and supports the real-time dissemination of data and information products (e.g. analyses and forecasts).
Consortium members share rights, costs and revenues according to a “participation formula” (tbd)
Typical member roles: The public sector members access the data for the public good; i.e. public safety. The private-sector consortium members (and possibly academic partners) use the
data to create and sell various value-added products. Academia and non-profit research centers have access to the data for educational
and research purposes.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 24
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 25
Four Overarching Recommendations
Adopt the testbed concept as a priority mechanism for transitioning mesoscale observing and modeling advances from research to operations
Form a multi-sector “tiger team” to develop a functional design for a working testbed, and recommend one or more testbeds for the most pressing unmet requirements.
Develop alliances among public agencies who have complementary mesoscale needs (e.g. NOAA/NWS; Dept. of Homeland Security; EPA; DoD) to leverage resources and minimize costs.
Develop partnerships among the public, academic and private sectors that will facilitate the establishment and ongoing support of mesoscale testbeds and, subsequently, operational mesoscale observing-forecasting enterprises
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