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© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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Redistricting AndThe 2012 Election
Bernadette BuddeSenior Vice President, Political Analysis
Michael DavisVice President, Political Programs
July 13, 2011
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
BAB’S PRINCIPLES• It never turns out exactly as the party operatives think• Ten years is a very long time (3 presidential elections)• This version feels less partisan than ‘70/’80/’90/2000• Incumbents serve in current districts (decide on your grassroots
strategy)• Incumbents run in new districts (decide on your PAC strategy)• Demographic reality outweighs lines• None of this makes the issues go away
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
BAB’S TERMINOLOGY• Merged pairs
• Two incumbents running against each other• In primary: example, LA-3 Boustany (R) and Landry (R) – eliminates one seat for the
party regardless of primary winner• In general: example, IA-3 Boswell (D) and Latham (R) – eliminates one seat for the party
losing the general election
• Seats without incumbents where a freshman will be elected• Consequences of redistricting
Added seat: example, TX gains four seats Redistricted hole: example, “gaps” where an incumbent could have run but due to
district realignment decides not to run; usually occurs in states losing seats (such as IL) or not gaining seats (such as CA)
• Traditional open seats Incumbent lost in primary to a challenger Incumbent runs for another office: example IN-6 Pence (R) Incumbent not seeking reelection: example OK-2 Boren (D)
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
BAB’S TERMINOLOGY (cont.)• Don’t make yourself crazy• If you don’t keep track yourself, find a source you feel is
reliable and stick with that source; every pundit will label and then tally in a slightly different way.
• In the end, there are only 435 districts. If your list of plus/minus doesn’t add up to 435, the list is wrong.
• We don’t know the partisan impact of redistricting until we know the outcome of all general elections
– Easiest way to get House to add back up to 435 is to count victories for one party as they occur
– Tabulate the number of seats gained or lost for one party with a baseline of where each party began going into election night
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
Hispanic Voters& Why The GOP Is In Trouble
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRU.S. POPULATION GROWTH, 2005-2010
2010 2005 # Growth % Growth
White
223,553,265 215,333,394 8,219,871 3.8%
Hispanic
50,477,594 41,870,703 8,606,891 20.6%
Black
38,929,319 34,962,569 3,966,750 11.3%
Asian
14,674,252 12,471,815 2,202,437 17.7%
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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HISPANIC % OF POPULATION,UNDER 18
RANK STATE% OF POP. UNDER 18
THAT IS HISPANIC1New Mexico 58.2%2California 51.2%3Texas 48.3%4Arizona 43.2%5Nevada 39.4%6Colorado 30.5%7Florida 27.6%8Illinois 23.1%9New York 22.5%
10New Jersey 22.3%
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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FOR GOP TO WIN WHITE HOUSE IN 2012, THE GOP NEEDS TO WIN THE
FOLLOWING STATES(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,
OBAMA WIN %)
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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TEXAS GOES DEMOCRAT IN 2020
(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,OBAMA WIN %)
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
EXPECTED PARTISAN CHANGE-3 REP / +6 DEM (As of July 13, 2011)
STATE (REAPPORTIONMENT CHANGE) REP CHANGE DEM CHANGE
COMPLETED STATES
Arkansas - -Illinois (-1) -5 +4Indiana +1 -1Iowa (-1) - -1Louisiana (-1) -1 -Missouri (-1) - -1Nebraska - -Oklahoma - -
NOT
YET COMPLET
E
California -4 +4Georgia (+1) +2 -1Massachusetts (-1) - -1Michigan (-1) - -1Nevada (+1) - +1Texas (+4) +2 +2South Carolina (+1) +1 -Utah (+1) +1 -Washington (+1) - +1
TOO EARLY
Arizona (+1)Florida (+2)New Jersey (-1)New York (-2)Ohio (-2)Pennsylvania (-1)
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRREDISTRICTING TIMELINESTATE REDISTRICTING STATUS MAP DEADLINE + VRA
(60 DAYS)2011
LEGIS. SESSIONFILING
DEADLINEAlabama Submitted to DOJ VRA State Apr 6, 2012Alaska At Large District Apr 6, 2012Arizona Redistricting Commission None VRA State N/A May 30, 2012Arkansas Completed Mar 8, 2012California Redistricting Commission VRA Counties N/A Mar 9, 2012Colorado Courts Will Decide Apr 13, 2012Connecticut None Sine Die June 15, 2012Delaware At Large District July 10, 2012Florida None VRA Counties Sine Die May 4, 2012Georgia None Sine Die June 29, 2012Hawaii Redistricting Commission N/A June 5, 2012Idaho Redistricting Commission N/A Mar 9, 2012Illinois Completed Dec 5, 2011Indiana Completed Feb 24, 2012Iowa Completed Mar 16, 2012Kansas None Sine Die June 10, 2012Kentucky None Sine Die Jan 31, 2012Louisiana Completed DOJ Aug 17, 2012Maine Mar 31, 2012 Sine Die Mar 15, 2012Maryland None Sine Die Dec 5, 2011Massachusetts None In Session May 29, 2012Michigan Needs GOV Signature VRA Townships May 12, 2012Minnesota Courts Will Decide June 5, 2012Mississippi Dec 4, 2011 VRA State Sine Die Mar 1, 2012Missouri Completed Mar 27, 2012
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRREDISTRICTING TIMELINESTATE REDISTRICTING STATUS MAP DEADLINE + VRA
(60 DAYS)2011
LEGIS. SESSIONFILING
DEADLINEMontana At Large District Mar 12, 2012Nebraska Completed Mar 1, 2012Nevada Courts Will Decide Mar 16, 2012New Hampshire None VRA Townships Sine Die Jun 15, 2012New Jersey Redistricting Commission Jan 17, 2012 N/A Apr 10, 2012New Mexico None Sine Die Feb 14, 2012New York Nov 1, 2012 VRA Counties Jul 12, 2012North Carolina Nov 1, 2011 VRA Counties Sine Die Feb 1, 2012North Dakota At Large District Apr 13, 2012Ohio None In Session Dec 7, 2012Oklahoma Completed June 6, 2012Oregon Needs GOV Signature June 6, 2012Pennsylvania None In Session Feb 14, 2012Rhode Island None Sine Die June 27, 2012South Carolina None VRA State Sine Die Mar 30, 2012South Dakota At Large District Mar 27, 2012Tennessee None Sine Die Apr 5, 2012Texas Needs GOV Signature VRA State Jan 2, 2012Utah Mar 8, 2012 Sine Die Mar 16, 2012Vermont At Large District May 31, 2012Virginia Jan 1, 2012 VRA Counties Special Session Mar 29, 2012Washington Redistricting Commission Jan 1, 2012 N/A June 8, 2012West Virginia None Sine Die Jan 28, 2012Wisconsin None Special Session July 29, 2012Wyoming At Large District June 1, 2012
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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ARKANSAS
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD - 2001 AR CD MAP NEW - 2011 AR CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRARKANSAS (3-1 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Rick Crawford REP02 Tim Griffin REP 03 Steve Womack REP04 Mike Ross DEM
PARTISAN CHANGE NONE
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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ILLINOIS
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 CD MAP NEW – 2011 CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRILLINOIS (11-8 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Bobby Rush DEM Bobby Rush02 Jesse Jackson, Jr. DEM Jesse Jackson, Jr.03 Daniel Lipinski DEM Daniel Lipinski04 Luis Gutierrez DEM Luis Gutierrez05 Mike Quigley DEM Quigley & Biggert ? DEM hold06 Peter Roskam REP Roskam & Biggert 2 REP Incumbents07 Danny Davis DEM Danny Davis08 Joseph Walsh REP DEM pickup09 Jan Schakowsky DEM Jan Schakowsky10 Bob Dold REP Dold & Walsh ? Lean DEM pickup11 Adam Kinzinger REP DEM pickup12 Jerry Costello DEM Jerry Costello13 Judy Biggert REP Retirement? Lean DEM14 Randy Hultgren REP Walsh & Hultgren 2 REP Incumbents ?15 Tim Johnson REP Johnson & Shimkus Retirement? 16 Donald Manzullo REP Kinzinger & Johnson ? 2 REP Incumbents ?17 Bobby Schilling REP Schilling & Manzullo Competitive18 Aaron Schock REP Shock & Johnson ? Shock moves here19 John Shimkus REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment
PARTISAN CHANGE -5 REP / +4DEM
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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INDIANA
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 IN CD MAP NEW - 2011 IN CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRINDIANA (6-3 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Peter Visclosky DEM Peter Visclosky02 Joe Donnelly DEM Joe Donnelly - OPEN Competitive/Lean REP03 Marlin Stutzman REP Marlin Stutzman04 Todd Rokita REP Todd Rokita Rokita moves here05 Dan Burton REP Dan Burton06 Mike Pence REP Mike Pence - OPEN07 Andre Carson DEM Andre Carson08 Larry Bucshon REP Larry Bucshon09 Todd Young R EP Todd Young
PARTISAN CHANGE +1 REP / -1 DEM
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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IOWA
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 IA CD MAP NEW – 2011 IA CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRIOWA (3-2 DEM)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Bruce Braley DEM Bruce Braley02 Dave Loebsack DEM Dave Loebsack Loebsack moves here03 Leonard Boswell DEM Boswell & Latham Competitive04 Tom Latham REP Steve King Vs. Christie Vilsack05 Steve King REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment
PARTISAN CHANGE NONE TO+1 REP / -1 DEM
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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LOUISIANA
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 LA CD MAP NEW – 2011 LA CD MAP
LA-03 MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRLOUISIANA (6-1 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Steve Scalise REP Steve Scalise02 Cedric Richmond DEM Cedric Richmond03 Jeff Landry REP Landry & Boustany Competitive Primary04 John Fleming REP John Fleming05 Rodney Alexander REP Rodney Alexander06 Bill Cassidy REP Bill Cassidy07 Charles Boustany Jr. REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment
PARTISAN CHANGE 0 REP / -1 DEM
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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MISSOURI
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 MO CD MAP NEW – 2011 MO CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRMISSOURI (6-3 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Lacy Clay, Jr. DEM Lacy Clay, Jr.02 Todd Akin REP Carnahan ? Akin running for
U.S. Senate03 Russ Carnahan DEM Luetkemeyer &
Carnahan04 Vicky Hartzler REP Vicky Hartzler05 Emanuel Cleaver DEM Emanuel Cleaver06 Sam Graves, Jr. REP Sam Graves, Jr.07 Billy Long REP Billy Long08 Jo Ann Emerson REP Jo Ann Emerson09 Blaine Luetkemeyer REP Lost Due To Reapportionment
PARTISAN CHANGE 0 REP / -1 DEM
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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NEBRASKA
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 NE CD MAP
NEW – 2011 NE CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelRNEBRASKA (3-0 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Jeff Fortenberry REP Jeff Fortenberry02 Lee Terry REP Lee Terry03 Adrian Smith REP Adrian Smith
PARTISAN CHANGE NONE
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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OKLAHOMA
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
OLD – 2001 OK CD MAP
NEW – 2011 OK CD MAP
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
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@DavisMichaelROKLAHOMA (4-1 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 John Sullivan REP John Sullivan02 Dan Boren DEM Dan Boren03 Frank Lucas REP Frank Lucas04 Tom Cole REP Tom Cole05 James Lankford REP James Lankford
PARTISAN CHANGE NONE
© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.
THANK YOU!
Michael R. Davis, IOMVice President, Political ProgramsBIPAC(202) 776-7479mdavis@bipac.org
Follow us at: /BIPAC @BIPAC @DavisMichaelRBlog – FightsForJobs.com
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