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Dr Dostal on the Ideal Future
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World Future Society ConferenceThe role of the ideal future
and how to get there
© Dr Elisabeth Dostal7 May 2010
we know what caused the finance crisis,but we don’t know what to do about it(G-20 Summit, March 2009)
we can also replace “finance crisis” with
climate change,poverty,
challenge
©
poverty, crime, terrorism, unemployment, population explosion, etc.
summary of my talk
we need:
(1) a worldview that can deal with complexitysystems thinking
(2) change our future course
©
(2) change our future courseideal future designs
(1) new thinking about governancestakeholder governance
(1) changing our worldview
©
fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution
the problem does not contain the solution
“more of the same” reinforces the problem
problems have multiple causes
©
problems have multiple causes
problems and cofactors
©
poverty
fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution
problems have multiple causes
issues are interrelated
interrelating problems make each other worse
©
interrelating problems make each other worse
issues are interrelated
poverty
health crisis
climatechange
populationexplosion
educationcrisis
©
crisis
unemploy-ment
energyshortage
violence
inadequateinfrastructure
fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution
problems have multiple causes
issues are interrelated
interrelating problems make each other worse interrelating problems make each other worse
solutions in one area can give rise to problems inanother
vicious circles
solutions in one area can create problems in another
e.g. solving poverty through more economic developmentreinforces climate change (or energy shortages, etc.)
poverty
©
economicdevelopment
climatechange
fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution
problems have multiple causes
issues are interrelated
the current situation has momentum the current situation has momentum
it tends to get worse over time
we don’t notice gradual deterioration
• momentum• forecasting• current future scenarios• current logic• gradual deterioration
current future
©
currentsituation current
futures
time
(2) how do we change our future course?
©
systems have a conceptual and physical reality
conceptual reality in-formsphysical reality
if the current situation isundesirable, it indicates thatthere is need for changingconceptual reality (i.e. redesign)
in-forms
conceptualreality
©
redesigning its conceptual realitytrans-forms the system
indicates
physicalreality
role of the ideal future
• redesign conceptual reality as an ideal future• the ideal future represents a different (higher order) logic• one can backcast strategies from the ideal future• acting according to the new strategies brings about a
gradual improvement of the system towards new andmore desirable outcomes
• problems get dissolved idealfuture
©
• problems get dissolved
forecasting
backcasting
future
currentsituation current
futures
current versus ideal future
the future is created by default or design
default: current futuredesign: ideal future
©
design: ideal future
either way we are responsible for our future
how do we redesign the future?
summary:
• choose a design framework
• analyse the current situation
• create an ideal design
generate alignment around the design
©
• generate alignment around the design
• make implementation plan
• implement
• monitor results
planet
society
institution
co-factors
framework: multiple levels
©
group
individual
cell
molecule
institution
organisation
ph
ysio
log
ical
tech
no
log
ical
po
litic
al
eco
no
mic
cult
ura
l
eco
log
ical
psy
cho
log
ical
ph
ysic
al
planet
international society
national society X
X
framework: multiple levels and dimension
©
organisation
group
individual
celletc.
national society
institution
X
X X
X
X
analyse the current situation and create an ideal design
idealfuture
multi-level and multi-dimensional design
©
currentsituation
currentfutures
multi-level and multi-dimensional analysis
aligning stakeholders around the design
aligning stakeholdersinvolves designiterationsSt 1
St 2
St 3
St 8
St 9
©
IDEAL DESIGNSt 3
St 4
St 5
St 6
St 7St 10
St 11
St 12
implementation plan
idealfuture
3
12
Outcomes Based Education1. redesign curriculum2. new schoolbooks3. train teachers4. administer system5. etc.
©
time
currentsituation
currentfutures
3
Primary Health Care1. build clinics2. staff clinics3. equip clinics4. administer system5. etc.
strategic plan: cascading aims in time
idealfuture
©
currentsituation current
futures
(3) who should redesign the future andimplement the designed strategy?
©
current governancegovernment
cabinet
©
governmentdepartment
function specific strategy
NGOs
private sector
NGOs
private sector
NGOs
private sector
governmentdepartment
governmentdepartment
function specific strategy function specific strategy
transversal (multi-functional) strategic design
housing
health
education
©
environment
energyemployment
educationstrategy
stakeholder governancegovernment
cabinet
Ideal Design of aTransversal Issue
©function specific strategy
NGOs
private sector
governmentdepartment
NGOs
private sector
governmentdepartment
NGOs
private sector
governmentdepartment
transversal / cooperative strategy
implement the plans
each stakeholder implements the strategies it isresponsible for
the sum total of even seemingly insignificantstrategies dissolves the problems associatedwith the transversal issue
©
with the transversal issue
homework
what is your contribution
(from your functional perspective)
to the dissolving of our collective problems?
©
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