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Roy Kienitz, transportation policy trends in US and implications for China.
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Roy Kienitz Email: roy@roykienitz.com
June 2012
New Trends and
Implications For China
TRANSPORTATION IN THE UNITED STATES
MOST PEOPLE’S IDEA OF AMERICA: House in the suburbs and a car
WHEN EVERYONE LIVES THIS WAY IT TAKES UP A LOT OF SPACE
AND ONE CAR IS NOT ENOUGH
THE RESULT: MORE CARS PER HOUSEHOLD AND MORE DRIVING PER PERSON
WHAT BEGAN AS A CHOICE BECAME A NECESSITY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)
Average of 2.5%
Growth Per Year
ONE RESULT OF BUILDING THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM
Construction: 45 Years (1956-2001) Length: 47,000 miles (75,000 km) Cost: $500 billion (2010 Dollars)
Rural Highways – “Inter-State”
50 Percent of Funds
Urban Highways
50 Percent of Funds
FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS DID NOT CHANGE FOR ALMOST 30 YEARS
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)
AIRPORT CONSTRUCTION HELPED AIR TRAVEL GROW
27,000 FLIGHTS PER DAY
A GROWING PROBLEM: Return on investment for spending on surface
transportation has been declining -- law of diminishing returns
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)
No growth 2004 to 2012 – 8 Years
Decline Began in 2007, Before Financial Crisis of 2008-09
Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011
Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011
US GDP grew 8 percent during this period while driving per person fell 6 percent
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
GDP (2005 Dollars)
Miles Driven
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DRIVING, 1999 - 2011 (GDP in constant 2005 Dollars, VMT in miles driven, 1999 = 100)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ratio of Growth in GDP to Growth in Driving (5-Year Average) 1985 - 2008
UNTIL 2004 A GROWING ECONOMY = MORE DRIVING NOW THE ECONOMY CAN GROW WITHOUT MORE DRIVING
MORE BICYCLE LANES ARE BEING BUILT Miles of Protected Bikeway Per 100,000 Residents,
9 U.S. Cities, 2000 and 2010
Average Increase of 74% Over 10 Years In These 9 Cities
FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2011 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)
HIGH SPEED RAIL INVESTMENT BEGAN IN 2009
IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 1: COST
• Transportation is a cost of doing business – cheaper is better
• Transportation policy emphasizing public transportation has high cost for government but low cost for families.
• Transportation policy emphasizing the car has high cost for both government and families
• A system build around public transportation has lower total costs
• Difference can be as much as 8% of GDP
IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 2: CITY PLANNING, LARGE SCALE • Public transportation is very effective in serving a
well-planned city • This requires directing new jobs and housing to
land served by Metro lines • Un-coordinated urban development is very hard to
serve with even the best public transportation system
• City must learn to say no to development that cannot be served by public transportation
• Mixing uses is key – jobs and housing in separate areas requires more trips and longer trips
IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 3: CITY PLANNING: SMALL SCALE
• People using public transportation must get to and from stations -- walking and cycling.
• For public transportation to work the city must be built for walking and cycling
• Super-blocks are the worst kind of design for walking and cycling
• Small things add up: parking policy, bike sharing, car sharing, traffic signal priority for buses
IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 4: THE POWER OF THE BUS • Beijing (other Chinese cities?) have wide streets • Changan Jie – 14 lanes? • There is room to create bus-only lanes, the key to good
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) • One expressway lane dedicated to buses in the peak hour
has similar theoretical capacity as a new metro – (800 buses per hour, 65 people per bus = 52,000 people per hour
for BRT; Metro capacity can reach 60,000 per hour)
• Cost is MUCH lower, can be implemented much more quickly
• Single BRT lines do not meet their potential until they are part of a connected network
CONCLUSIONS
• Recent US experience shows that the economy can grow even as car use falls
• Cities do not need to fear measures to reduce car use if they do it thoughtfully
• Solving transportation in mega-cities is not possible without addressing land use and property development
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