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TRADING RISKS
How startups and multinationals should recalibrate their relationships after years of fumbling around and why building no-bullshit synergies matter more than ever.
PHILIPPE MÉDA @icopilots
TRADING RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS3. CHEATING THE CASINO
TRADING RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS3. CHEATING THE CASINO
I have known adventures, seen places you people will never see, I've been Offworld and back...frontiers! I've stood on the back deck of a blinker bound for the Plutition Camps with sweat in my eyes watching the stars fight on the shoulder of Orion. I've felt wind in my hair, riding test boats off the black galaxies and seen an attack fleet burn like a match and disappear. I've seen it...felt it!
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.
RISK IS A SUNK COST
Built to explore a specific risk ✔ Burn resources faster than normal ✔ Dies after for 2.8 years ✔
RISK IS A SUNK COST
Invention means the conception of a novelty.
Instead innovation is defined by the introduction of the invention in the social environment.
The market is a specific form of social organization.
Joseph SCHUMPETER
RISK IS A SUNK COST
How do we rebuild urban on-demand mobility without legacy platforms?
RISK IS A SUNK COST
How do we rebuild urban on-demand mobility without legacy platforms?
RISK IS A SUNK COST
98% of the industry
is complacent
RISK IS A SUNK COST
1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs 5-10 Yrs
Level of UNCERTAINTY
NOWcomplex chaotic
RISK IS A SUNK COST
NOW 1-3 Yrscomplex
Uberization AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).
5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrschaotic
RISK IS A SUNK COST
NOW 1-3 Yrscomplex
Uberization AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).
Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrschaotic
RISK IS A SUNK COST
NOW 1-3 Yrscomplex
Uberization AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).
Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrschaotic
Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid »
While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers.
RISK IS A SUNK COST
NOW 1-3 Yrs
3-5 Yrschaotic
complex
Uberization AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).
Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
Wechatization AKA « seems China did wake up» As Westerners we still live in a world where China is an emerging country and the factory of the rest of the world… that was 20 yrs ago.
Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid »
While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers.
5-10 Yrs
RISK IS A SUNK COST
1-3 Yrs
3-5 Yrschaotic
complex
Uberization AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).
Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
Wechatization AKA « seems China did wake up» As Westerners we still live in a world where China is an emerging country and the factory of the rest of the world… that was 20 yrs ago.
Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid »
While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers.
5-10 Yrs
NOW
RISK IS A SUNK COST
RISK IS A SUNK COSTRISK IS A SUNK COST
IoT Market worth
$661.74 Billion by 2021
RISK IS A SUNK COST
RISK The FUTURE is a sunk cost
RISK IS A SUNK COST
RISK IS A SUNK COST
= We probably won’t survive this…
TRADING RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST
3. CHEATING THE CASINO2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN PROCESS-DRIVENCUSTOMER-DRIVEN
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
PROCESS-DRIVEN
YOUR CULTURAL BLINDSPOT
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
Startups working on new
customers paradigms.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
Startups working on
future value propositions .
SUNK COSTS
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
Startups working on
future value propositions .
Peugeot will work with Boston-based
nuTonomy on a project involving self-driving
cars in Singapore.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
Your blindspot is your FOCUS
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
= Right, we’re « just » going to subcontract risk…
TRADING RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST
3. CHEATING THE CASINO2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
CHEATING THE CASINO
TECH MATURITY
NOW
MARKET READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
RUPTURE 0.001%
Black Swans
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
42
INCREMENTAL 80%
Industry
PROCESS-DRIVEN
TECH MATURITY
NOW
MARKET READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
INCREMENTAL 80%
Industry
CHEATING THE CASINO
PROCESS-DRIVEN
TECH MATURITY
NOW
MARKET READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
INCREMENTAL 80%
Industry
YOUR CULTURAL
BLINDSPOT
CHEATING THE CASINO
TECH MATURITY
NOW
MARKET READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
42
17
13
PROCESS-DRIVEN
48INCREMENTAL
80% Industry
120 ≃Projects
CHEATING THE CASINO
CHEATING THE CASINO
5
CHEATING THE CASINO
5
100
CHEATING THE CASINO
TRADING RISKS
Business ROI Brand ROI How more visible are you on the market, how do you build better trust and customer intimacy…
Market ROI How much better do you understand your current customers or foresee new trends.
Alignment ROI How well do you exchange best practices internally,how do you get a better cross-team alignment, …
Culture ROI How much agility and reactivity have been increased, how many teams have a better understanding of your market, ...
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