Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho

Return Over Influence

Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case

Web Analytics AssociationSão Paulo, Brazil, October 2009

marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho

Overview

• Social Networks on the Internet

• Digital Social Networks in Brazil

• The case for advertising– Brands and Social Capital

• Old AND New Metrics

• Debate

marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu

marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu

Social Networks on the Internet

Sociable Media, MIT Media Lab

Social Networks are older than the Internet…

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But the web amplify their reach

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France

4m

Italy

3.4m

Turkey

2m Pakistan0.97m

Czech

0.6m

MEXICO

4.1m

China43m

South Korea9.7m

Taiwan

4.2m

Philippines2.4m

BRAZIL

7.6m

Spain

4.5m

India

8.7m

Japan14m

Hong

Kong1m

USA

26.4m

CANADA

1.6m

UK

4.5m

Greece

0.3m

Australia1m

Germany

5.2m Romania

0.5m

Denmark0.3m

Poland1.1m

Netherlands

1.6m

Switzerland0.5m Austria

0.4m

Hungary0.1m

Russia

2.4m

% Write their own blog

60%+

40% -60%

30%-40%

<30%

Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008

Italy

3.9m

Germany

8.2m

Switzerland0.9m

USA

43mSpain

4.7m

France

4.2m

Japan12.4m

Czech0.8m

Denmark0.6m

Austria0.6m

Greece

0.5m

Turkey3.3m

China39m

India

11.7m

South Korea9.4m

Romania1.4m

Netherlands

3.7m

CANADA4.2m

UK

11m

Australia2.6m

Hong Kong

1m

MEXICO

5.1m

BRAZIL

11.4m

Pakistan1.8m

Poland2.7m

Taiwan

3.9m

Philippines

3m

Hungary1m

Russia

6.1m

% joined a

social network

70%+

60% -69%

50%-59%

<49%

Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008

Revista Época, 10/3/2008

Digital Social Networks in Brazil

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Brazil is the leading country in time spent on the internet

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Member Communities usage

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Most Popular Categories - BR

Source: IBOPE

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11,8 8,0

3,7

1,7

3,5

3,5

3,6

Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte

Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US

Q - What does it mean for advertising? A – First, that a costumer can generate in a

week more GRPs than you can buy in a year…

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…and second, this can cost you a lot of money

Source: Wired

… even if you are a bar in São Paulo

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Source: Trust Barometer, Edelman, 2008

Radio

NP

Source: BBC

Digital social networks will change the way that we relate to the news, brands and products

It is not the end of “Broadcast”, but it is the birth of “Socialcast”

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Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University

The death of the “opinion leader” or the birth of the “opinion climate”?

The real value generated by brandsand the consumer > facts

Consumers recognize (and search for) the trophies related to theirvalues and brands (media, websites, social networks, etc)

And happily “socialcast” thesevalues to their own networks

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Source: Forrester Research, 2009.

Trust

Communication

Expertise

SocialCapital

Benefits

EmotionalSatisfaction1. Altruistic2. Competitive

Operational

Financial (reduction of Transaction costs)

Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000

SocialCurrency

A new type of market for Brands: Social Capital and Social Currency The trade for Facts

Broadcast Metrics can be applied to a Socialcast world?

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Yes, but with careQuantitative Metrics - IAB

• Exposition (Broadcast)• Visitors / Unique Visitors• Visits• Time Spent

• Interactions (Socialcast)• Uploads / Downloads• Messages• Comments / Answers / Votes• Friends• Incoming Links• Members

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Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in beta…(ESPM)

• Relevancy– Number of relevant posts / number of total posts

• Dialogue extension and depth– First comment / Last comment (recency)

• Favorability– (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total

posts

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What is an opinion to a machine?

It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things:

Oj = The thing in question (i.e product)

f jk = a feature of Oj

SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl

These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine

Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008

It is not old X new metrics, but old AND new

Advertising is moving from a world built around Cathedrals (Broadcast media consumption, tools and metrics)…

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… to a world ruled by the logic of the bazaar (even if the same owner has a lot of outlets)

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Socialcast “channels”

and we are just beginning

Return Over Influence

Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case

Web Analytics AssociationSão Paulo, Brazil, October 2009

marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho