Rohit Talwar- Global Business Trends Imex Frankfurt 24 05 12

Global Business Trends

Imex Frankfurt - May 24th 2012

Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research

www.fastfuture.com rohit@fastfuture.com Twitter @fastfuture

Contents

• Presentation p. 3

• About Fast Future p. 52

• Image Sources p. 62

Driving Future Growth

Macro

Trends

Business

Responses

Key

Behaviours

‘Future Proofed’ Organisations

Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel

4-10 Years

Creating

the Future

1-12 Months

Operational

Excellence

1-3 Years

Drive for

Growth

The World in 2022

Future Proofing the Business

Mastery Markets Models

Magic Management Mindset

Muscle

Message

Mastery

Mastery – Foresight and Insight

e.g. ‘Horizon Scanning’ and

Timeline Development by Sector

BCG’S 2011 Global Challengers

and Emeriti: Origin Countries 33

20

14

8 6

5 4

3 3 2 2

1 1 1 1 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: Boston Consulting Group, January 2011

Mastery - Service is the ‘Killer App’

New Analytics and a New Knowledge Infrastructure

Mastery – Data and Technology

Telephony • Voice

• Messaging

• SIM card

• Phonebook

• Ring Tones

• Security

Connectivity • Cellular

• Up to 14 bands

• WLAN/BT

• GPS

• NFC

• FM

Data/

Enterprise • 100Mbps

• Email

• IMS

• Browsing

• VPN

• PIM

• Ecommerce

• Payments

Software • Protocols

• Middleware

• Applications

• User Interface

• Minimize fragmentation

Multimedia • Camera 8-16M

• Camcorder

• 24M Color Display

• Memory (160GB)

• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out

• Games

(50-100M Tps)

• DRM

Convergence and Personalisation

Next Generation Interfaces

Mastery - Sustainability

Markets

Markets – Growth Poles 2 billion more people in 40 years –

Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

448 691

729

5231

4157

739

1030

344

585

Source : United Nations 2010 2050

Markets - Life Redefined

Lifespans are Increasing

Under 50’s have 90%

chance of living to 100.

Aubrey de Grey suggests

we could live to 500 or 1000

What are the health,

housing, consumption and

resource implications?

What kind of opportunities

will be created?

Markets –

Focus on Growth Industries

Rising Infrastructure Spending

• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)

• Annual spend:

– North America $180Bn

– Europe $205Bn

– Asia $400Bn

– Africa $10Bn

Green Buildings - $600Bn by 2015

Airport Expansion by 2020

China from ~150 to 244

India from ~100 to 150

Green Transport Revolution

Models - Multiple Streams and

Pre-emptive Solutions

Models - Continuous Innovation

E.g. Auctions

£3088 £8791.50 £81

Kickstarter.com

Models - Access vs. Ownership

Muscle

Muscle – Rapid Decision Making

Muscle – Speed of Execution

e.g. Ultra-Quick Construction

Muscle –

Locally Relevant and Connected

Embrace Networks and Associations

Message

Impact, Innovation and Ethics

Relevant Solutions - MarkaVIP

Scalable Innovation

Ethics - Being and Doing

Magic

Magic – First to Market

E.g. Next Gen Qantas Check-In

Magic – Ideas that Delight

E.g. Virtual Grocery Shopping –

Tesco South Korea

Magic – Unleash the Customer

e.g. Open Innovation

Magic – Basic Science E.g. Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Convergence

Unlocking the Value and Risk of Pure R&D, Patents and Licences

Magic -

Breakthrough

Innovation e.g.

3D Printing

$1Tn+ Market

Management

Management – Celebrate

Successes

Management -

Make Time and Space for Change

Management - Lead or Follow?

Management -

Tackling Complexity

• Customer Interface

• Process

• Organisation

• Information /

Systems

• Regulatory

• Human

Mindset

Mindset - 3 Horizon Thinking

• 12 Months

• 1-3 Years

• 4-10 Years

Mindset –

Broad Scans and Deep Dives

Mindset - Tolerant of Uncertainty

Encourage Experimentation

Mindset –

Curious, Sticky and Magnetic

Conclusions

• New Turbulent Era

• Future is a Journey

• The Door is Open

About Fast Future

Fast Future –

Core Services

• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of governments, investment funds, development agencies , companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations

• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios, technologies and new markets

• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments, emerging issues and technology advances

• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans

• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans

• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation

Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership

• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people,

trends and forces shaping the future

• Clients

– ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke

– Marks and Spencer

– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group

– Vancouver Airport Services

– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI

– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange,

O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG,

Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING,

Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank

– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore,

UK, US

– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San

Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens,

Slovenia, Copenhagen

– Convention Centres – Melbourne,

Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC

– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,

– Intercontinental

– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes

Hotels 2020 – Objectives

• Identify key drivers of change

for the globally branded hotel

sector over the next decade

• Examine the implications for:

Hotel strategy

Brand portfolio

Business models

Customer targeting

Innovation

• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for

the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors

• Multiple outputs Nov 2009 – December 2011

• Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations

Convention 2020

Rohit Talwar • Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic

innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on

5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10

Global Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic

consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,

technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,

environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De

Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,

ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,

OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,

Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations

and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,

Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email

rohit@fastfuture.com

• 50 key trends

• 100 emerging trends

• 10 major patterns of change

• Key challenges and choices for

leaders

• Strategic decision making framework

• Scenarios for 2012

• Key futures tools and techniques

• Published August 2008

• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95

• Email invoice request to

rohit@fastfuture.com

Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices

Our Services Bespoke research; Identification &

Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &

Shocks

Accelerated Scenario

Planning, Timelining &

Future Mapping

Identification of

Opportunities for

Innovation and Strategic

Investment Strategy Creation &

Development of

Implementation

Roadmaps

Design & Facilitation of

Innovation, Incubation

& Venturing

Programmes

Expert Consultations &

Futures Think Tanks

Personal Futuring for

Leaders and Leadership

Teams

Public Speaking, In-

Company Briefings,

Seminars and

Workshops

Example Projects • Public and private client research e.g. :

– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients

– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030

– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration

– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership

– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020

– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers

– Winning in India and China

– The Future of Human Resources

– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises

– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events

– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events

– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry

– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies

– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020

– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia

– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030

Example Clients

Image Sources

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