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Presentation at APM event Communicating risk across the project portfolio, 4th July 2013
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Jimmy Phillips – People Forum and Engagement Survey Results
Jim Morrison
Risk Balanced Portfolios
Portfolio Owners
Portfolio of projects
Annual budgets
Risk Analysis – A Single Project
Risk Registers
Project Plans
Cost Breakdown
“21% chance of delivering by ……”
“38% chance of staying under budget”
“90% chance of ROI being…”
Risk Analysis - Portfolios
Uncertain costs
Uncertain durations
50%
90%
10%Risk Based Portfolio Forecast
Scenario Modelling
Move project starts
Scenario Modelling
Move project startsCompress project schedules
Scenario Modelling
Move project startCompress project schedulesBalance Portfolio
Considerations
1. How much detail is enough?2. Bespoke software?3. When in project lifecycle?4. When in portfolio lifecycle?5. Correlation
6. (Unintended) consequences?7. Project outputs8. Linkage to portfolio value
delivery9. Iteration?
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