PMI Global Congress North America 2013 - Improving Focus and Predictability on Projects

Improving Focus and

Predictability with Critical Chain

Project Management

Session NA13BRL11

Joe Cooper

Allegient – Indianapolis, IN

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2

Topics covered

• Problems associated with poor project

performance

• Root causes of the problems

• Addressing the problems at their core

with Critical Chain solutions

3

Problems of poor

project performance

• Low team morale

• Missed delivery dates: Late projects

• Excessive project durations: Reduced

return on investment (ROI)

4

Low team morale

5

Root causes

• Low-trust environments

• Nonproductive multitasking

• Uncertainty in task estimates

– Student Syndrome

– Parkinson’s Law

• High amounts of work in progress

6

Multitasking example

Volunteer

needed

7

Multitasking example

1 A I

2 B II

3 C III

4 D IV

5 E V

6 F VI

7 G VII

8 H VIII

9 I IX

10 J X

8

Multitasking example:

observations

• Context switching creates a loss of

productivity, an increase in stress,

and a decrease in quality

• “Focus” allows most tasks (or

projects) to complete faster and with

better quality

9

Multitasking example:

observations

• Even the tasks (or projects) that

start later, finish earlier

• Time to Market and Return on

Investment improve significantly

10

Multitasking

Team Members: 1 1 1

P1: A B C D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

48 Weeks

A B C D E F G H I J 50 Weeks

A B C D E F G H I J 52 Weeks

$ $ $ $

“Any man who can drive safely while kissing

a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the

attention it deserves” –Albert Einstein

$ $ $

$ $ $ $ $ $

$ $ $ $ $

11

Focused execution

Team Members: 1 1 1

P1: D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

20 Weeks

D E F G H I J 28 Weeks

D E F G H I J 36 Weeks

$

B C A

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

B C A

B C A

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

12

Multitasking vs.

Focus comparison

Multitasking

Focus

“Focusing on everything is

synonymous with focusing on

nothing at all.” –Dr. Eli Goldratt

P1: A B C D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

48 Weeks

A B C D E F G H I J 50 Weeks

A B C D E F G H I J 52 Weeks

P1: D E F G H I J

P2:

P3:

20 Weeks

D E F G H I J 28 Weeks

D E F G H I J 36 Weeks

B C A

B C A

B C A

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Probability of task

duration

Pro

babili

ty

Time

10% confidence 50% confidence 95% confidence

2 days 5 days 12 days

.20

.40

.60

.80

1.0

“Prediction is very difficult,

especially if it’s about the

future.” –Nils Bohr

14

Student Syndrome

Planned Task

Effort

Time

“Never put off till tomorrow what

may be done the day after tomorrow

just as well.” –Mark Twain

15

Parkinson’s Law

• Work expands to fill the time allotted

– Reliable estimators

– Padding will be cut on next estimate

– Polishing the cannonball (deliverables)

“Work expands so as to fill the

time available for its completion.”

–Cyril Northcote Parkinson

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Parkinson’s Law

∴ Heavily padded task durations

become self-fulfilling prophecies even

when the work is completed “early”.

“Work expands so as to fill the

time available for its completion.”

–Cyril Northcote Parkinson

17

Critical Chain

unlocks a series of

new paradigms

• Based on the works of Taiichi Ohno,

father of the Toyota Production System

– Dr. Goldratt: Standing on the shoulders

of giants – white paper

“We can’t solve problems by using the

same kind of thinking we used when

we created them.” – Albert Einstein

18

Critical Chain

unlocks a series of

new paradigms

• Biggest waste on projects is padding

buried in tasks

– 50/50 task estimates eliminate the

hidden padding

“We can’t solve problems by using the

same kind of thinking we used when

we created them.” – Albert Einstein

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• Project buffer: When contingency is

aggregated, variability goes down –

Central Limit Theorem

“We can’t solve problems by using the

same kind of thinking we used when

we created them.” – Albert Einstein

Critical Chain

unlocks a series of

new paradigms

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• 25% reduction in project durations is

minimum to expect

• Project on-time delivery improves to 95%

• Creates an objective and transparent

leading indicator of project health

“We can’t solve problems by using the

same kind of thinking we used when

we created them.” – Albert Einstein

Critical Chain

unlocks a series of

new paradigms

21

Protecting the project

commitment

Hidden

Padding

Hidden

Padding

Hidden

Padding

Hidden

Padding

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Project Buffer Time

Saved

22

Buffer consumption chart B

uffer

consum

ed

23

Portfolio/Program buffer chart B

uffer

co

nsum

ed

.P1111

.P2222

.P3333

.P4444

.P5555

.P6666

P7777.

Project duration

24

The Critical Chain Way

• Aggressive and

achievable task

estimates – 50/50

• Focus until finished /

reduced multitasking

• It’s ok to be early, ok to

be late, just focus and

hand off the baton as

quickly as possible

25

The Critical Chain Way

• Mutual trust

• High team morale

• High speed,

quality, throughput

26

Thank you!

Joe Cooper

email: jcooper@Allegient.com

phone: 309-212-6305

: joecooper1

www.Allegient.com

:1joecooper