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Human brains are stupidIntuition, fallacies, paradoxes and biases
Why we have to be careful and the robots will win in the end anyway
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We can stop if you get bored
24 slides, 10 things that will mess with your mindPartly based on this talk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i-XjhGdCMU
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Quick fire: left or right is larger?
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2+4 1+3
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2+4 1+3
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6 letter words having "n" as 5th letter
6 letter words ending in "ing"
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6 letter words having "n" as 5th letter
6 letter words ending in "ing"
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Fishing rod on a bus● Luggage over 4ft isn't allowed on the bus● 5ft fishing rod
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Fishing rod on a bus● Luggage over 4ft isn't allowed on the bus● 5ft fishing rod
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Banzhaf power index● 3 stockholders: 49%, 49%, 2%● majority of 51% is needed● Who has the most power?
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Banzhaf power index● 3 stockholders: 49%, 49%, 2%● majority of 51% is needed● Who has the most power?
● Each stockholder has equal power - any 2 can make a majority
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Thinking 3 dimensionally● Sea level to mount everest (9000m) = 4 million pennies● What size box will they fit in?
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Thinking 3 dimensionally● Sea level to mount everest (9000m) = 4 million pennies● What size box will they fit in?
● 2m x 2m x 2m
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Thinking 3 dimensionally● all humans end to end = to moon and back 8 times● fit in Grand Canyon (446km long) in equal sized boxes
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Thinking 3 dimensionally● to moon and back 8 times = all humans end to end● fit in Grand Canyon (446 km long) in equal sized boxes
● 7m x 7m x 7m
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Bus race!● Bus does the 1st 1/2 of the route at 15mph● What speed should they do the other 1/2 to average 30mph overall?
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Bus race!● Bus does the 1st 1/2 of the route at 15mph● What speed should they do the other 1/2 to average 30mph overall?
● ∞
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Statistics!● Death rate in Navy in Spanish-American War in 1898 is 9/1000● Civilians 16/1000● Propaganda: Safer to be in Navy?!
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Statistics!● Death rate in Navy in Spanish-American War 1898 is 9/1000● Civilians 16/1000● Propaganda: Safer to be in Navy?!
● Cannot compare groups. Navy = young, healthy people
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Survivorship bias● WW2: add armour to bombers● Stats show most planes came back with damage from bullets on the wings● Conclusion: add thicker armour on the wings
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Survivorship bias● WW2: add armour to bombers● Stats show most planes came back with damage from bullets on the wings● Conclusion: add thicker armour on the wings
● No!● Bombers hit in the cockpit never came back● Add armour around the cockpit
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Expectation bias● When you get the result you want, you stop experimenting
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Simpson's paradox● Ticket sale conversions A/B test
iOS Android
Control 1400/4000 = 0.35 200/1000 = 0.2
Experiment 40/100 = 0.4 22/100 = 0.22
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Simpson's paradox● Ticket sale conversions A/B test
iOS Android Total
Control 1400/4000 = 0.35 200/1000 = 0.2 1600/5000 = 0.32
Experiment 40/100 = 0.4 22/100 = 0.22 62/200 = 0.31
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