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Potpourri of Items from the Dismal Science
Or what you do when you can’t decide on a single topic
Dennis.Hoffman@asu.edu
Gordon’s Book
vexing headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students
Gordon warns that the younger generation may be the first in American history that fails to exceed their parents' standard of living,
Innovations from the past that boosted productivity and growth are unlikely to be repeated
Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation
Journal of Economic Perspectives David Autor MITThe Journal of Economic Perspectives (JEP) fills the gap between the general interest press and academic economics journals.
Automation worries have been with us since the 60s
Winners in todays labor markets will be those who find niches in jobs that complement computers and creativity, social skills, communications skills, overall people skills will be rewarded more thanphysical strength and strong work ethic
Reagan Clinton
What about persistent slow RGDP Growth?? Is it bad Policy??
50 40 60 70
What Role Does Demographics Play??????????
1510050095
36
34
32
30
28
26
36
34
32
30
28
26
55 and over
Share of population, %
Source: Haver Analytics
1510050095
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
Civilian Participation Rate: 16 yr +
SA, %
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Headwindsfor next President
• Aging Boomers, makers to takers• No Long term Fiscal Plan• Compromise is politically unpopular• Populism embraced by significant numbers
– Assault on Trade– Missed Opportunities on Immigration Reform– Anti Corporate– General Mistrust of Govt
Opportunitiesfor next President
to Boost Productivity
• From Financial Times– Infrastructure– Corp Tax Reform’– Immigration Reform– Regulation– Boost Competition
With low LF Participation and low Productivity Growth US Standards of Living at Stake
PER WORKER GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND PER WORKER EARNINGS BY PLACE OF WORK IN ARIZONA AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE NATIONAL AVERAGE
* Adjusted for the cost of living, beginning in 2008
Arizona has its own challenges withProductivity.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
RGDPus RGSPaz
PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME IN ARIZONA AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE NATIONAL AVERAGE
* Adjusted for the cost of living, beginning in 2008
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
1929 1935 1941 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product*Personal Income Personal Income*
Arizona Opportunities
• Educational Technology• Financial Services• Entrepreneurial Spirit/Quality of Life• Innovation Corridor 101• Air Space competitive advantage• Health Care and other High Margin Tourism• Immigration Reform and Embrace of Trade
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