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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
A Changing Landscape
• For consumers• For media• For business
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Three Drivers to this change
1. Cost of personalized production
2. Cost of marketing to individuals
3. Individuality
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
The “Starbucks” Economy
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
From Megatrends to Microtrends
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Microtrends Contradict
More affluence,More work.
More technology,More retreat.
More science,More religion.
More water,More caffeine.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Greece In Crisis
• Aging Population• Low Exports, High Imports• High government employment,
low private-sector employment• No clear economic role apart
from tourism
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
An Aging Greece
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1. Niger 49
2. Uganda 49
3. Dem. Rep. of Congo 47
4. Angola 46
5. Chad 46
6. Zambia 46
7. Malawi 46
8. Burkina Faso 46
9. Mali 45
10. Nigeria 45
World’s Oldest Countries % of Population Age <15
1. Monaco 24
2. Japan 23
3. Germany 20
4. Italy 20
5. Greece 19
6. Sweden 18
7. Latvia 17
8. Estonia 17
9. Finland 17
10. Austria 17
% of Population Age 65+
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Eurostars
As European fertility rates fall, the number of single-child families across the continent is rising.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Mammonis
On average, in Europe, a whopping 70% of men aged 18-30 still live with their parents.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Immigration an additional burden
• Greece’s population now 8.6% immigrant
• Immigrants make up nearly 1/5 of the workforce (mainly agricultural and unskilled jobs)
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Militant Illegals
As immigrant populations increase, they will have a corresponding larger impact on politics and campaigns
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Low Imports, High Exports Threaten Greek Economy
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$61.47Billion
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Huge public sector unsustainable
• Public sector accounts for approx. 40% of GDP
• Public sector also highly inefficient, rife with corruption
• National debt greatest in Europe for a country of its size
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Time for a New Niche?
China is known for manufacturing, Italy for fashion, Japan for cars, Saudi Arabia for oil. What will Greece’s new niche be?
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Volatility leads to Opportunity
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Doomsayers
Doom and gloom are in, optimism is out. While a few "doomsayers" were once
the outliers among a widely optimistic populace, today there are millions of new
pessimists talking up calamity and catastrophe as never before.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Mattress Stuffers
In today’s financial crisis, “New Mattress Stuffers” have lost their trust in the financial world, and are instead relying on
themselves for protection – with gold coins, home safes, and even guns.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Fearless Freddies
“Fearless Freddies” are going bungee-jumping into the middle of the financial crisis -- bravely increasing their investments even as the markets and the financial system collapse and
gloomy predictions abound.19
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Quasi- Government Workers
Thanks to 2008’s government bailouts, there are at least 1.6 million workers whose employers have changed suddenly from private sector to partly-owned by (or at least very beholden to)
the federal government.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Value Is the New Green
Healthy food, hybrid cars, energy efficiency -- these were the attributes that burnished brands. But now green is taking a
back seat to a new core value -- value.21
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Green Workers
Demand for eco-friendly building and retrofitting, alternative energy initiatives will make Green the next big employer.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Guys Left Behind
Although much attention is paid to women’s struggles to gain equality with men, women are actually “winning” when it comes to education, voting participation, and home ownership.
Those disparities, combined with men’s greater rates of incarceration, alcoholism, obesity, heart disease, and fatal car accidents, are resulting in a serious group of Guys
Left Behind.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Social Geeks
No longer a refuge for the anti-social, technology is embraced by the most social people in America.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Tech Fatales
Women and girls drive the majority of consumer electronics purchases in America, outspending men on technology 3 to 2.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Smartphoniacs
Smartphoniacs are an eclectic mix of the successful and powerful, busy professionals, teenagers and college students who
communicate incessantly. 26
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Video Game Grownups
As of 2006, the average video/computer game player was 33 years old – with adult women making up a substantially larger
portion of the market than teenage boys.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Pet Parents
The percentage of households in America with pets (63%) is more than twice the percentage of households with kids (30%).
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
DIY Doctors
In 2005, 117 million people used the Internet for health-related information. By 2006, that number jumped to 136 million.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
New Info Shoppers
People are becoming research addicts. These days, huge numbers of people check the internet for reviews and
ratings on virtually every product they buy. 30
% WHO WOULD RESEARCH BEFORE … All
Car 85New computer 83New doctor 83Home 81A vacation 75Voluntary medical treatment 74Television 74Camera 74New job 73Hospital 72Cell phone plan 72New cellular phone / PDA 72Internet service plan 71Maintenance person 70Vacuum cleaner 58Apartment 57Tutor for kids 53Kid’s programs 51A significant other 46Restaurant to eat at 42Household cleaning product 32Pair of boots 23Shampoo 22
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Long Attention Spanners
There is a growing group of people who want more information, not less. The average bestseller has grown 100 pages; the biggest grossing movie in America ran over 3 hours; and golf, marathons, and puzzles are on the
rise.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
30-Winkers
The number of American adults who get fewer than 6 hours of sleep a night has grown from 12% in 1998 to 16% in 2005
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Caffeine Crazies
While Americans drink more water than ever, there is also an intense group drinking more high-caffeine, super-energy drinks than ever before.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Committed Cohabiters
Today, living together unmarried represents the fastest growing type of household in America – especially in the
younger and older age bands of dating. 34
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Internet Marrieds
Internet Dating used to smell of geeky anti-socialness – but now there some 3 million Americans have turned on-line dates
into a long-term relationship or marriage.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Interspatial Couples
5% of Americans are in interspatial relationships -- and more than five times as many say they are proud of or amused by their
height differences as those who say they are embarrassed by them.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Pampering Parents
American parents today are more permissive than ever, and “spare the rod spoil the child” has been
replaced with “sit down and have a good long talk.”37
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Neglected Dads
Dads spend more time than ever with their children. But who is marketing children’s clothes, food, toys, or books to Dads?
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Southpaws Unbound
It’s been thought that left-handed people are 1 in 10,
but it’s actually closer to 1 in 6.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Vegan Children
1.5 million children in the U.S. between the ages of 8 and 18 are vegetarians -- up from virtually zero 50 years ago.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Young Knitters
Teen and 20-something knitters grew from under 3 million to over 6 million -- just between 2002 and 2004.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Uptown Tattooed
As of 2006, more than 30 million Americans have tattoos, up from fewer than 20 million just three years ago.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Flip Floppers
Flip-flops are the top wardrobe item that college and high school students wear to work.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Working Retired
5 million people aged 65+ are in the U.S. labor force, almost twice what it was in the early 1980s.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Impressionable Elites
Elites are swayed by personality, while regular voters are highly focused on health care, college affordability, and jobs.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Educated Terrorists
Terrorists are rarely the downtrodden, desperate people they are assumed to be. Their world view may
be callous, but it is highly cogent.
Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
Failure to Change is FailureCompanies that recognize the changing landscape will have the competitive edge going forward.
Companies that don’t understand will be operating in the wrong economy.
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Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
microtrends
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