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Keynote on future travel industry trends for American Express / TAP in Moscow, by Patrick Dixon, conference speaker. Future of hotels, airlines and travel agents – innovation in the travel industry. Future of business travel and leisure travel. Travel industry continues to be vulnerable to major shocks – politically, global economy, environment or other factors ranging from volcanic eruptions to the Arab Spring. Strategies of travel companies and global corporations are being overtaken by events. Impact of energy prices on future of aviation and global travel. Expect spectacular growth of aviation and rail travel in emerging economies such as China and India. The irresistible human desire to travel, explore, and gain new experiences will underpin consistent global growth in travel and tourism, despite new carbon and aviation taxes. Globalisation will also continue to force executives to sacrifice home life for travel, despite growth of teleworking and virtual teams. Business travel will grow every year over the next 20-30 years, powered by growth in emerging markets, while travel within the EU and the US will remain relatively static. Russia internal and international air travel will also grow rapidly. Asia will represent more than 40% of the global economy in Purchasing Power Parity by 2015. China travel bookings are already worth more than $100bn a year of which $15bn was booked online in 2012 – up 500% on 2008 figures. Expect huge changes in how people are organizing their own travel. What is travel really about? Business travel is dominated by one word – not economics or saving money, but by the same issue which is driving leisure travel. One single word is influencing all of human history. That word is emotion: related to passions, desires to breathe the same air as the people we work with or talk to. That is why audiences don’t like listening to keynote conference speakers on a video relay. Travel is about building trust with business colleagues. Emotion is about understanding local cultural context, about relating to customers in a deep way. It is true that videoconferencing is growing 20% a year but not enough to curtail business travel. Most people do not enjoy video conferencing and prefer to talk on the phone – unless video is between family members. In the workplace, most people are relatively uncomfortable to perform in front of a camera. Expect that to change, but the fundamental need for human relationships will drive travel. It is ironic that most people have better technology at home and faster bandwidth, than they do at work. They also have better experiences online with things like travel tools – using personal Apps like Tripit which reports with SMS, diary updates and so on with live updates of flight delays, alternative routing suggestions. Virtual travel assistants are a big growth
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Travel of the Future and the Future of Travel
ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED
But strategies often overtaken by events
World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
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WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
Russia GDP 1998-‐2012
�IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
>40% WDP by 2015
China travel bookings >$100bn 2013$15bn online -‐ 500% growth 2008-‐13
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Travel is about ............
Travel is about EMOTION
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Video-conferencing - Tele-presence20% growth a year $2.7 billion in 2011
Expect further rapid Video-conferencing growth BUT often low or negative emotional engagement
Personal Apps / SMS eg Hotel Tonight / TripIt / Taxi Magic / ZipCar
Gap between home and work
experience
• 33% of tourism spending in London is by business travellers
• Want freedom
Business AND Leisure
33% in UK don’t watch live TV
95% EU bandwidth soon video
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80% lost in <10 seconds70% in Russia are online -‐ 99% own a mobile
Russia online travel grows 20% /year
93bn Rub sales 2013
Where can I stay ?
Hotels, conference centres and travel agents
need to respond instantly to e-‐mail
Online travel revolu^on
What can she see online ?
Huge growth aggregators
Hotels and conference centres need to respond instantly to e-mail enquiries
PriceTransparency
MANAGETEAM
TRAVEL
Common mistakes in business travel
COST CUTTING
Can be demoralising
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Budget Air Travel
BUDGET BOOM: $24 billion on 234 Airbus planes
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Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink, chat, party, unwind,
dark, quiet, sleep, leave
Best for Business ?Out / Back
COST CUTTING
Can be demoralising
Easier to work on High Speed Trains
HOTELS Business customers
are changing
RoomKey
Hotel bookedon arrival in city
Would recommend you to a friend ?
80% under 35 year olds in US use social media while travelling
1 trillionpages a month
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“
This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value.
“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“ NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
74 million users a month33% business travellers
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•Home•Work•Online•Offline•Sales•Entertain•Phone•Mobile•Chat•Mobile
KNOW YOURCUSTOMER
Travel and RoomPreferences
LOCATIONLINKED
MESSAGING
• Zettabyte = 1024 ExabytesExabyte = 1024 PetabytesPetabyte = 1024 TerabytesTerabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in approximately 10 years.
BIGData
Who travelling where,how, when, why, NOW?
Do things you believe inTotal life-cost of travel
Life is Short
Work faster and efficientlyFlexible, agile, stay aheadProblems sorted rapidly
Safe, on time, trusted
+ Control costs + Compliance / reports+ Economies of scale + Duty of care
Dr Patrick Dixon slides and videos: globalchange.com -13 million users
Travel of the Future means doing it together
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