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by Derek Woodgate Plutopia is a new futures-oriented initiative that typifies the entrepreneurial creativity that Austin is famous for. This presentation will give an experiential flavor of what Plutopia is all about, as well as an insider's view of SXSW 2010. Derek Woodgate is the Founder and CEO of The Futures Lab, Inc. as well as Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer of Plutopia, Inc.
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Framing the Future: Dystopian Thinking Derek Woodgate
PREPARED FOR
CENTEXWFS
MARCH, 2010
From Dystopia to Plutopia
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Fear of the future
Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI, 2007)
Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….
911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…
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-World population should stabilize at about 12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion
people in 2100 from 6.5 billion today
- Increasing need for water - billion cubics in 1995, 3300 B in in 2020
- World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in 1970 to 25 T Kcal
- Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years - gone in next 50 (?)
- Lack of equity amongst social groups
- Number of known terrorist organizations: 154
The fear factor
FEAR!
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The fear factor
By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report) Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute)
By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and drought
Climate-related disease risks of the various health outcomes assessed by WHO will more than double by 2030. Global warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison) Heat related deaths in California could more than double by 2100
By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globally
The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class -
FEAR!
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Challenges & Concerns The Transformation of Humankind
Resource Scarcity
Environment & Climate
Security and Rights
Conflicts & Terrorism
Disease and Pandemics
Natural disasters
Population Explosion
Economic meltdown
Framing the challenge
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From Fear to Fulfillment
The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man. The unknown has always threatened the ego with self doubt and produces restlessness, anxiety and insomnia. It is resolve your negativity and fulfill your dreams and desires? important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform it's energy into new power to augment your future? Michael Patrick Bovenes
“Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.”
From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).
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The future never stops
An opportunity to create a world-beating, headline grabbing first
Make external conditions fit your goals
Accelerates self-confidence / sense of purpose and extends success
Delivers a “think the unthinkable “mentality”
Helps dispel festering fears and despondency
Taking evasive and preemptive action drives attachment awareness and positive anticipation - Take back control
How to present Dystopias as a platform for fertile innovation
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Creating Positive Anticipation
Positive anticipation starts with awareness and is then supplemented with a whole range of human dynamics, which give the knowledge purpose, social and cultural context, intention and a sense of time and place.
Certainly, consciousness plays a part, Different levels of the Self, Wilber’s Great Nest - The Four quadrants (I, we, it, its), Integral Psychology mapping, Howard Gardener’ streams and waves in his work on “multiple intelligences”.
Clients are frequently fearful of talking about dystopias even when approached as an opportunity builder
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Understanding the value of a dystopia
“You must have chaos within you to create a
dancing star.”
- Frederic Nietzsche
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Create a new vision and context for the dystopia
Subvert assumptions
Peel away the surface – experience the outcome –it is rarely an adventureRevisit values and signifiers Fracture, impact points and disruption
Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids
Change perspective and conceptual relevance
Add events and potential wildcards
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Framing dystopias and wildcards
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“One man’s magic is another man’s engineering.”
- Robert Heinlein
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Framing the challenge
Fears andChallenges
Transformation of Humankind
Conflicts & Terrorism
Natural disasters
Disease and Pandemics
Resource Scarcity
Security and Rights
Economic meltdown
Population explosion
Resource Scarcity
Sustainability
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Wide-angled lens - Sustainability
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Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments
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Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments
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Creating future leverage points
Example
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Leveraging sustainability-related dystopias
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- Richard Branson
“For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future.”
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Leveraging the sustainability-related dystopias Transportation and the environment, resource-management, changing
lifestyles, urban-migration, etc…
Client: FIAT Group, (Global)
Agriculture, population growth, resource management, food and water shortages, new farmers, etc…
Client: New Holland (Global)
Urban planning, environment, population growth, resource management, architecture, waste, community, health, etc…
Client: Bright
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Fiat Case Study
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Italian Soul Simple Solutions
Discovery Eco The Hero Inside
MasteringComplexity
Simple, ingenuous Greater power, less weight, persuasive safety attributes
New entries, strategic partnerships, smart manufacturing
New power train –simple refueling and services, even parking
The car that brings out the Warrior against the odds
Seamless Fluid lines, flow- part of me
Flexible architecture that’s a mobile office, homeand transporter
Central to the future mobility system – new business models -
From cradle to cradle –total recycling
Keeps me driving my way
Immersion A sense of culture and history
The hub in an annotated environment
The car asentertainment experience
Car through bio-mimicry
The authentic me – how I would like to be – the fully integrated me
Belonging The resilience of following your own path
Leverages the power of social networks
Makes me part of a tribe – peer
Safeguarding my kid’s future
The “do the right thing” car
Self gratification
Cheeky andfun likeability
Car takes the trauma out living
The car that delights every day – gives me fun
From “Big is beautiful” to “Small is cool”
The car which pampers me
The Next Redefining balance – playing with volumes
The car bridges the innovation chasm
Augmenting the human
The urban car – compact, space & low consumption
Honour, respect andself attainment
Bigger me The car that connects me to flair and power
Wellness- de-stress,, rejuvenation
The car that knows me better than I know myself – cognitive feedback
My personal contribution to society – The Altruist
The car that makes me a better/ safer driver - Upskilling
Exploration Freedom of spirit Expresses my progressiveness
The pioneering carcelebrating excellence
Lessons from space and air
The Magician – shape shifting, transform interiors
Personalise A sense of style and romanticism
Lifestyle transformer – enables me to do the inconceivable
The car that anticipates my mood
Contributing my way-the modular MPV
Living the story and re writing personalnarrative
Sharing 21st century femaleconnectivity
Access vs. ownership
The network car – The CommunicatorInterior / exterior
The car that joins with others to save the planet
Peer collaborative design input
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MARKETPLACEFORCES
•Fuel costs – travel reduction •Growth in HEV•Search for alternative fuels Growing potential with over 50s - high expectations/spend• Role of non-automotive companies - partnerships• Steep demand growth in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe – overall power of BRICs• Cheap cars from India and China• Stretching of luxury• New vehicle nomenclatures• New business models (sharing, personalization, battery leasing•Japan micro car market •Growing percentage of car is electronics•Growth in battery leasing•Smart coupes and cabriolets
NEW TECHNOLOGIES • Intelligent vehicles• Advanced GPS / mobile / in-car• New powertrains / HEV, Electric• Proactive - Collision avoidance• Advanced communications networks• RFIDs / Bio-metrics• Sensory networks • Alternative fuels – air, water, waste• Reactive / smart seats• Mood & health enhancing• Lighter weight vehicles• New interfaces – Voice interfaces• Interchangeable modules • Semi-autonomous agents info • OLEDs Lighting projection• Enhanced vision technologies • Cognitive monitoring & feedback• Proactive haptics• AI / robotics / Ambient intelligence• Nanotech – bio – fuel cells• Future batteries, electric / hybrid• New materials• Shape-shifting & personalized skins• Modular design and construction –
rapid prototyping
DISRUPTORS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Fuel prices reach $10 (Euro 10) per gallon
Fuel cells arrive early – ToyotaMature economies crash and have
very negative impact on BRICs$2500 car becomes highly successfulEnvironmental legislation even tougherDetroit companies disappearDevelopment of unexpected fuel: air,
water, wasteLaunching of highly successful electric
car
FUTURE CONSUMERTRENDS
• Seamlessness – digital connectivity
• Modular living
• Immersion (escapism & disconnection
• Unplugged living
• Life enrichment / experience collecting /playfulness and fantasy
• Belonging and sharing
• Transparency and integrity
• Self gratification / being remarkable
• In the know – The Next – Premium mindset
• Bigger Me – self extension
• Exploration
• New partnerships
Futures knowledge base
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QUANTIFIABLETRENDS
Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units.
• Major global investments in fuel cell tech
• of around 12% during 2008-2015.
• China will add 33 Million automobiles during 2008-2010.Growth in touch screens – 6 million units
• . Shipments of hard drives for in-car digital systems are expected to reach 16.6 million units by 2013, nearly five times the 3.5 million in 2006,
• By 2020 they expect the proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop to 45% while diesel powered cars will increase to18% of the passenger car market. The hybrid penetration predicted to increase to 27%
CRITICAL SOCIAL INFLUENCES
• Energy usage
• Fuel costs
• Environmental concerns – eco cities
• Emissions legislation
• Traffic congestion
• Technology convergence
• Economic policies, financing and costs
• Overall global population growth
• Importance of Boomers and echo-boomers
• Smaller families
• Shorter and fewer journeys
• Redefinition of luxury – includes tech – more sophisticated consumers
• People getting bigger and taller in developed countries
• Changing meaning of celebrity
• Globalization
EMERGING LIFESTYLE CHANGES
• Consumers have increasing access to product and other info
• Mobility and ubiquitous connectivity• Movement to cities / higher density
i.e. smaller, efficient vehicles• Telecommuting, working longer or
more active retirement• Expect on-demand, personalized
and flexible / reconfigurable vehicles• 50+ consumers will continue to want
to lead the lifestyle they always had - less likely to change image / identity with aging
• Multiple identities, changing archetypes, redefined lifestages
• Desire for mass “design”• Open source design – peer
colaboration• Desire for access to multiple
vehicles
PANEL / EXPERTOUTPUT SUMMARY
Cradle to cradle (recycling) and environmental issues
New business models and players i.e. Virgin, Google, etc. peer design will be massive and peer recommendations will dictate
Connectivity – car as a hub with a mesh network
Electric – simple, less complex, reductionist, easy to navigate, park and use
Modular, Lego-style with rentable add-ons (what are your needs for this weekend?)
Smartness – know me, augment my capabilities, help me do the right thing. Protect me
Well-being and healthAdvanced infotainment systemsAdaptive systems, sensors, feedbackRobot cars, AI, Nano inputUrban migration
Futures knowledge base
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Knowledge clustering to create triggers
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Trigger One: Eco/Urban – the community me
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Eco / Urban
- the community me
Hybrid path – drop spark
ignitiion gasoline powered
Major investments in
fuel cell technologies –
nano-bio advances
Robots & Ai to adapt to
driving styles and improve
fuel efficiencies.
Company transparency – brand credibility
The advantage of hybrids over non- hybrid powertrains is significantly more
pronounced in urban and
"sensible" versus highway and
"aggressive" driving patterns.
Continuing increase in fuel prices
Access / sharing
Fuel efficient – downsized engines,
battery life improvements
Household waste & air
driven vehicles
Auto-pilot -reduce
congestion
Lighter weight
vehicles
Economics – few trips, esp.
shopping – increase on-line
Alignment with green thinking & considered as highly
innovative
Environmental legislation
Fuel and environmental
concerns
New urbanist
movement
Cradle to cradle 95% of vehicle weight recyclable by
2015
Improved maneuverability, auto-pilot parking
Bigger Me
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Future triggers
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Eco / urban
Smaller is
bigger
The status of
luxury
Healthy interior
s
Infotainment
Upskilling
Design within reach
Major growth in hybrids and electricThe hybrid penetration is predicted to increase to 27 % by 2020..
Cradle to CradleHolistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health • • Environment Cost efficienciesSolar roofs, variable transmission or manual/automatic transmissions, batteries, light
Nanotech design & Lighter weight, smaller engines -new materials *carbon fiber, titanium, graphene enhanced plastics
Reconfigurable spaceReconfigurable instrument panel offering 3+1 person seating in a comfortable space. This “rotational instrument panel” extends to provide a rotary table
Shape shifting materials and architectures – elements that retract and expand
Luxury by segments tech upgradable for “creatives”; classy comfort for “boomers
Personalizing our vehicles – a palette for self-expression, life changing: The My Lounge interior concept defines a new way of consuming and selling cars. With the aspect of personalization as the overall theme,
Mood monitoring, feedback & adaptive environmentsContext-aware technologies that can read the driver’s current state (i.e analyse pitch of voice, volume and intonation, to build a picture of driver emotion) and change the sensory environment accordingly (i.e relax driver when under stress). Biofeedback – blood pressure, HR, breathing rhythm
Transformation of data processing /feedbackThe emergence of real-time, speech recognition, 3D visualization, ambient displays, leveraging the supercomputing powers enabled by abundant computing.
Wimax, MiFI (Dedicated Short Range Seamless Communications). Mobile entertainmentRemote vehicle diagnostics, compelling and less expensive telemetrics services, highly advanced automotive safety systems, and remote audio and video downloads into the vehicle.
Haptic feedbackHolistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health • • Environment •
Extending human capacity: awareness, cognitive technologies (memory – mental)
Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units.
Using new technologies and materials to reduce costs and deliver exciting designs with flairNanotech design (better fuel efficient, more durable and lighter -
New materials – carbon fibres & composites & nanotech for nanocoatings & self-cleaning plastics, etc. Advanced surface coating applications that could enhance paint adhesion, appearance and durability; Wiperless windshields; Ultra-light synthetic polymers, plastic. and carbon fibre.
Make me a better driver, safer and more competent
Smaller, more space, more power and advanced features
Personalized Luxury, sensory enhancement,
Experience collecting,
Lower costs, enviro-friendly, , ease of getting around
Seamless connectivity,, freedom & independence
Feeling at my best in body, mind & soul
Exciting design at affordable prices
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STAGE THREE – FUTUREMAPPINGOiling the triggers to create a concept platform
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STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING
Oiling the triggers - Concept engineering
A new tool kit
Mutate Rethink Spin
Migrate
Transform Simulate Displace Fuse Translate
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Future Automotive Landscape
European EV market estimated to roll out more than 250,000 vehicles
E.U. fuel economy - equivalent of 43 miles per U.S. gallon
Lithium-ion battery technology R&D increase to $5 billion (from $1 billion in 2008)
OLED/ warning signage introduced in vehicles
Interactive 3D screens delivering entertainment and information
Electronics demand from Ultra Low Cost Car $10,000, is expected to reach $8.2 billion by 2015
25%of Japanese households
powered by fuel cells
Sweden aims to achieve a complete oil-free economy
Proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop
to 45 % of market China to overtake the US as the largest single vehicle market
Nano-size electronics inside active contact lenses receives media and entertainment
Fuel cell cars mass
marketed
India; 16-percent per year growth
in light vehicle production
Premium segment predicted to grow to 3 million in US and 3.5 million in Western
Europe
City Transport Cell (CTC) reconfigurable vehicles
All-electric plug in vehicles a reality
Consumers expect comprehensive and integrated transportation service and car relative to need
Commercial operations of the SwissRapide Express - using Maglev technology
US: cars require fuel-efficiency standard of 35.7 miles/gal (15km/litre)
Up to 5% of conventional lights replaced by OLEDs (Western oucntries
Home energy station enable drivers to fill up their cars at home
14% of vehicles fitted
with branded
premium sound
features (double 2007 figure
Market for display based entertainment systems, (OE and aftermarket) reaches $5.9B
OE and aftermarket -advanced wireless technologies for equipped systems reaches $1.9B
Market for multimedia and communications systems worth US$27B
18.2m parking assistance systems fitted in to newly-registered cars
Data filtering and behavior agents
20182016 2017 201920152014
By 2015, experts predict nanomaterials will reach 70% usage in automotive applications (fuel efficiencies, lighter & durable)
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STAGE THREE – FUTUREMAPPING
Refining the concept platform
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STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING
Opportunity hacking
White spaces
Black holes
Hidden worlds
Missing colors
Unusual perspectives
Reversed focus
Paradoxes & hybrids
Reapply the wildcards To ‘Stretch’ the thinking paradigm To ‘Expand’ the thinking paradigm To ‘Crack’ the thinking paradigm
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STAGE FOUR:FUTURESCAPING
Re-contextualizing platforms
Implicate not replicate
Integrates disparate areas
Higher order properties
The platform as an event
Dimensions not units
Human-centric
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STAGE FOUR/FIVE – FUTUREMAPPING/FUTURETUNING
Creating and evaluating the future scenarios
For confidentiality reasons, I cannot show the outputs or finally selected / developed preferred futures and action plan. We created 11 future concepts, which we worked on with 30 key personnel from FIAT for 2 days.
We selected 4 preferred futures, which were evaluated and taken through design, prototyping and market opportunity study.
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Bright Green Austin is a network of sustainability activists
Austin Energy's green power program is #1 in the nation in sale and taking the lead in developing a forward-thinking Plug-in Hybrid electric Vehicle (PHEV) strategy!
Reduced pollution
Resource consumption
Health (tackling obesity, exercise, zoning, brain)
Stress reduction (improved aesthetics, culture, greening)
Community and contribution
100 MW of solar facilities by 2020
30% of our electric supply from renewable generation sources by 2020.
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The city as data
Sensor playgrounds - simulation
Leveraging real-time data to utilize emerging behaviors in space
Responsive, kinetic architecture –CO2 detection
Zero waste and improved resource utilization
Open source streets & annotated environments
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My city, my body
Biological interactions and biomapping
Bio identities and communities
Cognitive feedback
Organic dwellings
Urban play - DIY
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Community design
Resilient communities
Ability to withstand systemic shocks
Generate value and income
Smart grids, microgrids supporting local food production
City as a laboratory
The slow city movement (Cittaslow) – anti-standardization
Networked co-working
Future City and Sim City
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Sustainable material thinking
Pollution resistant coatings Nanomembranes – fresh water facility and virtual water Printable solar cells From carbon nano-tubes to polymer scaffolding Media architecture Interactive facades Buildings as city lighting Self-analyzing and healing
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Beyond density building
Urban farming - vertical
Marine habitats
Spin farming
Permaculture – edible landscapes
Green roofs, hydroponic and container farming
Nanoarchitecture – smart greenhouses
Invisible buildings - metamaterials
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Expanding our network / community
Masdar City - Dubai Zero waste, zero carbon
New Songdo City (West Seoul) – tech testbed
Nano City, India – Collaborative communities
Dongtan – Eco city
Fibercity, Tokyo – spatial fibers
Consulting for the future of New Orleans
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A call to action
"It’s a failure of imagination to think that climate change is going to be an escape from jail – and it’s a failure in a couple of ways. Kim Stanley Robinson
1.Total systems failure
2. Limits to growth – failure of restraint and the likely cause of mini collapses.
The continuing need for sophisticated technology and alternative design are critical, but continue to be a burden.
Create the desired future vs. Complexity theory
- Working beyond emergence, simulated patterns and visible connections – the rhizomatic approach looking for the rhythms in between the lines.
,
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The power and persuasiveness of the arts
Artists change minds primarily by introducing new ideas, skills, and practices. They make use of an array of diverse mental representations that infect our minds.
Howard Gardner – Changing Minds
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Plutopia – Experience the Future
Bill McKinnon – Best selling author – sustainable economicsBruce Sterling – Sci Fi writerDJ Spooky – Author, Professor, Composer, ExperimentalistStanza – Interactive, generative, DNA-based artistHipnautica – Technology-inspired musicGreen Grover – Multi-media artist (Green Visions)Natasha Vita More - TranshumanistAdam Zaretsky – Bio artistChris Jordan – Social commentator / artistSandy Stone – academic theorist, artist performerThe Robot Group
We only hire eco-friendly venuesNew trend: Temple (San Fran.), Surya (London) Greenhouse (New York), Watt (Rotterdam)
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Plutopia 2010
“Your thoughts create your future.” - Stephen Knapp. Philosopher
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