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Remote area power
market overview
Presenter: Felix Jander
Remote Area Power Supply Conference, Melbourne Date:22/03/2016
Slide 2
ACIL Allen Consulting
Australian owned, independent, economics, public policy and public affairs
management consulting firm in Australia
60 consultants plus support staff
Offices in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide
Recent projects:
Queensland Productivity Commission inquiry into electricity prices
Market modelling for the 2014 RET Review
Market advisor for energy market transactions:
Vendor market advisors in the successful $3bn+ sale process of Pacific Hydro to China
State Power Investment Corporation
Advisor to QIC on the successful $1.78bn acquisition of the Iona underground gas
storage facility in Victoria
Advisor to NSW Treasury in the sale processes for the NSW generator assets
Advisor to project developer and financiers of numerous renewable energy projects
Slide 3
Market overview
8
7
9
6
3
41 5
2
6 Remote Queensland
4 Remote Western Australia
5 Remote Northern Territory
1 North West Interconnected System
3 Mt Isa
2 Darwin Katherine Interconnected System
9 Remote Victoria and New South Wales
7 Remote South Australia
8 Remote Tasmania
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
GWh
As of FY 2011-12
6 Remote Queensland
4 Remote Western Australia
5 Remote Northern Territory
1 North West Interconnected System
3 Mt Isa
2 Darwin Katherine Interconnected System
9 Remote Victoria and New South Wales
7 Remote South Australia
8 Remote Tasmania
Residential/commercial/ community
21%
Energy and resources77%
Other2%
15 TWh of demand
Slide 4
Generation by fuel
As of FY 2011-12
6
Natural gas68%
Liquid fuels32%
3
Natural gas99%
Liquid fuels1%
4
Natural gas76%
Liquid fuels20%
Other renewables4%
1
Natural gas98%
Liquid fuels2%
5
Natural gas30%
Liquid fuels70%
2Natural gas97%
Liquid fuels3%
Natural gas79%
Liquid fuels19%
Other renewables2%
NEGI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
MW
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
MW
4,800 MW
Natural gas Liquid fuels Wind Solar Other renewables
Slide 5
Demand growth and outlook
5-year CAGR for Energy Demand
Horizon Power (excl. NWIS) -0.7%
DKIS 1.2%
Tennant Creek 0.7%
Alice Springs -1.6%
Note: Based on actual demand, FY 2009-10 to
2014-15 for Horizon Power, FY 2008-09 to
2013-14 for Northern Territory
Source: Horizon Power, Annual Reports NT Power System Reviews
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Sa
nd
sto
ne
No
rse
ma
n
La
vert
on
Es
pera
nc
e
Lo
om
a
Le
on
ora
Wilu
na
Ha
lls
Cre
ek
Dja
rin
dji
n
Fit
zro
y C
ross
ing
De
rby
Me
ek
ath
arr
a
Co
ral
Ba
y
Bid
yad
an
ga
Ho
pe
tou
n
On
slo
w
CA
GR
20
09
-10
to
20
14-1
5
Demand growth
Since 2011-12:
Some 37 MW of new large scale solar
(incl. under construction)
More than 100 MW (conservative
estimate) of roof-top solar in remote areas
Slide 6
Regional electricity subsidies
Queensland
Uniform tariff policy for all customers
Western Australia
Uniform tariff policy for customers
consuming less than 160 MWh/a in the
SWIS and customers consuming less than
4 GWh/a outside the SWIS
Northern Territory
Community Service Obligations for
customers in remote areas and customers
consuming less than 750 MWh/a in the
DKIS
Price signals are lost:
Reduced incentive to conserve electricity
Reduced incentive for renewables
WA, $651
NT*, $164
QLD, $596
• Incl. remote water and sewerage
services
$1,410 million/a total in 2014-15
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Ergon East
Ergon West
Ergon Isolated (excl. Mt Isa)
NT
NT remote*
Synergy
Horizon
$/connection/a
Slide 7
Regional Electricity Subsidies
What type of power system could you
imagine?
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