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Adapta&on to Climate Change: An Ini&al View 1 August 2013 | Tim Jones | Dave McCormick
Topics covered include: § Foresight and Future Agenda § The Context For Adapta@on § Adapta@on Policy and Plans § Business Risk § Varia@ons by Geography
§ Impact of Ci@es § Levels of Adapta@on Ac@vity § Implica@ons and Trade Offs
This document summarises views shared by several companies as part of a recent project with BSR to explore a@tudes and emerging strategies around adapta&on to climate change
Contents
As change accelerates in an increasingly connected world, more companies are looking further ahead to beEer understand emerging opportuni&es and challenges
Foresight and Future Agenda
Organisa&ons increasingly want to iden&fy and understand both the an&cipated and unexpected changes
so that they can be beEer prepared for the future
Foresight and Future Agenda
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that looks at the big issues for 2020 so that
organisa&ons can beEer focus and s&mulate innova&on
Foresight and Future Agenda
The Context for Adapta&on
As we experience more frequent extreme weather, many around the world are now recognising while others are star&ng
to respond to the wider impacts of climate change
Extreme Weather
Most organisa&ons have primarily been focusing efforts on changing behaviours and strategies in order to mi&gate the
effects of climate change and change direc&on
Mi&ga&on of Climate Change
Much of the ini&al debate and ac&on has been around trying to keep global warming under 20C and carbon at 350 ppm – unfortunately both targets that now look unachievable
Mi&ga&on of Climate Change
Many see that at the current rate of change, we may well hit 500ppm of CO2 concentra&on by 2050 and that, on average, the
world will be well over 40C warmer
The Big Challenge Ahead
Although mi&ga&on is a primary focus for many, some recognise that wai&ng for its impact is not enough and so we also need to adapt to the implica&ons of climate change
Need for Adapta&on
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
The UNFCCC supports the formula&on and implementa&on of na&onal adapta&on plans and programs that consider
approaches to address damage associated with climate change
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
Several governments around the world are seen to be taking a lead on changing the regulatory frameworks around adapta&on
and resilience to climate change
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
Na&onal adapta&on plans are star&ng to drive ac&on in specific sectors and as climate is seen as a threat to na&onal
security this will push adapta&on up the agenda
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
Business Risk
Adapta&on to climate change is fast emerging on to the risk radars of a number of leading organisa&ons and governments
and is therefore becoming more visible to society
Business Risk
Several organisa&ons see the three areas of climate change mi&ga&on, resilience and adapta&on through their own view of business risk such as maintaining water supply
Business Risk
For example, food and drink companies are focusing on the pressures on crop varie&es and the need to respond to such issues as increased drought and saltwater tolerance
Business Risk
Several organisa&ons are also recognising wider risks around such issues as workforce support, security of supply chains and
poten&al shiXs in associated consumer a@tudes
Business Risk
For some, the worry of focusing on the immediate, short-‐term visible risk may result in ac&ons that have a longer term
nega&ve impact with unintended consequences
Business Risk
Physical Environment Changes
Opera@onal Rules and Constraints
Social Expecta@ons and ShiPs
As a result, some leading organisa&ons are seeing adapta&on as having direct linkages to their ability to operate globally and
effec&vely serve customers, stakeholders and society
Business Risk for Adapta&on
Varia&ons by Geography
There is broad recogni&on that adapta&on measures are shaped by the specific context and so adapta&on efforts must be focused at the local not global generic level
Varia&ons by Geography
Globally the impact of climate is well recognised as being unevenly distributed with some countries more exposed to
change than others
Varia&ons by Geography
India is one loca&on where adapta&on involves trade-‐offs between such issues and clean water and energy supply with
market-‐orientated regula&on playing a key role
Varia&ons by Geography
Insurance companies see that weather related catastrophes have tripled since 1980: In 2012 the US experienced
11 extreme events each cos&ng more that $1bn
Varia&ons by Geography
Impact of Ci&es
Adapta&on is at the forefront of thinking and development for all ci&es globally with organisa&ons such as the C40 and ICLEI
increasingly ac&ng as catalysts for this
Impact of Ci&es
Already 22 of the top 50 wealthiest ci&es are prone to serious flooding which will also impact housing, poverty,
cost of energy and social breakdown
Impact of Ci&es
The ten most ‘at risk ci&es’ globally already have combined popula&ons of over 150m and are projected by the UN to have
grown by a further 50% adding another 75m by 2025
Impact of Ci&es
Some can envisage a situa&on where major ci&es may start to have to self-‐insure and rebuild – In the wake of hurricane Sandy
New York is just one of the first to be considering this
Impact of Ci&es
Levels of Adapta&on Ac&vity
While mi&ga&on of climate change is very much the focus for many, for those NGOs who are star&ng to look towards a 40C
warmer world, adapta&on has been gaining trac&on
Levels of Ac&vity
However, some organisa&ons do not talk about adapta&on as it implies defeat on mi&ga&on, is increasingly poli&cal and may well alienate key stakeholders and customers
Levels of Ac&vity
Even though they may not be using the term ‘adapta&on’, others are star&ng to be more open to the issues raised
by a substan&al shiX in the world’s climate
Levels of Ac&vity
Mi&ga&on ac&on is significantly more mature in many organiza&ons and for the majority of companies it is s&ll early
days for adapta&on considera&ons
Levels of Ac&vity
We see a matrix of different types of responses to climate change adapta&on that looks at both different levels of
adapta&on and well as levels of impact
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
Many organisa&ons see adapta&on as responding to climate change related events as and when they happen – be that flooding, drought, migra&on or other socio-‐economic shiXs
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
Some companies, especially in the u&li&es and logis&cs arenas, are adap&ng to increased intensity and frequency of climate
events and broader implica&ons
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
A number of food and drink companies are increasingly focused on key impacts beyond their immediate fence-‐line looking across the inbound supply chain and wider business systems
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
Others are moving ahead to focus on the impacts of climate change across the board and extending approaches to help local
suppliers and their communi&es be beEer prepared
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
And some organisa&ons have been suppor&ng collabora&ve projects to explore how they could best enable broader societal
and eco systems to beEer adapt to climate change
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
There is a need for greater human adapta&on to climate change – around workforces and communi&es as well as preparing future genera&ons and changing a@tudes
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
It is clear that as we move forward adapta&on will play an increasingly important role in defining and shaping both governmental and business a@tudes and risk strategies
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
Although there are clear gaps around issues such as alignment between policy and business ac&ons, adapta&on will become a
significant issue for a wide range of organisa&ons
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
Enabling long term planning for adapta&on is difficult as short-‐termism and quick win opportuni&es are focusing thinking and
priority ac&ons in many organisa&ons
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
While some seek the financial jus&fica&on for inves&ng in adapta&on, others are seeing it as part of doing good business
where the benefit is shared by many
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
The reality facing many is that we need to act now and this requires both a clearer view of the likely impacts of adapta&on as
well as beEer understanding the specific implica&ons
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
For major climate change events you may have 5 years of planning but only 45 minutes to act, and then an extra 5 minutes
of &me saved is worth a lot
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
Physical Environment Changes
Opera@onal Rules and Constraints
Social Expecta@ons and ShiPs
Recognise the Pivotal Gaps and
Challenges
Understand and Quan@fy the
Impact
Align Objec@ves for Business, Systems
and Society
Define the Local Implica@ons and
Op@ons
Establish Collabora@on on Core Ac@vi@es
Those organisa&ons seeing adapta&on as a key challenge are now looking to form partnerships to collec&vely take on the
pivotal challenges locally
Summary
Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org tim.jones@futureagenda.org
The world’s leading open foresight program
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