Pep CanadellGCP International Project Office

http://www.GlobalCarbonProject.org

The Partnership and Stakeholders

IPCC

NATIONAL / POLICY GOVERNMENT

NATIONAL/REGIONALCARBON PROGRAMS

INTERNATIONAL

PROTOCOLS

Observational ProgramsIGOS-P [IGCO]

CO2 Panel

[IOC-SCOR]

IGBP

WCRP

IHDP

Terrestrial National and Regional Programs

LBA

CarboEruope

China

Australia

North AmericaCarbon Plan

Siberia

Jp

SA

NZ

Canadian

2

Hydrographic Sampling Stations

Ships of Opportunity

Pacific Ocean

Indian Ocean

Ocean National and Regional Programs

Courtesy of Chris SabineCourtesy of Chris Sabine

To develop comprehensive, policy-relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions.

Research Goal

The Conceptual Framework

Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology

AtmosphericCarbon

TerrestrialCarbon

Ocean/CoastalCarbon

BiologicalPump

ClimateChange

andVariabil.

SolubilityPump

Unperturbed C CyclePerturbed C Cycle

Land UseSystems

IndustryTransportSystems

Ocean-useSystems

FossilCarbon

Perceptionsof humanwelfare

Changes ininstitutions& technol.

Perception of a problem

1. To develop a research framework for integration of the biogeochemical, biophysical and human components of the global carbon cycle

The GCP Mandate

6. To develop a small number of new research initiatives that are feasible within a 3-5 year time framework on difficult and highly interdisciplinary problems of the carbon cycle

5. To strengthen the carbon-related research programs of nations and regions, and those in international programs such as IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and the observation community, through better coordination, articulation of goals, and development of conceptual frameworks

4. To provide a global coordinating platform for regional and national carbon programs to improve observation network design, data standards, information and tools transfer, and timing of campaigns and process-based experiments, including the development of data-model fusion schemes, and design of cost effective observational and research networks

3. To develop tools and conceptual frameworks to couple the biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle

2. To synthesize current understanding of the global C cycle and provide rapid feedback to the research and policy communities and general public

1. Patterns and Variability1.1. Enhancing Observations

• Coordination & Standardization• Lateral Movement of C• Non-CO2 compounds

1.2. Model-Data Fusion• Forward and Inverse Modeling• Model-data fusion techniques

1.3 Carbon Budgets• Standardized Methodologies• Developing Methodologies• Geographic/Sector Analyses

2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks2.1. Mechanisms

• Multiple mechanisms in oceans• Multiple mechanisms on land• Integrated anthrop. C emissions

2.2. Regional Development• Case studies• Drivers and C consequences• Management options

2.3 Emergent Properties• Carbon-Climate interactions• Carbon-climate-human interactions

3. Future Dynamics

3.1. Biological Control Points• C sequestration• Non-fossil emissions

3.2. FF Emissions Control Points• Mitigation options• Technological changes

3.3 Carbon 21• Institutional analyses and design• Interactions between adaptat & mitigat.• Interactions between C & others• Tools and approaches for C managem.

Portfolio of Activities & Products

2002 2003

Annual SSC Meeting

Land Use-Carbon SI

Publication Science Framework

Terrestrial Sinks Wk

Research Institute Data Assimilation

State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk

Ocean Coordination Wk

2004

Regional T. C Budgets Confer.

CO2 Stabilization Pathways Wk

T. Data Assimilation: Data Wk

Respiration Book

International Project and Affiliate Offices

CSIRO,Canberra Australia

NCAR,Boulder USA

NIES,TsukubaJapan

Max Planck InstituteJena, Germany

IOC/SCOR-CO2 PanelParis, France

Co-Chairs:Michael Raupach, Australia (IGBP)Robert Dickinson, USA (WCRP)Oran Young, USA (IHDP)

Executive Director:Pep Canadell, Australia

Michael Apps, CanadaAlain Chedin, FranceCheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China (Tapei)

Peter Cox, UKEllen Druffel, USAChristopher Field, USAPatricia Romero Lankao, MexicoLouis Philipe Lebel, ThailandAnnan Partwardhan, IndiaMonika Rhein, GermanyChristopher Sabine, USARiccardo Valentini, ItalyYoshiki Yamagata, Japan

Scientific Steering Committee

www.GlobalCarbonProject.org

Focus 1: Patterns and Variability

Night LightsOcean C Storage (mol m-2)

Ocean C Fluxes Terrestrial NPP

Takahashi et al. 2002)

NASASabine (unpublished)

Cramer et al. 2000)

What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks?

Canadell et al. 2000

Data-ModelFusion

[Use of multiplestreams of datasets]

C stock and flux measurementsInventory analysesProcess-based informationClimate dataRemote sensingCO2 column from spaceInverse modelingProcess-based modelingRetrospective and forward analysesMany others

Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

B = biomass

H =

hum

ans

Emerging Properties of the coupled system

Paleo Naturally dynamics Land Use Change

Institutional Responses

What are the controls and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle on scales of years to millennia?

CO2 fertilization

Carb

o n S

tor a

ge

New Biospheric Responses

Fossil Fuel Emissions

Focus 2: Carbon Sink MechanismsCa

rbo n

Sto

rag e

in t h

e B i

osph

ere

aCO2 concentrationTemperature

Temperature

Land use

Ocean iron depositionNitrogen deposition

Warm ecosystems

Coldecosystems

Soil respiration

CO2 fertilization

N fertilization Fe fertilization

Forestconversion

Plant growth

x

x

x

x

Focus 2: Coupling the Climate-Carbon-Human System

(Biogeophysical)

(Biogeochemical)

Hadley Center Climate Model

Hum

an Dim

ension

Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle

Friedlingstein et al. 2000

Terrestrial Biosphere C Sink

Cramer et al. 2000

IPCC 2001

What are the likely dynamics of the global carbon cycle into the future?

Hydrographic Sampling Stations

Ships of Opportunity

International CLIVAR/CO2 Lines

GCP-CO2 Panel Workshop: [13-15 Jan. 2003, UNESCO, Paris]

Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities

• To gather information on activities

• To identify gaps and duplications

• To produce recommendations

• To integrate with other C data

Research Institute Series [2002-2005]:Data Assimilation in C Cycle Research

Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation, Boulder, Colorado (US), 20 – 31 May 2002

Research, Tool development, Educational, Outreach

1. Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [2002]

2. Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2003]

3. Land Data-Model Assimilation [2004]

4. Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2005]

http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/

C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways

Contribution to: Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and

the Global Carbon CycleSTART-Packard FoundationNCAR, Boulder, Colorado,

4 – 22 August 2003

Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities

and their surrounds in the Asia-Pacific Region: Establishing a network of regional case studies

APN proposal submitted

Sour

ce: D

iane

Pat

aki

Energy and Carbon: Options and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas signature over the next 50 years

By using a mix of:energy strategies (renewables, conservation, cogeneration, efficiency increases) carbon sequestration (in terrestrial biotic, geological and oceanic sinks)

agricultural practices linked with non-CO2 emissions.

2. To develop and analyse a suite of pathways (scenarios)

1. To assess mitigation and adaptation options against environmental, social and economic (triple-bottom-line) criteria, including:

(1) effectiveness(2) technological feasibility; (3) institutional viability; (4) economic viability; (5) social acceptability; (6) non-greenhouse impacts

Workshop proposal for 2003Australia as a case study

Impacts of land use/cover onthe C cycle: fire, erosion, plantations, agriculture, pasture

APN-GCTE-GCP, Kobe, 2001Publication due: Dec. 2002

Publication: Land Use and the C Cycle in Asia Pacific

Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks : Science, Technology and Policy Wengen, Switzerland, September 25 - 27, 2002

Wengen Series-GCP-GCTEPublication due: Feb 2004

Publication:Terrestrial Sinks and their Policy Relevance

Atmospheric Composition and Associated Climate Change

IPCC 20011

Toward CO2 Stabilization:Issues, Strategies, and ConsequencesWk: Feb. 2003, Ubatuba, Brazil SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Publication due: End 2003

State-of-the-art Synthesis:Towards CO2 Stabilization

SCOPE Series

1. current status of the carbon cycle; 2. future trends in the carbon cycle; 3. potential for deliberate management of the C cycle; 4. carbon-climate-human interactions.

Topics:

Science: Rh in soils, freshwater, and coastal zones; disturbanc.; land use change.Methods: modeling, scaling, experimental approaches

Publication due: 2004

Publication: Carbon Oxidation Fluxes and Processes

IGBP Book Series

Proposal under development

Science Themes

• Focus 1: Patterns and Variability– A1.1: Enhancing observational knowledge of major C stores and fluxes– A1.2: Model-data fusion and model development– A1.3: Comprehensive regional and sectoral carbon budgets

• Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions– A2.1: Mechanisms and feedbacks controlling carbon fluxes– A2.2: Carbon consequences of regional development pathways– A2.3: Emergent properties of the coupled carbon-climate-human system

• Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle– A3.1 Future of terrestrial and ocean sinks and sources– A3.2 Future of FF emissions– A3.3: Carbon21 - Integrated management strategies

• Synthesis, communication, coordination

Atmospheric CO2 and associated warming

Thousands of Years (x1000)

180

280

Global Carbon Project 2001IPCC 2001