Dams and Development-Case of Pakistan

Pervaiz Amir Presented at GWP-IWMI Workshop on

Water, Food Security and Climate Change, Colombo Sri Lanka 24-25

February, 2011

• Dams in Pakistan’ history, contribution to agriculture, industrial and economic growth-part of Indus Package

• Tarbela Dam WCD case- actual benefits exceed predicted. • Dam Justification irrigation but hydropower crucial output • Dams neutralize flood impacts? Do they? 2010 US $ 10

billion originally stated as US $ 43 billion • Climate Change, environmental flows, salvaging dead rivers • Dams and Food Security • Dams mega investments, delays even costlier • Dams regulate water and symbolize development-

monuments of human endeavor • Great plans but slow or no implementation

Actual vs. Predicted Benefits of Tarbela Dam (1998/M$)

Pedicted Actual

2500

1500

Hydropower

Irrigation

2400

1500

22.0 M

19.6 M

1750

3000

Status of Dams in Pakistan

Outlook of Hydropower Development

Challenge #1 Water Security • Amount 145 MAF available to

Manage • Water Security only 30 days

or less • Population 2010 (180 million )

2035 (350 million) • Global Warming and Glacier

melt (80% melting)

• Transboundary conflicts- Avg vs. Actual flows

• Pakistan 12.35 MAF out of 145 MAF

• India 245 MAF out of 750 MAF

• Climate Change- Treaties under threat--Realities

Challenge #2 Energy Security

• Pakistan faces short fall of 5000 MW

• Energy Mix Hydro Nuclear Oil

• Hydropower potential is 60,000 MW- alternatives yes but no demonstrated contribution

• Price Rs. 0.28/watt alternate Rs 15 per watt

• Losing 5+% GDP annually due to shortfalls

• Discontent, political turmoil and social disharmony

Future direction will increase Co2 emissions

Challenge # 3 Food Security • IFPRI predicts 44-50% decline in

wheat and rice yields due to CC • Pakistan facing acute water

shortages, rising temperatures and uneven rainfall distribution

• Food insecurity leads to rising poverty, marginalization and extremism

• Dams can help stabilize food production, increase crop intensity and diversify agriculture

• Better to simultaneously invest in agriculture and water development-no use giving first class costly water to third class traditional agriculture

Water Flows on the Indus

5,00

15,00

25,00

35,00

45,00

55,00

65,00

75,00

85,00

95,00

61

-62

63

-64

65

-66

67

-68

69

-70

71

-72

73

-74

75

-76

77

-78

79

-80

81

-82

83

-84

85

-86

87

-88

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-90

91

-92

93

-94

95

-96

97

-98

99

-00

20

01-0

2

20

03-0

4

20

05-0

6

20

07-0

8

(MA

F)

Indus river Total Inflows at Tarbela Rim Station (1922-2009).

Kharif + rabi TarbelaLinéaire (Kharif + rabi Tarbela)

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

61

-62

63

-64

65

-66

67

-68

69

-70

71

-72

73

-74

75

-76

77

-78

79

-80

81

-82

83

-84

85

-86

87

-88

89

-90

91

-92

93

-94

95

-96

97

-98

99

-00

20

01-0

2

20

03-0

4

20

05-0

6

20

07-0

8

(MA

F)

Table Indus River Kharif Inflows at Tarbela Rim Station (1922-2009)

Kharif Tarbela Linéaire (Kharif Tarbela)

Challenge # 4 Buffering Climate Change

• Glacier Melt saved in dams or in dangerous GLOF– hydraulic challenges

• Why dams-- if flows projected to decline

• Living with half empty glasses

• Dams during floods and droughts

• Dams as instruments of Planned Adaptation

• What if no climate change takes place?? Are investments in dams worthwhile

Challenge# 5 Stabilizing Economic Growth/welfare/Equity/Distribution

• Its my dam too and so is my road! • Gainers compensating losers • Upfront investments in technology, agriculture,

planning and human capital • Role of markets in allocating water and electricity • National Engagement- the US I-40 experience • Kinks from Climate Change e.g. flood aberrations • Dams as breeding grounds for Malaria/Dengue • New avenues and area development –beyond

status quo

50 B Question!

• For Pakistan Climate Change is a matter of Developing Water Security. The costs are US $ 1.85/MAF and 25 MAF water development is mere replacement works.

• The New financiers are in search of markets and South Asia provides the population center of the World

• Debt Servicing/write-off to address climate change adaptation

New Breed of Water Managers who address Questions of Public Policy

• How much debate on dams is desirable and when does decision making process set in to finalize decisions on dams that are backed by the constitution or in the case of India (the legislature)?

• In each and every circumstance there is the upper lower riparian issue since water is a flow which after dam building gets converted into a stock?

• Benefit Sharing is an emerging area of economics –are governments willing to part with the historical power play including reforms in historical rights and entitlements when water changes its historical free flow course?

• In Pakistan’s the rural vs. urban divide increases—where do dams fit in? when they can eat up budgets in tune of almost 8-10% GDP of a country like Pakistan. Balancing such an undertaking requires consensus building often becoming difficult due to political polarization.

Lessons Learned from Dams in Pakistan

• Indecision is costly • Have served Pakistan’s interests well • New Dams require extensive benefit sharing-especially those that

are contentious • Environmental concerns only given “lip service”

• Mismanagement, governance and corruption are very serious issues in the water sector-is it only Pakistan specific?

• Climate change is forcing response in water sector-it has to be both demand and supply side driven

• Platforms that bridge the intellectual gap (post WCD) and guide the process of achieving water security can play important role

• Capacity Building of Policy Institutions and Water Managers • Way forward is in implementation, evaluating , adjusting and again

implementing hard choices with minimum time lag

Let us not have to tell our grand children this is the way we left it for you !

Thanks and may God bless you !