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How Turkey is Perceived in Armenia: Some findings from the Caucasus Barometer Surveys June 4th, 2012 Yerevan [email protected]

CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

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Page 1: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

How  Turkey  is  Perceived  in  Armenia:  Some  findings  from  the  Caucasus  

Barometer  Surveys      

June  4th,  2012  Yerevan  

[email protected]

Page 2: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

Outline  

•  Armenia-­‐Turkey:  General  Overview  and  Economic  relaDons  

•  Some  findings  from  the  CB  surveys:  – AKtudes  towards  Armenia-­‐Turkey  relaDons  – AKtudes  in  Armenia  and  Azerbaijan  towards  soluDon  of  NK  conflict  

•  Some  findings  from  the  TESEV  survey  

Page 3: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

Armenia  and  Turkey  Comparison  

Armenia  •  Area  29,743  sq  km  •  PopulaDon  3.2  mln*  •  GDP(2011)  10.1  bln  •  GDP  p/c    3,100  US$  

*As  of  Oct  2011  vs.  3.5  mln  in  1914  

 

Turkey  •  Area  780,580sq  km  •  PopulaDon  74.7  mln*    

•  GDP(2011)  US$  772.3  billion  

•  GDP  p/c  (2011)  US$  10,444  

 *  As  of  Jan  2012  vs.  13.6mln  in  1927  

 

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Current  Access  to  Turkey  from  Armenia  

Source: Beilock, et al, 2007, AJPP

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Foreign  Trade  (Exp  &  Imp)  Between  Turkey  and  South  Caucasus  Countries:  Armenia  trading  trough  Georgia?  

18 57 93

118

142

240 255

207 287 271 241

429

503

572

4.9

12.3

45.9 59.8

41.3

42 34.8 39.6

37.9

40.2

60.4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan

*Calculations were made to comment the paper “Exploring Complementarities …” presented by Prof. Sema Kalaycioglu in AIPRG conference in January 2007.

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Official  StaDsDcs  on  Trade:  Share  of  Turkey  in  Armenia’s  Export  and  Import  (%  of  total)  

0.3  

0.7  

4.3  

6.2  

5  

4.5  

3.8   3.9  

2.9   2.8  

3.3  

4.4  

4.0  

6.1  

5.3  

6.3  

0.9  

2.0  

3.0  

1.3  

0.4   0.5  

0.3  

0.3  

0.2   0.3  

0.3  

0.2  

0.3  

0.2  

0.2  

0.1  

1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010  

Imports   Exports  

Source:  NSS  of  RA  (hkp://armstat.am/file/arDcle/l_2nish_10_2.pdf)  

Page 7: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

Caucasus  Barometer:  Methodology  

•  Almost  2,000  people  in  Armenia,  Georgia  and  Azerbaijan  (per  country)  starDng  from  2004  

•  RepresentaDve  of  total  adult  (18+)  populaDon  •  ProporDonate  representaDon  of  demographic  and  

geographic  groups  •  MulD-­‐stage  cluster  sampling  •  Household  selecDon:  Random  walk  method  •  Respondent  selecDon:  Kish  table  •  Face-­‐to-­‐face  interviews  in  local  languages  

Page 8: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

Caucasus  Barometer  2006:  APtudes  on  cooperation  in  poliQcal  sphere  with  Turkey  (%  of  total)  

21.7

9.5

21.9

15.9

28.5

10.9

19.3

15.6

30.4

40.7

30.0

35.1

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

SC DK & Refuse

Fully supportive

Rather supportive

Neutral

Rather oppose

Fully oppose

Page 9: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

Caucasus  Barometer  2006:  APtudes  on  cooperation  in  economic  sphere  with  Turkey  

21.7

10.9

19.5

16.2

24.1

19.1

20.6

20.2

28.6

59.4

33.5

43.5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

SC

DK & Refuse

Fully supportive

Rather supportive

Neutral

Rather oppose

Fully oppose

Page 10: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

CB  2009-­‐2010:  APtudes  towards  doing  business  with  Turks  2009-­‐2010  (%  of  total)  

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93  

86  

73  

72  

68  

66  

60  

56  

40  

32  

5  

11  

22  

24  

26  

30  

34  

40  

57  

64  

Armenians  

Russians  

Americans  

 English  

Greeks  

Georgians  

Jews  

Kurds,  Yezidis  

Turks  

Azerbaijanis  

Would  you  approve  or  disapprove  doing  business  with...  (%,  CB  2011,  weighted)  

Approve   Disapprove  

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CB  2010:  PopulaQon  of  Turkey’s  general  aPtude  towards  Armenians?  Mean  value  on  a  scale  from  1  (completely  

negaQve)  to  5  (completely  posiQve),  by  household  Income  

2.3  

2.6  

2.2  

2.0  

1.9  

1.8  

2.0  

1.8  

2.0  

More  than  USD  1200  

USD  801  -­‐  1200  

USD  401  -­‐  800  

USD  251  -­‐  400  

USD  101  -­‐  250  

USD  51  -­‐  100  

Up  to  USD  50  

0  

Country  Average  

Page 20: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

CB  2010:  PopulaQon  of  Turkey’s  general  aPtude  towards  Armenians?  Mean  value  on  a  scale  from  1  (completely  negaQve)  to  5  (completely  posiQve)  by  

EducaQon  

2.0  

1.7  

1.7  

1.7  

1.9  

2.0  

2.1  

2.2  

2.5  

Country  Average  

No  primary  educaQon  

Primary  educaQon  

Incomplete  secondary  educaQon  

Completed  secondary  educaQon  

Secondary  technical  educaQon  

Incomplete  higher  educaQon  

Completed  higher  educaQon  

Post-­‐graduate  degree  

Page 21: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

А  recent  touchstone:    Nagorny  Karabakh  

 AKtudes  in  Armenia  and  Azerbaijan  regarding  soluDon  of  NK  conflict  from  

the  2011  Caucasus  Barometer.      

Page 22: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

4  

27  

5  

7  

40  

84  

81  

94  

4  

8  

9  

8  

4  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  in  Azerbaijan  without  autonomy  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  with  a  high  degree  of  autonomy  within  Azerbaijan  

Create  a  special  administraQve  region  that  will  be  jointly  governed  by  Azerbaijan  and  Armenia  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  an  independent  country  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  a  formal  part  of  Armenia  

Polarized  beliefs  on  sedlement  of  conflicts:  Ideas  for  sedling  the  Nagorny  Karabakh  conflict  -­‐  AZERBAIJAN  (CB  2011,  %)  

Definitely  favor   Accept  under  certain  circumstances   Never  accept   DK  

Page 23: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

18  

20  

4  

3  

2  

13  

15  

77  

77  

74  

8  

9  

17  

17  

18  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  a  formal  part  of  Armenia  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  as  an  independent  country  

Create  a  special  administraQve  region  that  will  be  jointly  governed  by  Azerbaijan  and  Armenia  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  with  a  high  degree  of  autonomy  within  Azerbaijan  

Have  Nagorny  Karabakh  in  Azerbaijan  without  autonomy  

Polarized  beliefs  on  sedlement  of  conflicts:  Ideas  for  sedling  the  Nagorny  Karabakh  conflict  -­‐  ARMENIA  (CB  2011,  %)  Definitely  favor   Accept  under  certain  circumstances   Never  accept   DK   RA  

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64  

30  

99  

37  

21  

26  

3  

4  

1  

2  

7  

7  

Azerbaijanis  

Georgians  

Armenians  

Georgians  

Azerbaijanis  

Armenians  

Armen

ia  

Azerba

ijan  

Geo

rgia  

Ethnic  intolerance:  Approval  of  doing  business  with…(CB-­‐2011,  %)  

Approve   Disapprove   Don't  know   Refuse  to  answer  

Page 25: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

APtudes  in  Turkey:  

Findings  from  a  survey  by  Turkish  Economic  and  Social  Studies  

FoundaQon  (TESEV)      

Page 26: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

TESEV  Survey  Overview  

•  Survey  focused  on  opinions  on  various  Turkish  foreign  policy  issues,  not  just  Armenia.  

•  The  fieldwork  for  the  project  was  carried  out  on  6-­‐14th  December  2010.  

•  1906  households  were  successfully  contacted,  with  906  of  them  refusing  to  answer  the  quesDonnaire.  

•   The  survey  has  a  +/-­‐2.54%  margin  of  error  with  a  confidence  level  of  95%.  

•  Link  to  report:  hkp://www.tesev.org.tr/Upload/PublicaDon/d40ab847-­‐5676-­‐4864-­‐8f99-­‐37fcb58ffc34/Foreign%20Policy%20PercepDons%20in%20Turkey_05.2011.pdf  

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Foreign  Policy  PercepDon  in  Turkey  |  KA  Research  Limited  |  December  2010  

p.29  

Reasons  for  supporDng  economic  rapprochement  with  Armenia  

39  

17  

14  

7  

2  

2  

2  

1  

1  

9  

14  

Good  for  Turkish  economy  

To  resolve  the  conflict  

Turkey  and  Armenia  are  neighboring  countries  

Good  for  both  countries'  economies  

People  living  in  Turkey  and  in  Armenia  have  a  common  past  

So  the  two  countries  support  each  other  

Would  be  good  for  the  economy  of  Armenia  

Would  help  to  reduce  unemployment  

Since  there  are  many  Armenians  living  in  Turkey  

Other  

DK/Refused  

Q44a.  Could  you  tell  me  why  you  support  the  economic  rapprochement  between  Turkey  and  Armenia?    

Base:  492  (Respondents  who  “strongly/somewhat  support”  economical  rapprochement  with  Armenia)    

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Foreign  Policy  PercepDon  in  Turkey  |  KA  Research  Limited  |  December  2010  

p.30  

Reasons  for  opposing  economic  rapprochement  with  Armenia  

21  

13  

8  

8  

6  

4  

3  

2  

2  

1  

1  

1  

14  

20  

Armenians  are  hosQle  to  Turks  

Armenia  is  a  small  economy,  would  provide  no  benefit  

Past  betrayal  

Because  of  Azerbaijan  problem  

I  do  not  trust  Armenia  

Genocide  allegaQons  

I  do  not  like  Armenians,  I  do  not  want  any  kind  of  

Territorial  demands  

Since  Armenians  think  only  of  their  own  benefits  

Since  it  may  harm  Turkey  

Because  of  the  past  

Religion  

Other  

DK/Refused  

Q43a.  Could  you  tell  me  why  you  do  not  support  the  economic  rapprochement  between  Turkey  and  Armenia?    

Base:  381  (Respondents  who  “strongly/somewhat  oppose”  to  economical  rapprochement  with  Armenia)    

Page 31: CRRC Armenia-Turkey Presentation 04.06.12

   

THANK  YOU!