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How Turkey is Perceived in Armenia: Some findings from the Caucasus
Barometer Surveys
June 4th, 2012 Yerevan
Outline
• Armenia-‐Turkey: General Overview and Economic relaDons
• Some findings from the CB surveys: – AKtudes towards Armenia-‐Turkey relaDons – AKtudes in Armenia and Azerbaijan towards soluDon of NK conflict
• Some findings from the TESEV survey
Armenia and Turkey Comparison
Armenia • Area 29,743 sq km • PopulaDon 3.2 mln* • GDP(2011) 10.1 bln • GDP p/c 3,100 US$
*As of Oct 2011 vs. 3.5 mln in 1914
Turkey • Area 780,580sq km • PopulaDon 74.7 mln*
• GDP(2011) US$ 772.3 billion
• GDP p/c (2011) US$ 10,444
* As of Jan 2012 vs. 13.6mln in 1927
Current Access to Turkey from Armenia
Source: Beilock, et al, 2007, AJPP
Foreign Trade (Exp & Imp) Between Turkey and South Caucasus Countries: Armenia trading trough Georgia?
18 57 93
118
142
240 255
207 287 271 241
429
503
572
4.9
12.3
45.9 59.8
41.3
42 34.8 39.6
37.9
40.2
60.4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan
*Calculations were made to comment the paper “Exploring Complementarities …” presented by Prof. Sema Kalaycioglu in AIPRG conference in January 2007.
Official StaDsDcs on Trade: Share of Turkey in Armenia’s Export and Import (% of total)
0.3
0.7
4.3
6.2
5
4.5
3.8 3.9
2.9 2.8
3.3
4.4
4.0
6.1
5.3
6.3
0.9
2.0
3.0
1.3
0.4 0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2 0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Imports Exports
Source: NSS of RA (hkp://armstat.am/file/arDcle/l_2nish_10_2.pdf)
Caucasus Barometer: Methodology
• Almost 2,000 people in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan (per country) starDng from 2004
• RepresentaDve of total adult (18+) populaDon • ProporDonate representaDon of demographic and
geographic groups • MulD-‐stage cluster sampling • Household selecDon: Random walk method • Respondent selecDon: Kish table • Face-‐to-‐face interviews in local languages
Caucasus Barometer 2006: APtudes on cooperation in poliQcal sphere with Turkey (% of total)
21.7
9.5
21.9
15.9
28.5
10.9
19.3
15.6
30.4
40.7
30.0
35.1
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
SC DK & Refuse
Fully supportive
Rather supportive
Neutral
Rather oppose
Fully oppose
Caucasus Barometer 2006: APtudes on cooperation in economic sphere with Turkey
21.7
10.9
19.5
16.2
24.1
19.1
20.6
20.2
28.6
59.4
33.5
43.5
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
SC
DK & Refuse
Fully supportive
Rather supportive
Neutral
Rather oppose
Fully oppose
CB 2009-‐2010: APtudes towards doing business with Turks 2009-‐2010 (% of total)
93
86
73
72
68
66
60
56
40
32
5
11
22
24
26
30
34
40
57
64
Armenians
Russians
Americans
English
Greeks
Georgians
Jews
Kurds, Yezidis
Turks
Azerbaijanis
Would you approve or disapprove doing business with... (%, CB 2011, weighted)
Approve Disapprove
CB 2010: PopulaQon of Turkey’s general aPtude towards Armenians? Mean value on a scale from 1 (completely
negaQve) to 5 (completely posiQve), by household Income
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.8
2.0
More than USD 1200
USD 801 -‐ 1200
USD 401 -‐ 800
USD 251 -‐ 400
USD 101 -‐ 250
USD 51 -‐ 100
Up to USD 50
0
Country Average
CB 2010: PopulaQon of Turkey’s general aPtude towards Armenians? Mean value on a scale from 1 (completely negaQve) to 5 (completely posiQve) by
EducaQon
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.5
Country Average
No primary educaQon
Primary educaQon
Incomplete secondary educaQon
Completed secondary educaQon
Secondary technical educaQon
Incomplete higher educaQon
Completed higher educaQon
Post-‐graduate degree
А recent touchstone: Nagorny Karabakh
AKtudes in Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding soluDon of NK conflict from
the 2011 Caucasus Barometer.
4
27
5
7
40
84
81
94
4
8
9
8
4
Have Nagorny Karabakh in Azerbaijan without autonomy
Have Nagorny Karabakh with a high degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan
Create a special administraQve region that will be jointly governed by Azerbaijan and Armenia
Have Nagorny Karabakh as an independent country
Have Nagorny Karabakh as a formal part of Armenia
Polarized beliefs on sedlement of conflicts: Ideas for sedling the Nagorny Karabakh conflict -‐ AZERBAIJAN (CB 2011, %)
Definitely favor Accept under certain circumstances Never accept DK
18
20
4
3
2
13
15
77
77
74
8
9
17
17
18
Have Nagorny Karabakh as a formal part of Armenia
Have Nagorny Karabakh as an independent country
Create a special administraQve region that will be jointly governed by Azerbaijan and Armenia
Have Nagorny Karabakh with a high degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan
Have Nagorny Karabakh in Azerbaijan without autonomy
Polarized beliefs on sedlement of conflicts: Ideas for sedling the Nagorny Karabakh conflict -‐ ARMENIA (CB 2011, %) Definitely favor Accept under certain circumstances Never accept DK RA
64
30
99
37
21
26
3
4
1
2
7
7
Azerbaijanis
Georgians
Armenians
Georgians
Azerbaijanis
Armenians
Armen
ia
Azerba
ijan
Geo
rgia
Ethnic intolerance: Approval of doing business with…(CB-‐2011, %)
Approve Disapprove Don't know Refuse to answer
APtudes in Turkey:
Findings from a survey by Turkish Economic and Social Studies
FoundaQon (TESEV)
TESEV Survey Overview
• Survey focused on opinions on various Turkish foreign policy issues, not just Armenia.
• The fieldwork for the project was carried out on 6-‐14th December 2010.
• 1906 households were successfully contacted, with 906 of them refusing to answer the quesDonnaire.
• The survey has a +/-‐2.54% margin of error with a confidence level of 95%.
• Link to report: hkp://www.tesev.org.tr/Upload/PublicaDon/d40ab847-‐5676-‐4864-‐8f99-‐37fcb58ffc34/Foreign%20Policy%20PercepDons%20in%20Turkey_05.2011.pdf
Foreign Policy PercepDon in Turkey | KA Research Limited | December 2010
p.29
Reasons for supporDng economic rapprochement with Armenia
39
17
14
7
2
2
2
1
1
9
14
Good for Turkish economy
To resolve the conflict
Turkey and Armenia are neighboring countries
Good for both countries' economies
People living in Turkey and in Armenia have a common past
So the two countries support each other
Would be good for the economy of Armenia
Would help to reduce unemployment
Since there are many Armenians living in Turkey
Other
DK/Refused
Q44a. Could you tell me why you support the economic rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia?
Base: 492 (Respondents who “strongly/somewhat support” economical rapprochement with Armenia)
Foreign Policy PercepDon in Turkey | KA Research Limited | December 2010
p.30
Reasons for opposing economic rapprochement with Armenia
21
13
8
8
6
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
14
20
Armenians are hosQle to Turks
Armenia is a small economy, would provide no benefit
Past betrayal
Because of Azerbaijan problem
I do not trust Armenia
Genocide allegaQons
I do not like Armenians, I do not want any kind of
Territorial demands
Since Armenians think only of their own benefits
Since it may harm Turkey
Because of the past
Religion
Other
DK/Refused
Q43a. Could you tell me why you do not support the economic rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia?
Base: 381 (Respondents who “strongly/somewhat oppose” to economical rapprochement with Armenia)
THANK YOU!