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Jeske van Seters Deputy Programme Manager Food Security, ECDPM Ten Years After the Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa: Dialogue on Progress in West Africa 11- 14 September 2013, Monrovia - Liberia
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Jeske van Seters Deputy Programme Manager Food Security, ECDPM
Ten Years After the Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa: Dialogue on Progress in West Africa
11- 14 September 2013, Monrovia - Liberia
CAADP successes and challenges
• Africa-wide consensus on critical role of agriculture for inclusive growth on the continent
• Strategic framework instead of just “one shot” programme
• Beyond 10% and 6% commitments, focus on broader agricultural transformation agenda
• Making a case for regional integration and coordination
• Promotes different way of policy-making (evidence-based, inclusive approach, …)
1. CAADP in a nutshell
ECDPM Page 2
• Rapid population growth, urbanisation & changing consumption patterns
• Emerging issues: climate change, land acquisitions & food price spikes
• Stronger engagement BRICS
• Impressive economic growth on the continent, but food insecurity persists
2. Evolving context
ECDPM Page 3
3. CAADP processes – where countries in different regions stand
Page 4 ECDPM
• CAADP processes well under way on the continent
• West Africa most advanced
* Percentages represent share of countries that have finalised these steps as per 1 April 2012
Government and REC launch process
Stocktaking growth and investment analysis undertaken
Compact signed Investment plan validated
Africa
66% 60% 57% 43%
Central Africa 44% 33% 33% 11%
Eastern Africa 85% 77% 54% 38%
Northern Africa 17% 17% 17% 17%
Southern Africa 70% 60% 40% 10%
Western Africa 100% 100% 100% 100%
Source: Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2011 ReSAKSS
4. Share of public agriculture expenditure – by country
Page 5 ECDPM
42 resakss.org
0
10
20
30
Beni
n
Bots
wan
a
Burk
ina
Faso
Cam
eroo
n
C.A.
R.
Chad
DRC
Cong
o, R
ep.
Côte
d'Iv
oire
Djib
outi
Egyp
t
Ethi
opia
Gha
na
Keny
a
Leso
tho
Mal
awi
Mal
i
Mau
ritan
ia
Mor
occo
Nam
ibia
Nig
er
Nig
eria
Rwan
da
STP
Sene
gal
Sier
ra L
eone
Suda
n
Swaz
iland
Tanz
ania
Togo
Tuni
sia
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Afric
a av
erag
e
2003-2010 CAADP 10% target
0
10
20
30
Beni
n
Bots
wan
a
Burk
ina
Faso
Cam
eroo
n
C.A.
R.
Chad
DRC
Cong
o, R
ep.
Côte
d'Iv
oire
Djib
outi
Egyp
t
Ethi
opia
Gha
na
Keny
a
Leso
tho
Mal
awi
Mal
i
Mau
ritan
ia
Mor
occo
Nam
ibia
Nig
er
Nig
eria
Rwan
da
STP
Sene
gal
Sier
ra L
eone
Suda
n
Swaz
iland
Tanz
ania
Togo
Tuni
sia
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Afric
a av
erag
e
1995-2003 CAADP 10% target
Source: ReSAKSS compilation based on various sources: National sources, IFPRI 2011, IMF 2012, and AUC 2008.
FIGURE 5.2!SHARE OF PUBLIC AGRICULTURE EXPENDITURE IN TOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE (annual average %)
• Only few countries have achieved the 10% target.
Source: Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2011 ReSAKSS
4. Share of public agricultural expenditure - by region
Page 6 ECDPM
• Africa as a whole at halfway the 10% commitment, ECOWAS above continental average
• Public agricultural expenditures have reduced compared to early 1990s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Annual average level (1990-1995)
Annual average level (2003 - 2010)
Source: Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2011 ReSAKSS
5. Agriculture growth rate - by country
8 resakss.org
inputs. Instead, we use the Malmquist index (Caves et al. 1982; Färe et al. 1994). !is approach is based on distance functions, which does not entail assumptions about economic behavior (pro"t maximization or cost minimization) and, therefore, does not require prices for its estimation. !e approach used here is fully documented in Nin Pratt and Yu (2008). Performance in TFP over time is analyzed across di#erent sub-periods: 1961–1970, 1970–1980, 1980–1990, 1990–2000, and 2000–2010, using
overlapping years to smooth the ends of the range. As for the PFP analysis, the unit of analysis is the country; the results are presented at an aggregate level for the entire continent (Africa), the "ve geographic regions of the African Union, four economic classi"cation groups, regional economic communities, and individual countries representing the largest and fastest-growing agricultural economies.
For the spatial analysis of agricultural productivity, we change the Pe
rcen
t
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
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RIN
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RWAN
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IGER
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GU
INEA
AN
GO
LA
Annual average growth rate CAADP 6% target
Source: Authors’ calculation and representation based on World Bank 2012.Notes: Sudan includes South Sudan because the data are not disaggregated for the two countries.
FIGURE 2.2!ANNUAL AVERAGE AGRICULTURE GDP GROWTH RATE "2003#2009$
Page 7 ECDPM
(annual average, 2003 – 2009)
Source: Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2011 ReSAKSS
Page 8 ECDPM
• African average 2003-2010 is 4.2%, ECOWAS just above continental average with 4.4%
• Production growth has increased 50% compared to early 1990s
5. Agriculture growth rate - by region
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Annual average (1990-1995)
Annual average (2003 - 2010)
Source: Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2011 ReSAKSS
6. Global hunger index
Page 9 ECDPM
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Annual average (1990-1995)
Annual average (2003 - 2010)
• Food security situation on the continent has improved only modestly compared to the 1990s
• Progress differs between and within regions, most progress in West Africa
Source: Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2011 ReSAKSS
1. Agriculture at top of priorities • Ensure quantity and quality of spending • Have political champion (Head of State, REC
President,..)
2. More comprehensive framework for agricultural transformation, away from ad-hoc project approach • PNIAs/PRIAS serve as ‘one stop shops’ for agricultural
interventions • Alignment of international development partners
3. More inclusive processes for policy-making and implementation • Keep up momentum • Involve broad range of stakeholders, e.g. public sector,
FOs, agri-businesses, transporters, banks, consumers
7. Keys to success: lessons learned
ECDPM Page 10
4. Strong institutional capacities are key at national and regional level • e.g. stability CAADP focal point, launch of
ECOWAP Food and Agriculture Agency, inter-departmental coordination, …
5. Time now to shift focus from financing CAADP processes to financing investments • e.g. promote value-chains, establish market
information system,…
6. Private sector engagement is critical • Make corridors work for agriculture and small-
holders
ECDPM Page 11
7. Keys to success: lessons learned (cont’d)
• Continental efforts to sustain CAADP and build new thrust: - mobilisation of domestic resources - leveraging private investments - focus on delivering results and impact
renewed commitments AU Heads of State in 2014. ECOWAS states could pave the way (Sep ‘13 Ministerial, Dec ‘13 Heads of State Summit)
• Joining forces for ECOWAS to accelerate ECOWAP/CAADP implementation
8. Way forward
ECDPM Page 12
