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Social Media and Social Media and Dynamics of Collective Action Dynamics of Collective Action Zeynep Tufekci Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Berkman Center for Internet & Society Harvard @techsoc [email protected] #freeAlaa #freeAlaa

Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

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Zeynep Tufekci presentation at AUSACE 2011 at Beirut.

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Page 1: Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

Social Media and Social Media and Dynamics of Collective Action Dynamics of Collective Action

Zeynep TufekciAssistant Professor

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Berkman Center for Internet & SocietyHarvard

@techsoc [email protected]

#freeAlaa#freeAlaa

Page 2: Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

Durable AuthoritarianismDurable Authoritarianism 30-40+ year Autocracies; common in 30-40+ year Autocracies; common in

MENAMENA

Scholars dub these “Durable Scholars dub these “Durable Authoritarianism”Authoritarianism”

Often deeply unpopular, unsuccessfulOften deeply unpopular, unsuccessful

Often the question should be not “why did Often the question should be not “why did they fall,” but why they did not beforethey fall,” but why they did not before

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Collective Action ProblemCollective Action Problem When a shared problem would be effective When a shared problem would be effective

solved by mass participationsolved by mass participation

But when there are:But when there are: high costs for individualshigh costs for individuals high cost of failurehigh cost of failure hard to communicate/organizehard to communicate/organize

This is often a key mechanism to “durable This is often a key mechanism to “durable authoritarianism”, i.e. create a collective action authoritarianism”, i.e. create a collective action problem for its populationproblem for its population

(Of course, patronage systems, ethnic divisions, (Of course, patronage systems, ethnic divisions, etc. also play a role)etc. also play a role)

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How to Create a Collective Action How to Create a Collective Action Problem:Problem:

Censorship: makes it easier to isolate, Censorship: makes it easier to isolate, crushcrush

Restrict means of organization: makes it Restrict means of organization: makes it harder for citizens to unite to solve their harder for citizens to unite to solve their dilemmadilemma

High cost of dissent: torture/jailHigh cost of dissent: torture/jail Minimize protest potentialMinimize protest potential

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States are resource-constrained States are resource-constrained actorsactors

A common mistake is assuming there is no A common mistake is assuming there is no limit to repressionlimit to repression

States are resource-constrained actors and States are resource-constrained actors and cannot effectively repress all their citizenscannot effectively repress all their citizens

In other words, authoritarian states must In other words, authoritarian states must play “whack-a-protest” in order to surviveplay “whack-a-protest” in order to survive

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Hidden Preferences and CascadesHidden Preferences and Cascades Authoritarian regimes create conditions of Authoritarian regimes create conditions of

“Preference Falsification” & “Pluralistic “Preference Falsification” & “Pluralistic Ignorance” (Kuran 1997, 1989), i.e. Ignorance” (Kuran 1997, 1989), i.e. people don’t share their true preferences people don’t share their true preferences out of fear/normsout of fear/norms

Perception is part of what shapes reality, Perception is part of what shapes reality, i.e. if people perceive an opportunity, it is i.e. if people perceive an opportunity, it is more likely to be possiblemore likely to be possible

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Some Mechanisms Social Media AlterSome Mechanisms Social Media Alter Makes it harder to censor news and Makes it harder to censor news and

information (national and international information (national and international both matter)both matter)

Makes it easier for citizens to signal Makes it easier for citizens to signal preferences and willingness en masse preferences and willingness en masse (which is important because individual (which is important because individual signaling is costly)signaling is costly)

Helps document torture/torturers creating Helps document torture/torturers creating counter-movementcounter-movement

Allows coordination/info flow during Allows coordination/info flow during protestsprotests

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Case of EgyptCase of Egypt Persistent organizing and efforts at least Persistent organizing and efforts at least

for a decade, many earlier protests (small for a decade, many earlier protests (small or crushed)or crushed)

Multi-factor as usual: Youth/elite Multi-factor as usual: Youth/elite dissatisfaction, labor movement, rising dissatisfaction, labor movement, rising food prices, economic stagnation, etc. food prices, economic stagnation, etc. Tunisia also very important example.Tunisia also very important example.

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This StudyThis Study Protestor Survey in Tahrir, February 2011 Protestor Survey in Tahrir, February 2011

((after Mubarak’s ousterafter Mubarak’s ouster; ; but while still tensebut while still tense))

N=1050 (Conducted by Engine Room: N=1050 (Conducted by Engine Room: http://www.engineroom.no/)http://www.engineroom.no/)

Snowball sample, dangerous conditions.Snowball sample, dangerous conditions. Is not representative of Cairo and it’s not Is not representative of Cairo and it’s not

possible or desirable to weight (lack of data possible or desirable to weight (lack of data about Cairo!) about Cairo!)

Caution:This is a survey of 1050 protestors Caution:This is a survey of 1050 protestors who took part in the demonstrations. Not to who took part in the demonstrations. Not to be overgeneralized. be overgeneralized.

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33.9%32.9%33.9%Attended Protests Before?

36.3%32.9%37.5%Present on First day of Protests?

51.5%56.9%49.7%Internet on Phone*

80%90.3%77.0 %Internet at Home***

5.3 5.65.1Education*** (1=no educ; 7=post-grad)

28.526.629.1Age***

Mean (std error)

MeanMean

TotalFemaleMale

Sample Characteristics

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Use of Information and Communication Technologies for General Purposes

62.958.564.3Print Use

93.694.393.3Satellite TV Use

92.293.092.0Phone Use

83.285.282.5Email Use

15.318.214.3Blog Use

62.266.660.8Text Use

1619.714.8Twitter Use

5260.449.2Facebook Use

%%%

TotalFemaleMale

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Use of ICT for Protest Purposes

57.552.159.3Print Use**

91.992.691.7Satellite TV Use

81.686.780.0Phone Use**

26.933.025.0Email Use**

11.515.910.1Blog Use**

46.348.645.5Text Use

12.818.211.1Twitter Use***

50.760.047.7Facebook Use***

%%%

TotalFemaleMale

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Model 4Model 3Model 2Model 1

Attended Protests BeforeAttended First Day of Protests (January 25)

Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.007 1.009 1.033*** 1.036*** Male 1.294 1.291† 1.091 1.062 Education 1.047 0.997 1.143* 1.063 Internet at Home 1.453* 1.318 1.602* 1.394 Internet on Phone 1.092 1.031 1.169 1.123 Text Gen. Use 1.128 1.156 Facebook Gen.Use 1.252 1.342* Twitter Gen. Use 1.536* 1.351† Blogs Gen. Use 1.354† 1.486* Email Gen. Use 0.799 1.020 Phone Gen. Use 1.137 0.683 Sat. TV Gen. Use 0.540* 0.815 Print Gen. Use 1.274† 1.677*** _cons 0.214*** 0.342* 0.075*** N 1050 1050 1050 ll -682.616 -67 -651.436 635.845 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 † p<0.10

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What the Previous Table Says:What the Previous Table Says: Internet at home is associated with higher Internet at home is associated with higher

levels of protest participationlevels of protest participation

But this relationship is actually mediated But this relationship is actually mediated by type of platform, for example, Twitter by type of platform, for example, Twitter with being there on First day, Facebook with being there on First day, Facebook having attended protests before.having attended protests before.

Satellite TV associated with lower Satellite TV associated with lower participation. (“Inferior goods?”)participation. (“Inferior goods?”)

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Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.012 1.035*** Male 1.437* 1.132 Education 0.996 1.075 Internet at Home 1.233 1.441† Internet on Phone 1.071 1.110 Text Protest Use 1.116 1.188† Facebook Protest Use 1.411* 1.199 Twitter Protest Use 1.414† 1.221 Blogs Protest Use 1.574* 1.360 Email Protest Use 1.313† 1.152 Phone Protest Use 1.531* 1.139 Sat. TV Protest Use 0.714 0.787 Print Protest Use 0.961 1.353* zf2fprotest 1.214 0.618† _cons 0.140*** 0.088*** N 1049 1049ll -662.300 -639.014 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

Attended Protests Before

Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)

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What the Previous Table Says:What the Previous Table Says: Social media use for protest purposes is Social media use for protest purposes is

significantly associated with protest significantly associated with protest participation, especially showing up on participation, especially showing up on first day.first day.

Effect for Facebook, Blogs, Phone Effect for Facebook, Blogs, Phone statistically significant, Email, Blogs statistically significant, Email, Blogs marginally significantmarginally significant

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Table 6. Whether Respondent Used Specific Media to Produce or Disseminate Visuals (%)

2.0Text

2.1Email

1Blog

25.1Facebook

5.1Twitter

4.0Face-to-face

3.2Print

14.7Phone

51.8Did not produce any visuals or pictures

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So:So: Facebook primary mechanism for Facebook primary mechanism for

producing/disseminating visual contentproducing/disseminating visual content

About half the sample participated in About half the sample participated in some form of citizen/activist journalismsome form of citizen/activist journalism

(Iran/Green revolution was probably first)(Iran/Green revolution was probably first)

Page 19: Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

Logistic Regression(Predictors: Use of Media to Produce & Disseminate Visuals)

Attended Protests Before

Attended FirstDay of Protests(January 25)

Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.012 1.037*** Male 1.230 1.079 Education 1.012 1.123* Internet at Home 1.367 1.543* Internet on Phone 1.070 1.158 No Production 0.922 0.755 Phone Production 1.199 0.603 Print Production 1.695 1.108* Face-to-Face 1.424 2.135 Twitter Production 1.322* 1.139 Facebook Production 1.685† 1.126 Blog Production 4.348 1.281 Email Production 1.448* 0.819* Text Production 3.467* 3.161* _cons 0.192*** 0.067*** N 1050 1050

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Previous Table:Previous Table: Twitter, Facebook media producers more Twitter, Facebook media producers more

likely to have been their on the first daylikely to have been their on the first day

Not very strong effects for previous Not very strong effects for previous protest attendance (also confirming that protest attendance (also confirming that many protestors were novices to street many protestors were novices to street protests)protests)

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Where did you first hear of the protests? %

Facebook 28.3Phone 13.1Sat. TV 4.0Face-to-face 48.4Other 6.2

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Attended Protests Before

Attended FirstDay of Protests(January 25)

Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.010 1.034*** Male 1.273 1.072 Education 1.025 1.135* Internet at Home 1.334 1.525* Internet on Phone 1.105 1.185 First on FB 0.830 1.020 First on Phone 0.438*** 0.502** First on TV 0.811 1.060 First other Media 0.924 1.008 _cons 0.281*** 0.065*** N 1050 1050 ll -675.694 -646.304 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

Protest Participation and Where first Heard of the ProtestsProtest Participation and Where first Heard of the Protests

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ConclusionConclusion Internet users more likely to be in Tahrir on January 25 Internet users more likely to be in Tahrir on January 25

– especially if they were social media users. – especially if they were social media users.

Effect even stronger for citizen/activists journalists.Effect even stronger for citizen/activists journalists.

First day important: key to collective action under First day important: key to collective action under authoritarianism. The worst position is to participate in a authoritarianism. The worst position is to participate in a failed protest.failed protest.

Facebook was key platform for disseminating word of Facebook was key platform for disseminating word of the protests – learning about protest from Facebook the protests – learning about protest from Facebook equal effect to learning it face-to-face.equal effect to learning it face-to-face.

Visual news production was very widespread.Visual news production was very widespread.

Social media appear as crucial components of the storySocial media appear as crucial components of the story

This, of course, does not take away from the bravery of This, of course, does not take away from the bravery of the Egyptian people.the Egyptian people.

Page 24: Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

Thank you! Questions?Thank you! Questions?

By Zeynep TufekciAssistant Professor

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Fellow, Harvard Berkman Center for Internet and Society

@techsoc [email protected]

#freeAlaa