STATISTICS OF

TRANSPORTATION SAFETY

by Courtney Quarles

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

Two types of Probability:

-Theoretical probability-Empirical probability

Theoretical Probability:

Applies to situations in which the sample space only contains equally likely outcomes, all of which are known.

Empirical Probability:

Applies to situations on which we observe the frequency of occurrence of an event.

WORDS TO KNOW

Computing Empirical Probability

The empirical probability of event E is

P(E) = Observed number of times E occurs

Total number of observed occurrences

Experiment: Any occurrence for which the outcome is uncertain, denoted by E.

Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, denoted by S.

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT NOT OCCURRING

The Probability of an event not occurring

The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that it will occur.

P(not) = 1 - P(E)

OR PROBABILITIES WITH MUTUALLY

EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Mutually Exclusive events

If it is impossible for events A and B to occur simultaneously, the events are said to be mutually exclusive.

Or Probabilities with mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF NOT

DYING ON AN AIRPLANE?

P (not) = 1 - P(E)

P (not dying in airplane) = 1- P (not dying in airplane)

P = 1 - (1/11,000,000)

P = 0.9999999091

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF NOT DYING ON A MOTORCYCLE?

P (not) = 1 - P(E)

P (not dying in motorcycle) = 1 – P (not dying in motorcycle)

P = 1 – (1/1020)

P = 0.9990196078

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF NOT GETTING STRUCK BY A

METRO BUS?

P(not) = 1 - P(E)

P(not dying bicycling accident) = 1 - P(not dying in bicycle accident )

P = 1 – (1/4919)

P = 0.9997967066

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF DYING

ON THE SUBWAY METRO BUS?

P (not) = 1 - P(E)

P (not dying on the subway) = 1- P (not dying on the subway)

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF DYING IN A MOTOR VEHICLE?

P (not) = 1 - P(E)

P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) = 1- P (not dying in motor vehicle accident)

P = 1 - (1/84)

P = 0.9880952381

WORKS CITED

Odds of Dying in Plane Crash. 2009. 6 December 2009.<http://www.rc-trucks.org/odds-of-dying-in-plane-crash.htm>

Britt, Robert Roy. “The Odds of Dying.” 2009. 5 December 2009. <http://www.livescience.com/environment/050106_odds_of_dying.html>

 Kebabjian, Richard. “Plane crash Info.” 2009.

http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm

Bureau Of Transportation Statistics. 2009. 6 December 2009.

<http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html>