TALEP ODAKLI TEDARİK ZİNCİRLERİ

SAP FORUM İSTANBUL 2014Basit Düşün Fark YaratTALEP ODAKLI TEDARİK ZİNCİRLERİKonuşmacı Adı : Emir BarınFirma Adı : SAP Türkiye

© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2

Not understanding what your customer wants…… can have major consequences!

15% average out of stock rate

75% of new products FAIL

Average trade promotion ROI: -19%

2-4 weeks to respond to demand change!

Companies are increasingly driven to sense and respond to customer demand


Manufacturer’s Business Challenges

Top business challenges§ High market volatility § Variation in demand is increasing.§ Lean supply chains and demanding customers

Are you experiencing?§ Poor forecast accuracy§ Product availability issues or Excess Inventory§ Low Supply Chain Planner Productivity§ Need for supply chain agility

An unprecedented amount of data (or signals) are available today to drive better decisions


Scalable and centralized in-memory database for BIG DATA§ Capture large volumes of downstream demand data (e.g. Point of Sales) and Market research data in

a single instance

§ Automate the process to cleanse, validate, harmonize and enrich data with additional information during data upload

Central source of truth for advanced analytics§ Pre-packaged analytics to instantly analyze large volumes of demand and market data along multiple

dimensions

§ Extend and create purpose built analytics and mobility applications to meet specific needs of various roles in the organization

§ Combine social media data with analytics like e. g. sales

Richer demand data for enterprise business applications§ Provide cleansed and harmonized demand data to supply chain, sales & marketing business

applications

SAP Demand Signal Management powered by SAP HANAOverview

SAP’s Demand Signal Management solution provides a holistic view of how customer demand and sales are materializing by analyzing massive volumes of external downstream data (like POS data and Social Media), market research data as well as internal data like sales


SAP Demand Signal Management:

q Enterprise platform q Integrate & consolidate demand signals q Provide a single source of truth

RetailerPOS

Social Media Market Researchdata (e.g. Nielsen)

Distributor/ Wholesaler

SAP Business Suite

SAP Demand Signal Management

Linking additional external information (e.g., weather)

SHARE DATA WITH OTHER ENTPRISE

SOLUTIONS

DELIVERED ANALYTICS

SAP Demand Signal Management (DSiM) on HANAPositioning

CUSTOM ANALYTICS


Point-Of-Sale Data

POS data takes too long to upload.

Its too late to take action

Before SAP DSiM

With SAP DSiMConsumer insight propagated & consumed immediately


SAP Demand Signal Management powered by SAP HANASolution Architecture

SAP Demand Signal Management

Data Upload, Quality Validation, Harmonization& Enrichment

DataSources

DataConsumption

Data Collection & Transformation

Core SAP HANA Repository

Retailer 1…

Retailer n Market Research Institutes(Nielsen, IRI, GfK,..)

Distributor/ Wholesaler

SAP Business Suite

Integrationto the

SAP Business Suite(e.g. ERP, SCM, TPO)

Data AcquisitionData

Upload

Market Research Data (Syndicated data)

Point-of-SalesData

Internal Data…

AnalyticsMarket Share, Sales Performance,

Promotion Insight, New Product Launch, On-Shelf Availability, Out-of-Stock

MobileMarketing Director

Key Account Manager

Social Media


Data Acquisition Options

SAP Business Suiteor BW system

All third-partydata sources

SAP Information Interchangeor

SAP BusinessObjectsData Services

SAP extractors

SAP Demand Signal

Management

Harmonization

Market Research(SDX)

Data Validation

EnrichmentParsing and Mapping in the Extractor

Consumer Sentiments(NetBase)

BadI for integration of Social Media data


SAP Demand Signal Management is relevant for your line of business

Sales

� Daily visibility into sales performance� Increase profitability,

revenue and market success� Avoid loss of sales

Marketing

� Avoid failure of new product launches � Defend your customer base� Increase promotion and price

effectiveness

Supply Chain

� Improve forecast accuracy � Avoid out-of-stock during

promotions� Reduce transit and warehousing

costs


Benefits of SAP Demand Signal ManagementSense demand, spot trends, and respond faster

Sense Actual Demand Signals in Real Time

Quickly Spot Market Trends and Deviations

Respond Faster to Demand Fluctuations

Access massive amounts of up-to-date POS data along side syndicated data and social sentiment indicators

Drill down into massive amounts of granular demand and market data to develop market insights and understand consumer trends

Ensure integration with core business and supply chain processes and accelerate end-to-end downstream processes

SenseAnalyzeRespond


Benefits� Predict market trends and improve responsiveness using up to date demand and market data� Develop deeper more comprehensive demand visibility with a more holistic market view � Eliminate errors and inaccuracies by relying on single source of truth

Sense actual demand signals in real time

Wholesale Level

Retail Level

Consumer Level

Distribution Network

YOU

Distribution Network

Consumer Level

YOU

Dem

and Signal M

anagement pow

ered by S

AP

HA

NA

Business Suite Syndicated Social Media Point of Sale

Consumer Data

SenseAnalyzeRespond

Collect, cleanse and harmonize real time POS retailer data and integrate them with internal, syndicated and social sentiment data


Quickly spot trends and critical processesImprove responsiveness, increase productivity, drive efficiency

Benefits� Improve responsiveness by instantly spotting demand issues and deviations with state of the art analytics� Increase productivity by empowering business users with role based reports/analytics on any device� Drive efficiency across your entire organization with role based

SenseAnalyzeRespond


Respond faster to demand fluctuationsIntegrate your downstream business processes

SenseAnalyzeRespond

Streamline downstream fulfillment process with improved demand visibility

Optimize inventory levels with more accurate forecasting and planning

Reduce lost sales with more precise identification of out-of-stock situations

Improve customer service levels with a deeper understanding of your customer’s behavior


Key Value PropositionsSupply Chain, Sales and Marketing

Promotion Effectiveness

Track promotion participation and compliance and track price variation per store

Market Share Analysis

Monitor market share changes and identify root causes for declines in sales

ForecastAccuracy

Monitor demand and market data and analyze historic sales and promotions to increase forecast accuracy

Out of StockReduction

Reduce lost sales by monitoring inventory levels and quickly spotting stores with out of stock

Product LaunchSuccess

Track store sales, price and promotions for new product launches and ensure stock availability

Sales Analysis& Planning

Analyze demand data and benchmark store sales to identify critical issues and prioritize sales visits


Key Takeaways

With SAP Demand Signal Management you can

Gain valuable, real-time insights to enable responsive, demand-driven processes for supply chain, sales, and marketing

Drive performance improvements in planning & execution e.g. promotion effectiveness, forecast accuracy

Avoid Lost Sales by promptly discovering currentlyoccuring or upcoming no-sales situations

DSiM in a nutshellDelivers powerful capabilities to manage and analyze massive volumes of demand data (Retail POS, market data, internal data)

3

2

1


Enterprise Demand SensingPredictive analytics that increase near-term sales while reducing stock-outs

Capture trends and service performance

Improve accuracy and reduce latency

Create effective demand-response strategies

• Compare and mathematically blend different forecast sources with demand analytics

• Characterize demand by analyzing historical forecast accuracy, bias and intermittency trends

• Track service performance by customer with order analytics

• Boost sales by predicting and reducing stock-outs with demand patterns and trends recognition

• Free planners from granular micro-forecasting through enterprise-scale predictive mathematics

• Find revenue upside opportunities by tapping data from downstream demand signal repositories (DSR)

• Lower repositioning costs through improved short term forecasts

• Improve production and deployment agility by translating demand signals to short term supply requirements

• Improve collaboration with downstream partners through embedded analytics, scenario analysis and collaboration tools


EDS is part of the SAP Demand Management Solution

Analyze DemandIdentify problems and focus efforts

Collaborative Demand Planning

Integrate demand signals and generate a consensus demand plan

Capture Demand SignalsIncorporate external and internal information to feed demand planning

Sense DemandDaily forecasting based on pattern recognition

Demand ResponseFeed other processes to deliver results


What about the short term forecast? Demand Sensing bridges the gap between planning and execution

Annual Budget Orders/Stock Transfers

Forecasts Used Statistical à Consensus

Data Granularity

� Deployment/Distribution

� Kitting/Packaging

� Order Fulfillment

� Logistics Execution

� S&OP

� Demand Mgmt

� Demand Planning

� Inventory Planning

� Production Planning

� Annual Budgeting Planning

� Annual Strategic Planning

� Network Design

� Demand Sensing

Short TermMedium TermLong Term ExecutionYears WeeksMonths Days


Accessing timely demand information from the supply

network is difficult or impossible

Planning and forecasting processes with high

volumes of data can be very time consuming

Decisions are often based on incomplete, inaccurate,

and often outdated information

Turning SCM Issues into Opportunities with SAP HANA

Deep visibility into large volumes of supply chain-

related dataAccess to real-time

supply chain-related data

Fast analysis and simulations

Make more profitable decisions with Supply Chain Info Center

Enable a demand-driven supply chain in real time with Enterprise Demand Sensing & Demand Signal Mgmt.

Accelerate critical supply chain processes with Sales & Operations Planning

SAP HANA

Issu

esO

ppor

tuni

ties

for S

uppl

y C

hain

s


What Does Demand Sensing Bring to Demand Management?

Supported Business Processes:� Demand Input for Sales and Operations Planning

� Enterprise Wide Forecasting

� Tactical Planning

� Supports Full Horizon Supply Planning

Attributes:� Uses historical seasonal trend to predict weekly or monthly sales

� Uses econometric models focused on historical sales

� Input for tactical consumption, supply, production plans

Supported Business Processes:� Finished Inventory Positioning and Distribution

� Fulfillment

� Packaging

� Final Production and Assembly

Attributes:� Uses multiple demand signals and order patterns to

predict daily sales

� Runs pattern recognition algorithms on optimal blend of current demand signals

� Development of short-term demand plan

Tactical Demand ManagementDemand Sensing

Daily/weekly disaggregation by item/location 2 months Weekly/monthly aggregation 12-24 months


Improved Short Term Forecasts will Supercharge your supply chain!

Deployment Planning

Transportation Planning

Inventory Optimization

Mid-Cycle S&OP

Automatically adjust daily deployment plans based on daily demand patterns in SAP APO Supply Network Planning.

ü Improve Planner Productivityü Reduce Expeditesü Improve Customer Product Availability

Achieve Benefits with Your Data

ü Automatically keep your forecasts up to dateü Keep your supply plan in sync with your REAL

demand

ü Improve Planner Productivityü Less guessing on transportation requirementsü Improve your Stock Transfer Orders

ü Improve forecast accuracyü Reduce Inventory Requirementsü Achieve High Service Levels

Feed SAP Enterprise Inventory and Service-Level Optimization with a more accurate forecast resulting in lower inventory requirements.

View SAP APO Demand Planning with a refined forecast based on the latest demand signals. (Weekly or daily)

Automatically adjust daily deployment plans based on daily demand patterns in SAP APO Supply Network Planning.


EDS identifies optimal blend of inputs to calculate demand

Adjustments

Disaggregation

Forecast patterns

Shipment patterns

Open order patterns

Optimal blendOpen order correction

Predicted future bias correction

• Daily outputs for execution systems

• Aggregated weekly or monthly values for planning and reporting

• Pattern Prediction

• Forecast feed to SNP for improved deployment

Output

Optimal weighting

Pattern recognition


SAP Enterprise Demand Sensing

What does SAP EDS offer:§ Real-time supply chain responsiveness to demand signals§ Granular forecasts that would traditionally have required an army of demand

planners to generate§ Frequent updates for enhanced deployment, logistics, and supply planning§ Integration with your existing SAP systems to leverage IT investment§ Embedded analytics and management by exception with a contemporary,

mobile user interface§ Rapid implementation and value capture

What does SAP EDS offer:§ Real-time supply chain responsiveness to demand signals§ Granular forecasts that would traditionally have required an army of demand

planners to generate§ Frequent updates for enhanced deployment, logistics, and supply planning§ Integration with your existing SAP systems to leverage IT investment§ Embedded analytics and management by exception with a contemporary,

mobile user interface§ Rapid implementation and value capture

SAP Supply Chain Control Tower


SAP Supply Chain Control Tower

Enable supply chain professionals to navigate, analyze and profitably manage the end-to-end supply chain in real-time• Increase on-time delivery performance to

customer• Decrease overall inventory levels while

reducing risk• Reduce supply chain cost• Increase supply chain agility

Common questions facedHow do I get visibility into my global supply chain performance?Where in my supply chain am I likely to face future problems?What are the fundamental drivers, or causes, of my performance?


Challenge

o Siloed data and processes, with no consistent view of the supply chain

o Cannot identify delays and react in a timely manner

o Missing extended visibility of the future plans combined with historical KPIs


What are the 3 key differentiators for SAP Supply Chain Control Tower?

Collaborate, communicate and monitor performance of the supply chain

Visibility across internal and external planning and execution systems

Quickly identify, evaluate impact and resolve supply chain problems


A Day in the Life of a Global Supply Chain Manager

Analyze situation in more detail

Understand global supply chain status

Do quick what-if analysis on how to resolve?

Collaborate with key peopleto fix that issue

Identify the most important issues


Understand current supply chain status with flexible dashboards

In one view you can see how your supply chain is being managed in most important aspects.

§ Provides historical and forward looking KPIs in a single view

§ Enables user configurable dashboards and analytics

§ Monetized impact of exception conditions


Get an overview of the top critical situations World wide, end-to-end

Quickly see exceptions along the value chain.For example:

§ In-house or external production shortfalls

§ Excess inventory situations


Find out more with Custom Alerts providing context and priority

Understand situation, impact on customers and analyze end-to-end material flow in context of alert


Analyze the complex situations in more detail

3

Ability to quickly analyze situations at multiple levels of aggregation

… KPIs and Key Figure data is always calculated on the fly by SAP HANA

… flexible chart types

1

2

By Location

By Product

Demand Supply Situation on time dimension


Make better decisions with flexible and fast scenario planning capabilities

Perform what if scenario planning

Evaluate and compare different scenarios


Agree on path forward, initiate issue resolution, and monitor results

Andrew StockGlobal Inventory Manager

Josephine Carrierexternal Transportation Planner

Gary PlanReplenishment Planner

Elizabeth Factoryexternal Supplier

@Gary: pls. re-distribute the inventory to APJ region where Customer Service levels need to be improved.

@Elizabeth @ Josephine: we need to talk about plans for cw12

I re-distributed inventory to Singapore in SAP

APJ looks good now!@Gary: Many thanks for your help!

ü


What are the 3 key differentiators for SAP Supply Chain Control Tower?





Advanced end-user exception management definition

Flexible alert conditions configurable by business users

Monetized measures allows prioritization based on business impact


Flexible model and KPI definition

37 SAP pre-delivered KPIs20 generic SCM, e.g. Supply Shortage %17 SCOR based, e.g. POF Delivery Date Accuracy

Build your own KPIs

Flexible Model for customer defined • Attributes • Hierarchies• Key Figures• Calculations


Case and Task Management to resolve issues efficiently

Enables exception tracking and task management for complex supply chain problems.

§ A case collects cause and effect information based on alerts or other identified data elements within Control Tower

§ Enables collaboration and task delegation with internal and external people

§ Powerful audit trail to see when, who and what has been done


Wrap up - Supply Chain Control Tower




Business Benefits• Increase on-time delivery performance to customer• Decrease overall inventory levels while reducing risk• Reduce supply chain cost• Increase supply chain agility

© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.

Teşekkürlerİletişim Bilgileri:

Emir BarınÇözüm YöneticisiSAP Türkiye+90(530)3911687

Technology

TALEP ODAKLI TEDARİK ZİNCİRLERİ