SXSW 2015 Digital Trends Session by Amy Webb

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  • Digital Future2015 Emerging Trends

    SXSWMarch 15, 2015

    Wednesday, March 18, 15

  • Amy Webb: 3 Things

    Digital Media FuturistFounder + CEO of Webbmedia Group, a digital strategy agency.

    What I DoResearch and forecast near-future tech and digital media trends.

    How I Do ItQuarterly tech-trends on-site, pop-up think tanks, project-based work.

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  • Where the trends come from...

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  • Six Part Forecasting Methodology1. Observations from the fringe

    2. Pattern Identifiers: Contradictions, Oddities, Inflections, Anomalies and Hacks

    3. Contextualize: Consumer = individual, business, organization, government, social movement

    4. Timing: Finding the S-curve

    5. Mapping the Trend Strategy

    6. Pressure-Testing the trend and strategy

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  • The 5 QuestionsFocus on your audience.

    1.Where/ how are people wasting their time?

    2.Where/ how are people having difficulty with technology?

    3.Where/ how are people looking for information?

    4.Where/ how are people stuck?

    5.How do people want to be perceived?

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  • Forecast the trend and dene a strategy at just the right time...

    Mainstream Use

    Convergence

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  • Forecast the trend and dene a strategy at just the right time...

    Mainstream Use

    Convergence

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  • 5Emerging Digital TrendsDeep DiveWednesday, March 18, 15

  • Attention

    You must find and harness your consumers attention in new ways.

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  • 12,000 people voluntary mobile data

    95 min/ day

    pick up 50 - 60 min/ day

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  • 151 - 169 mobile minutes

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  • < 2 minutes per pick up

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  • Our attentions are directly or ambiently connected to our mobile phones all day long.

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  • Checking email & social Read 900th #Meerkat story Looking at push notifications Checking the weather/ traffic Playing a quick game

    < 2 minutes

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  • < 2 minutes available:- 3 ..... seconds on homescreen- 5+ ..... push notifications- 4 ..... seconds deciding- 90 ..... seconds email/ texts

    Math

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  • You have less than 30 seconds to grab your customers attention.

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  • Nope. Actually.....

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  • Your readers make visual decisions in less than 3 seconds.

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  • Utility Immediately Clear

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  • PlatformsFind and deliver us content/ utility in
  • How can you make those 3 seconds count?

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  • Attention.

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  • Abbi & Ilanas 3 seconds

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  • What do Abbi and Ilana want at this moment in time?

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  • Lets ask their mobile data.

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  • What we know about Abbi and Ilana: Their schedules Their locations Their speeds What they read What they listen to How often they engage with your site How often they engage with your digital products What they click on What their interest areas are Whether or not they clicks on ads How theyre retargeted Who their friends are How tech-savvy they are

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  • Look into your mobile phone.Youll see a truer reflection of yourself than in any mirror.

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  • Attention Matrix

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  • Attention Matrix

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  • TEMPORAL

    Create experience for Abbi & Ilana at a particular moment in time, given that there are N# variables in time and activity.

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  • ACTIVITIES

    Create experience for Abbi & Ilanas activities at that moment in time.

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  • BEHAVIORS

    Create experience for Abbi & Ilana given their past and predicted behaviors.

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  • IQ/EQ

    Meet Abbi & Ilanas intellectual and emotional needs. (Which might be hard... or easy!)

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  • What is the _____ version of the digital experience for Abbi & Ilana?

    For all our possible audience members?

    Stuck in a cruise ship cargo room Throwing a kettle ball at a mirror at the gym Drunk in an Uber Not doing anything at work Trying to ignore strange roommate

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  • How will you capture attention this year?

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  • Tracking Attentionnot clicks or downloads

    Mainstream Use

    Convergence

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  • Tracking Attentionnot clicks or downloads

    Mainstream Use

    Convergence

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  • Put your audience first.

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  • Not your audiences devices

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  • Trend Into ActionAttention Strategy = How can you create a strategy to harness your customers attention on her devices?

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  • (NOT) Watches

    Theyre a second screen for phones. Thats about it.

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  • 401* Devices*as of March 9, 2015

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  • smartwatches.org

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  • 2015 - 2016 Devices intended for biometric reportingand mobile 2nd screens.

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  • 2018+Devices will have more cross-functionality and will be more widely used.

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  • {Implicit facts}Smartphones are addictive. People arent checking their watches 60 times a day.

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  • Heading towards a second convergence.

    Convergence Convergence

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  • Heading towards a second convergence.

    Convergence Convergence

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  • Trend Into Action

    Wearables Strategy = Monitor the fringe, watch for new products.

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  • Haptics

    Buzz me, maybe?

    3

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  • Haptics (n) from the Greek Communication via touch. Can be one-way, two-way or multi.

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  • Force Touch

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  • Thrustmaster TX Racing Wheel Ferrari 458 Italia Edition

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  • Pavlok

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  • Pavlok

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  • Foxtell Shirt

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  • Haptics will impact...

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  • Haptics: edging out from the fringe

    Convergence

    Mainstream Use

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  • Trend Into Action

    Haptics Strategy = Monitor the fringe, watch for new implementations and possible partnerships.

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  • Ambient Interfaces

    Our devices are doing more for uswith fewer direct actions.

    4

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  • Autocomplete......for intentions

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  • Google Now has created a Personal Information Layer thats indispensable.

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  • More than just Push Alerts

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  • If the alert isnt in the middle of the attention matrix, its just a meaningless interruption.

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  • Mumble! app on Android

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  • Haptic connection. Ambient information.

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  • Next, ambient interfaces into....... Retail apps & experiences.Productivity apps.Finance apps.Dating apps.Law enforcement tools.The right kind of news apps.

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  • Ambient interfaces: First Convergence

    Mainstream Use

    Convergence

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  • Trend Into ActionAmbient Strategy = How can you create an ambient environment to capture more attention?

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  • Speaking of ambient.........

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  • Messaging Platforms

    Messaging apps are the new homepage.

    5

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  • Line App (Japan)

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  • Line App (Japan)

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  • Line App (Japan)

    Nostalgia + Institutional Understanding

    Gen X = Sticker BooksMillennials = Emoji

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  • 1.7 million new usersevery day

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  • 126% growth$656m in revenue

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  • Company RevenueGannett $5,161 million

    New York Times $1,577 million

    GoPro $985 million

    Line Messaging App $656 million

    Twitter $479 million

    Madonnas MDNA Tour $305 million

    Perspective

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  • WeChat (China)

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  • WeChat (China)

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  • What is chat, exactly?

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  • Avoid SMS fees Have private conversations Asking for information Coordinating plans On my way home Please call me Social: friends, dating Peer-to-peer sharing Gossip Did you hear? breaking news Are you ok? Real-time collaboration

    Why We Message

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  • Niche Messaging Services

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  • WhatsApp: Free messaging

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  • Luka App: Chat + recommendations

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  • Tinder: Dating (etc)

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  • Venmo: Payments

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  • New chat apps offer in-app purchases.

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  • Ask: What will people pay for?

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  • Trying to help us win.

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  • Trying to help us one-up our friends.

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  • Also feeds our addictive mobile behaviors. Just $1 and you can get to the next level...

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  • Youre not trying to help us win.Youre preventing us from getting information we want.

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  • Chat/ Messaging: Next: feature of other apps

    Mainstream Use

    Convergence

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  • Chat -- immediate connections in real time -- will become part of wearables, other apps, etc.

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  • Next, convergence with...Brands.News media.Home improvement apps.Fashion bloggers. Personal finance networks.Hobbies: gardening apps.

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  • Trend Into ActionChat Strategy = Leverage your audience and their desire to chat. Build utility into your app or partner.

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  • Thanks.

    Thanks.

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  • webbmediagroup.com hello@webbmediagroup.com @webbmediagroup267-342-4300

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